How does 55% chance of group contributor + Double Talent event not = a perfect chance of doubling??

OWTWD1583OWTWD1583 Member Posts: 20
in General Discussions
So you go into a raider mission, you equip Negan, both Herschels, and Maggie, all fully powered up. So that's 55% chance accumulated. Now the game adds an event in which your chances of getting group contributor are doubled. That should equal 110% i.e. a guaranteed doubling.

Yet it doesn't.

What gives?

Comments

  • zbotzbot NML Legendary Moderator, OW Moderator Posts: 7,624
    That’s not how math works.

    See here


    Feeling Lost, Click Here!
    Supergrant
  • OWTWD1583OWTWD1583 Member Posts: 20
    You may be mathematically challenged. That is absolutely how math works if the algorithm treats them as cumulative, as it should. If not, then the value of the additional talent power-ups is significantly diminished.

    Since every other talent is cumulative (2 seconds plus 2 seconds crippling leg shot equals 4 seconds, not 2 chances of 2 seconds), this doubling talent should also be cumulative unless it has specifically been set not to be.
  • double_tapdouble_tap Member Posts: 59
    zbot said:
    That’s not how math works.

    See here
    To be fair, 55% doubled is, in fact, 110%.

    It would be nice if the doubling were cumulative vs individual. Using NG math, the full double heroes and NSMG gives you an 84% chace of doubles.
    1-(.6*.6*.7*.8*.8) =.839
    OWTWD1583Supergrant
  • DahliaDahlia OW Moderator Posts: 613
    This Link should be helpful in laying out how exactly multiple contributor talents work.

    https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead-ow/discussion/44652/team-with-multiple-scavenger-or-contributor-talent-how-does-it-work
  • TorgospizzaTorgospizza Member Posts: 1
    To be fair, "NG math" is standard statistics.  To calculate the probability of at least one individual event occurring out of many, (e.g. a hero's or weapon's doubling ability) you calculate the probability that no event occurs and subtract that from 1 (meaning the event did happen).  Or P(at least one success) = 1 - P(all failures) with all failure values being multiplied.
    NG_FilipeSharpie
  • OWTWD1583OWTWD1583 Member Posts: 20
    edited May 2021
    That's not standard, it's just one way of calculating probability. Since the token cost and opportunity cost of each additional slot are equal to the cost of the first slot, there is no indication that players should expect a calculation that leads to diminishing returns; players would rightfully assume the calculation is cumulative.
    Sharpie
  • Toddlaw89Toddlaw89 Member Posts: 1
    I don't think Maggie has double group opportunity.  Epic Eugene has 2.  And use Negans SMG, fully modified.
    Supergrant
  • FFFreakFFFreak Member Posts: 4
    I'm absolutely with the post creator. I don't understand individual calculation here. It should be cumulative.
    I think the nonsense from the last post can be ignored, of course both Hershels + Legendary Maggie + Negan as Hero (Eugene has also two talents and would be similar) = 20+10+15+10 = 55% so the calculation is correct for cumulative way. With Negans SMG added it would be 75% and also > 100 when doubled.
    I understand the dimishing return by individual calculation, but it should not be used.
  • DahliaDahlia OW Moderator Posts: 613
    @Toddlaw89 you can find all the information on which Hero's and Weapons have Contributor Talents/Mods on the Card Resource file (link below). The Resource File has a listing of each cards Talents and Mods. Below you will find a current list of all the Heros and Weapons which have a Contributor  Talent/Mod and the number they have that can be unlocked using the appropriate token. 

    Contributor Talents/Mods

    Legendary Hershel: 4
    Legendary Maggie: 3
    Negan: 2
    Princess: 1
    The Governor: 1
    Eugene Porter: 2 
    Yumiko: 1
    Hershel Greene: 2

    Daryl's Crossbow:1
    Negan's SMG: 4


    https://nxtg.ms/OWCardResource
    Toddlaw89
  • fumpifumpi Member Posts: 58
    So lets update my old math with the new hereos:

    Thought this information should also posted here (it's easier to find):

    let us take a deeper look in the percentages of the best doubler teams:

    without event:

    0,85x0,85x0,9x0,9x0,9 -1 (best team and weapon with double coins)

    ~47,3% chance of double coins

    0,8x0,8x0,85x0,9x0,9 - 1 (best contributor team and weapon)

    ~55,9% chance of double board progress

    so how does it looks like with the event? Instead of double the complete percentage, each separate percentage is doubled: 15% goes to 30%, so 0,85 goes to 0,7.

    0,7x0,7x0,8x0,8x0,8 -1 (best double coin team and weapon with event)

    ~74,9% of double coins with event

    0,6x0,6x0,8x0,8x0,8 - 1 (best contributor team and weapon with event)

    ~83,9% chance of double board progress

    As you may see, it's nearly impossible to get 100% of the doubler effect, but it's clearly a huge boost.

  • MaeLDuiNMaeLDuiN Member Posts: 39
    edited June 2021
    fumpi said:

    As you may see, it's nearly impossible to get 100% of the doubler effect, but it's clearly a huge boost.

    You are incorrect. It is completely impossible to get 100% doubler effect, as long as there is no heroes or weapons that give 100% chance to double progress/coins.

    Even if you had 4 heroes with 90% chance to double you won't get to 100%.
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