Supply vs. Deadly Run Analysis

I'd thought I'd apply some analysis to the debated topic of whether to go on deadly runs or supply runs when you are trying to grind for cans. There are some discussions asserting that supply runs are never worth the gas because you can get more golden and silver tickets on the deadly runs. I wasn't convinced that the increase in tickets could overcome the guaranteed mission bonus, so I recorded every crate for the past few days and applied some simple analysis. The assumptions and constants are detailed in the input file. If you have any questions, fire away!
Bottom line: it is very clear that if I want to grind for cans, supply missions are significantly more profitable than deadly.
Input File with detailed crate awards:

Analysis of results:
Bottom line: it is very clear that if I want to grind for cans, supply missions are significantly more profitable than deadly.
Input File with detailed crate awards:

Analysis of results:


13
Comments
To me, that complex chart just looks like: F + T + fairy-dust = magic-beans.
So I appreciate the bottom-line. Nice, and thanks!
Nice work...you would get along well with @OneLessTitan
I only do XP side missions anymore (have no need for supplies...only XP)...I can guarantee the XP gained from them is much better than doing deadlies...but like always it just comes down to what you're looking for!!
Thanks again for the analysis!!
XP is the limited resource in the game (tents provide almost nothing)(farm plots provide tons) so by your own analysis, you've proven that supply runs are garbage compared to deadly.
I'd really be interested in seeing your analyst of Deadly vs XP runs. Which has better xp and is the edge mollified by increases in other rewards?
At any rate, good job on the collection and analysis. I'm sure there are plenty people here that agree that chasing supplies is a worthwhile endeavor, so your data is certainly helpful.
The Undying Suvivalist--Founding Member and Prezident of the Empty Memorial Club
2725 Deadly Missions Completed Prior to the End of The Deadly Era
Nightmare Club Member--All 14 Episodes of Story Complete on Nightmare Mode (lvl 19 survivors)
I should hire you as an analyst lol
I hardly do any supply missions because I get supplies fast from either XP or deadly missions.
So I'm also very interested in analysis of XP vs deadly as mentioned by @lmfgunnut.
I am enjoying my time at a lower level and loving the journey. Happy hunting, everyone!
I don't buy 7500 tg crates, only massive amounts of 500, that could be a good test as well.
I love the XP runs because I can farm those without fear. But on occasion I will do only deadlies if I am looking for choice gear. To me that is the best way (usually on 1 or 5 min gas weekends). Or if I have video clips to burn. I think my unofficial numbers are 1 nice gold gear every 50-60ish missions. Or 1-3 on a weekend of farming deadlies.
Also my experience the 500 tg crates give me mostly green gear that matches my highest dude, blue is usually 1 level below sometimes equal, and gold mostly -2 to -1 never got gold gear equal to my dudes level, either that is rng, or my luck. But I have exchanged close to half a mill in crates ( thank you Lucille week)
https://twdnomansland.wordpress.com/crate-rewards/
YouTube Channel
Awesome collection and presentation.
The Undying Suvivalist--Founding Member and Prezident of the Empty Memorial Club
2725 Deadly Missions Completed Prior to the End of The Deadly Era
Nightmare Club Member--All 14 Episodes of Story Complete on Nightmare Mode (lvl 19 survivors)
Change that was missing from the What's New text: Deadly Exploration missions have been removed and replaced with normal missions.
Unfortunately, this thread might be dead. It might help everyone to let the NG staff know
that deadly explorations need to stay in the game.