Radio Pulls - Survivor Tracker: Data Collection - June 2016 Edition ( RESULTS POSTED)!!!

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  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    edited July 2016

    I wonder how some managed to pull common and uncommon survivors from a 15 call... :D

    Yeah, there's no way to account for user input error, or just flat out making up results. Not sure anyone would, but that's the only problem with the form...there's no accountability or ability to follow up to gain any further info or allow people to modify their results if they make a mistake. I highly doubt there is enough "bad info" to taint the results, tho. That's the only benefit to having people post their results, although it's a much bigger pain to tabulate. With either method, we're still not sure people are giving ALL their data, which is pretty important. Cherry picking what data is contributed isn't really helpful.


    Great work @Mark !!! So glad to see the results!
    @OneLessTitan Much obliged for your kind words.

    Just a general comment on the quoted above - This is true; although we have no definitive way to confirm the input of the data (someone making a mistake while entering their data for example); same can be said with other means of collection - unless we only use screenshots as a method of collection; but that would be so cumbersome to tabulate.. If we hit a certain collection data size, a margin of error is already built within. That being said, I can still weed out what I think is a wonky input; for example....
    it made for a good joke/prank and gave a few of our guildmates a good laugh was when a submission was made beginning of June to the form for a low level player, low level radio tent, pulled 3 max level 20's hunter, shooter, warrior legendary survivors from a 15 radio call..... that submission was made from Helsinki --- Oye Oye Oye!!! LOL
    mongo911
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @mark @OneLessTitan @blynknz help my brain out here. Collected data represents the per card chance of getting a particular survivor rarity.

    We cannot just multiply by three to get the per call percentage since that would put us at 300%. How can we use this data to determine the likelihood of getting a particular survivor rarity per call?

    Is it possible given the collection method to break down by highest rarity offered per call?

    Rather than look at all three survivors offered in a single call just look at the highest rarity? This won't give us the information about the per card chance, but may provide some clarity as to the overall chances of getting a particular rarity. It would require your data to be broken up on a per call basis.
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  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    That's the breakdown for the 15 radio call what you see is the % rarity you can expect for each "card game" in this case the 3 cards... That's why it's broken down and data input is nearly 800 for the 15 radio call... Otherwise the total would be 260ish which would then be results for the combined 3 cards....
    However way you skin the cat broken down to individual cards or combined 3 cards for the 15 radio all - % outcome very similar.

    I would treat it as one and not multiply by 3
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @Mark since we can only keep or scrap 1 per call, I'm looking to find the per call rates. Looking at the data, I could assume that legendary is about 7.5%, but it would be lower if some of those calls resulted in multiple legendaries.

    It gets far trickier for epics, since if the came with a legendary, most would not take it. I'd want to focus on how often Epic was the highest outcome, something I can't derive as presented.

    The reason this matters is that my tokens per radio figures will be impacted more by the per call rate that by the per card rate.
    DeadFamily Guild Elder, a Top 20 Global Guild

    The Undying Suvivalist--Founding Member and Prezident of the Empty Memorial Club

    2725 Deadly Missions Completed Prior to the End of The Deadly Era

    Nightmare Club Member--All 14 Episodes of Story Complete on Nightmare Mode (lvl 19 survivors)

    OneLessTitan
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    edited July 2016
    @Mark @lmfgunnut the data sheet shows a percentage chance on 15 calls to get a common and uncommon which is impossible.

    I know you know this as well as everyone else but this data is comprised of random people on the Internet inputting their options which may or may not be accurate.

    Based on the small percentages it's probably one person purposefully or accidently putting in wrong info but that aside the creation of the program and compiling of the data is superb!!

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  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    edited July 2016
    @mark were there 840 district calls collected rather that 280 counted in triplicate?

    The question is based on this thought, feel free to smack me if I'm off base. Across 840 calls representing 2520 individual cards, 2.5% were Legendary or 63 total legendaries. 63 across 840 calls is 7.5% of calls may result in legendary.

    Using the same approach, Epic would be 35.1% but this is where we fall off the rails since A similar approach for rare would result in 250%
    DeadFamily Guild Elder, a Top 20 Global Guild

    The Undying Suvivalist--Founding Member and Prezident of the Empty Memorial Club

    2725 Deadly Missions Completed Prior to the End of The Deadly Era

    Nightmare Club Member--All 14 Episodes of Story Complete on Nightmare Mode (lvl 19 survivors)

  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    DLich said:

    @Mark @lmfgunnut the data sheet shows a percentage chance on 15 calls to get a common and uncommon which is impossible.



    I know you know this as well as everyone else but this data is comprised of random people on the Internet inputting their options which may or may not be accurate.



    Based on the small percentages it's probably one person purposefully or accidently putting in wrong info but that aside the creation of the program and compiling of the data is superb!!

    @DLich
    As I mentioned, somethings are out of ones control, but I do build in a 3% margin of error.
    However, I do respectively disagree with you on the Common/Uncommon %s for 15 radio call pulls... in a previous collected data set from a local group that I know data input is solid (I think i might even have screenshots of their notebooks, talking about raw data, LOL) data shows (from ~1000 responses) = common: 3.0% and uncommon 3.7% from using a 15 radio call; granted this was in May and not the 3 card draw that is now... So with 3% margin of error and all other assumptions- 0.5-1.4% is within my error and quite plausible to occur considering all the factors in or out of our control for the study.
  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    @lmfgunnut 840 individual survivor selections chosen by people when they used the 15 radio call button. Out of 840 survivors chosen (when using the 15 radio call button); 21 of them were legendary.

    There were no cases shown where SLOT A: Rare, SLOT B: LEG, and SLOT C: LEG...... if so, that individual needs to go play craps at the casino, ASAP. :smile:


  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    @lmfgunnut . this is the part of probabilities that always stumps me. Its the way to describe the chance of something happening.
    Lets say each card had a 33.33% chance of getting a leg. If you have 3 cards and add them all together, you don't have a 100% chance of getting a leg. But you also have a higher than 33.33% chance.
    Mark
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    @Mark

    Can you present us with frequency of each combination of survivors received? Like how many calls resulted in 3 Rares?? How many with 1 LEG/2 Rares? 1 Epic/2 Rares?? etc....

    I'd be really interested in seeing that. Thanks!
  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    @OneLessTitan
    No problem I can get that output for you tomorrow morning; I'm just about to start movie night with wifey :)

    First thing in the morning I'll get to it
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    edited July 2016
    This is how I view and interpret the data set. The 840 represents two different samples: 840 Player Cards & 280 Radio Calls. The charts represent the data for 840 Player Cards Sample, but when determining the expected odds for "Successful Radio Call", we need to examine the 280 Radio Call sample. For a 15 Radio Call, what we are really seeking is 1 Positive Outcome out of the 3 chances in order to achieve a "Successful Call."

    There were 840 Total Survivor Entries for the 15 Radio calls, which means that was 840/3 = 280 Actual Radio Calls Made.

    280 Radio Calls
    21 Legendaries. Thats up to a 7.5% of a call resulting in a Legendary. (It's possible it could be less than 7.5% if two Legendaries were received in one call.)

    99 Epics - up to 35% of calls resulted in an Epic. (Probably less than 35%, since some of those Epics were probably in the same call as a Legendary, or in calls with two Epics)

    So, 21 + 99 = up to 120 Calls with a Legendary or Epic Survivor, or up to 42.5% of the calls resulted in an Epic or Legendary, but probably less accounting for multiple Epic/LEG in one call.


    280-120 = At least 160 or 57.5% of calls resulted in all Rare Survivors, which I would label an "Unsuccessful Call". Again, this # is probably higher though, accounting for 2 Epic/LEG in a call, as that % lowers, this % rises.)


    I view a successful Radio Call in two steps:
    Step 1: Getting an Epic/Legendary
    Step 2: Getting an Epic/Legendary of a Survivor Class that I want/need.

    Let's just assume that 35% of the 280 Calls resulted in an Epic or a Legendary, but you will only be happy with 4 out of the 6 Survivor classes (you don't want no stinking Scouts and Bruisers). Well, your "Success Rate" odds would be calculated at = 35% * 66% (4 out of 6 classes = 66%), then you'll only have an expected Success Rate of 23%.


    So it kind of depends on how you look at it, and use the data. The first step is getting an Epic or a Legendary Survivor, then you have to get lucky and hit on the Survivor Class you want.


    So this is another way to use the math: (assuming every Player Card can result in an Epic, Rare, Legendary)
    1. There is 2.5% chance that the Player Card will be Legendary. So that's a 7.5% (2.5%*3) chance that there will be one Legendary in the Radio Call. There's a .063% chance of 2 Legendary, and a .0002% chance of 3 Legendary.
    2. There is an 11.7% chance that the Player Card will be Epic. So that's a 34.1% (11.7%*3) chance that there will be one Epic in the Radio Call. There's a 1.4% chance of 2 Epics and a .16% chance of 3 Epics.
    3. There is an 83.9% chance that the Player Card will be Rare. So that's a 59% (83.9%*83.9%*83.9%) chance that there will be 3 Rare in one Radio Call, and a 70% (83.9%*83.9%) chance that there will be two Rare in one Radio Call.
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    edited July 2016
    So @lmfgunnut -- To help with your token per radio comparison, let's examine the expected Tokens from 1,000 15x Radio Calls (15,000 Total Radios)

    You would expect 590 All Rare calls = 590 x 32 Tokens = 18,880 Tokens
    You would expect 125 Calls with a Legendary as the best Survivor = 125 x 256 Tokens = 32,000 Tokens
    You would expect 285 Calls with an Epic as the best Survivor = 285 x 128 Tokens = 36,480 Tokens

    That's a total of 87,360 Tokens from 15,000 Radios, or 5.824 Tokens per Radio, based on these results.
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @OneLessTitan that is exactly what I am looking to determine.

    We might be able to use the chances we know for epics and legendaries to determine how many calls would likely result in 2 epics or an epic with a legendary which would allow us to discount the chances of successful pulls. We could assume that 1/5 of calls resulting in a legendary would also result in epic, similarly, calls that result in epic can be reduced by 1/5 since that many are likely to have a second epic.

    In this case that would pull the successful epic call down to about 26% of calls. Using your 1000 calls, we could expect to get 75 legendary (not adding in 2 legendary calls since I think they are a subset of 1 leg calls), 260 epic and 665 rares

    That gives us a total of 54,561 or 3.63 tokens per radio.

    we could split the difference and call it 4.7 tokens per radio when using 15 radios.

    I don't have enough data yet to say with any certainty what the percentage chances are for single calls, but my current average over 294 calls is 5.07 tokens per radio. The difference may not be great enough to justify the additional work.
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  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    @lmfgunnut --

    That's pretty much how I calculated it, all based on the %s from the thread.

    1. Since the Expected chance of getting 2 Legendary in 1,000 calls is less than 1 in 1,000, I worked off the assumption that all 125 calls resulting in a Legendary would give 256 Tokens.
    2. Since the Odds of getting all 3 Rares is 59%, then that's 590 of the 1,000 calls that will only give 32 Tokens.
    3. Since there are only 285 that didn't result in one Legendary or 3 Rares, I just inferred that those 285 calls came up with an Epic as the best Survivor giving 128 Tokens.
    4. That's how I came up with 5.824 Tokens per Radio.

    But let's lower that # to 5.5 Tokens per Radio for example purposes (whatever the # is, we can always adjust the values.) That means that....
    1. You are expecting about .92 Tokens per Class, per Radio.
    2. You could expect to upgrade 1 Trait from 4 to 5 in EVERY CLASS (250 Tokens x6) every 273 Radios.
    3. You could expect to upgrade 1 Trait fro 3 to 4 in EVERY CLASS (120 Tokens x6) every 131 Radios.


    Of course, these #s only apply to if you are ONLY SEEKING CLASS TOKENS. If you plan to keep any of your Survivors (especially Legendary), then your Tokens per Radio takes a big hit, but you have the unquantified value of gaining a new Survivor.
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