Tokens Per Radio (the math done for you)

lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
edited June 2016 in Strategy Discussion
Using the great statistical data on radio calls provided by @Mark I've crunched some numbers here. These are averages across unlimited pulls and assume that all survivors called are scrapped for tokens. Check out Mark's data here http://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/10990/radio-pulls-survivor-tracker-data-collection-june-2016-edition-results-posted/p1

Keep in mind that call data for single and five radio calls is sparse.

Using single radios on average will net you 19.99 tokens per radio (assuming upgrade and scrap technique is used for all common survivors)

((256*2.5)+(128*4.5)+(32*9)+(8*25)+(5*59))/100

Using 5 radio calls will net you 5.2 tokens per radio (this assumes some things not supported by the very limited data collected on 5 radio calls, YMMV)

((256*2.5)+(128*4.5)+(32*25)+(8*68))/(5*100)

Using 15 radio calls will net you 3.2 tokens per radio (normalized stats slightly using 86 for rare, 11.5 for epic and 2.5 for legendary).

((256*2.5)+(128*11.5)+(32*86))/(15*100)

We can all agree that no one wants common or uncommon survivors, so if you are looking for keepers, 15 radio calls are still the route to take.

However, if you are strictly after tokens, you'll get them 6 times faster by using single radio calls over 15 radio calls.

19.99 tokens per radio=1 radio calls
5.2 tokens per radio=5 radio calls
3.2 tokens per radio=15 radio calls

(NOTE: to earn 5 tokens per common survivor, you must have at least 4 tokens per class to enable upgrade before retiring technique)
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Comments

  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    Since it is my intention to focus on hundreds of single radio calls, I'll flesh out the numbers in the process.
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  • masmith93masmith93 Member Posts: 3,511
    Thank you, very helpful info.
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  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    @lmfgunnut thanks for starting this.
    But as I pointed out in @Mark thread. You can't use the 1 radio call leg results with any confidence. It was the result of 1 person getting a leg result so it is too skewed.
    1 radio should be the 15radio result / 15 (previous data collections show that its about 1/15 the 15radio total)
    5 radio should be the 15radio results / 3

    So that will change your results a bit
    Mark
  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    Also, can you adjust your results so that if I had 150 radios, what would I be best to spend them on.
    150 1radio
    30 5radio
    10 15radio
    I could do it, but since you have started this analysis :smiley:
  • MarkMark Member Posts: 253
    Agreed, and I point this out... Need more data collection for 1 and 5 radio calls... But we surely can't force anymore to do make those calls, lol
  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    We can if we fake the data to make 1radio calls look better :naughty:
    Mark[Deleted User]
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @blynknz can't use the higher call data for lower calls since there are zero common and uncommon on 15 and zero common on 5. I will have several hundred single radio calls as data over the next few weeks to get a better feel. I know that 3 of my 13 legs are from single radio calls, though I've only done 30 or so

    I don't think the percent chance increases with higher number of radios, I think the chances of getting a bottom tier survivor just get rolled up into the next level. Epic and leg will be the same across all types of calls.

    Even if you use much smaller % for leg and epic, single radio calls come out ahead for tokens per radio.
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  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    edited June 2016
    Since the update, I've done 55 single radio calls. I've gotten 2 rare, 2 uncommon, and 51 common. We will see what that looks like at 3-400. I am keeping class and level data, but I don't think it matters that much.
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    Mark
  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    Im sure previous research (before the change to 3 card pulls) has shown that 15radio was about 7.5% and 1radio was about 0.5 (7.5/15).
  • PapacasPapacas Member Posts: 416
    Hi. I am not saying the math is wrong, by all means, but perhaps I do not understand it. I just did a 1 radio call and I got a Common survivor. It would give me 2 tokens (2T) if I was to let him go straight ahead, which I did not. So I promoted him for 6T and I could let him to go for 8T. If I was to upgrade his 2 traints, it would cost me 16*2T and then I would have to promote him too, and if I am not wrong I would get 32T for him when he was to become a rare. So no gain for upgrading/promoting right?

    When you say 19.99 tokens per radio on 1 Calls, I do not see how you get those numbers, or are you factoring the possibility of getting Common and Rare (or more) survivors as well?

    Cheers
  • manicornmanicorn Member Posts: 45
    I just noticed that I only received a net gain of 2T after promotion. Yesterday I was getting a net gain of 5T.

    Was something changed overnight with how much it cost to promote and retire a common/uncommon survivor?
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @Papacas it looks like they implemented a nerf overnight to break the advantage of using single radios. Cost was increased from 4 to 6 for upgrade of common survivors. The refund was also reduced from 9 to 8

    I am usually on the side of next games, but this change is clearly intended to drive people to use more radios and makes me sad.

    They will probably view it as eliminating an exploit, but it creates a completely different dynamic for common survivors been applied to any other type. The cost of upgrading a common survivor is now out of line as compared to other rarities. It's already cost twice as much when compared to scrap value, but now is three times as much to upgrade .

    Despite this aggressive maneuver to eliminate player advantage, the average tokens her radio or single call still sits at around 18 tokens per radio with a single radio call unless they greatly increased the tokens provided for other rarity levels. Over the course of hundreds or thousands of radios you will always be better off doing single radio calls if you're only concern is token accumulation.
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  • PapacasPapacas Member Posts: 416
    lmfgunnut said:

    @Papacas it looks like they implemented a nerf overnight to break the advantage of using single radios. Cost was increased from 4 to 6 for upgrade of common survivors. The refund was also reduced from 9 to 8



    I am usually on the side of next games, but this change is clearly intended to drive people to use more radios and makes me sad.



    They will probably view it as eliminating an exploit, but it creates a completely different dynamic for common survivors been applied to any other type. The cost of upgrading a common survivor is now out of line as compared to other rarities. It's already cost twice as much when compared to scrap value, but now is three times as much to upgrade .



    Despite this aggressive maneuver to eliminate player advantage, the average tokens her radio or single call still sits at around 18 tokens per radio with a single radio call unless they greatly increased the tokens provided for other rarity levels. Over the course of hundreds or thousands of radios you will always be better off doing single radio calls if you're only concern is token accumulation.

    Thanks for your reply. While i still don't fully understand how you get to 18 tokens per radio, i will take your word fir it, hehehe. But i assume that now if you get an uncommon survivor it makes no sense to promote ir upgrade anything right?
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @blynknz I believe you may be correct about single radio call percentage. I made the argument at one point that 15 radio calls needed to be at least 15 times the percentage of a single radio call in order to be worthwhile, but I do not believe the data supported that it was

    According to this post from May 2016, the weekend event full rate for legendary's was about 10% It is possible that the percentage was only increased slightly, but I believe it to be double the normal rate. If doubled the odds are better using single radio calls, if not then they are about equal

    http://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/10237/weekend-event-results-increased-epic-legendary-survivors-may-2016/p1
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  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @Papacas you should not upgrade any survivors if you plan to scrap them at this point. The number I got for single radio calls includes small chances of getting rare epic and legendary for a very low cost. Since the minimum you can get is to her radio if you were to find a common survivor anything higher than a common survivor drives the average way up. @blynknz is pointing out that the percentages of hire rarity survivors is much lower than the figures are used, which will drive the average down. However, even at much lower percentages such as have a person or a legendary the average token payout per radio is still around 10, making it a better deal. I will have more information about actual statistics of single radio calls in a few weeks.
    DeadFamily Guild Elder, a Top 20 Global Guild

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  • manicornmanicorn Member Posts: 45
    edited June 2016
    Putting all the statistics aside you can do basic math and use logic and simple terms and look at it this way:

    With 1 radio pull you are getting at minimum a common survivor.
    Scrap cost would be 2T so a minimum of 2x15 radios 30T as comparable to a 15 radio pull

    With a 15 radio pull you are getting a minimum of a rare and that equals 32T

    So at minimum a 15 radio pull gives you AT LEAST 2 more Tokens at this point.

    BUT... most likely with 15 ONE radio pulls you are going to pull an Uncommon survivor and scrap for 8 which will bring your 30T to 36T. (14 common and 1 uncommon)

    And if you get a Rare in the mix you go way up in the Token per radio.

    And if you want to argue that with a 15 radio pull you can get an epic or a legendary... why would you scrap them? Unless you have 8 of a class that are all epic and legendary (if you do I'm jealous) why would you scrap them?

    Sooo... I still think if you are going straight Tokens 1 radio pulls are still the best route in my opinion.
    lmfgunnutFireDragon
  • lmfgunnutlmfgunnut Member Posts: 1,636
    @manicorn thank you for the no nonsense simplified explanation I sometimes get too wrapped up in the actual numbers and fail to make clear the basic benefit
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    manicorn
  • PapacasPapacas Member Posts: 416
    @lmfgunnut Thanks a lot for your replies. I get the idea now. It was hard but it's done, hehe. Well since I have my team of legendary survivors pretty much done (just 1 Scout and Bruiser but I don't really care to make them 3 each at this point), I will take your standings and use only 1 radio pulls, and see if I can promote my epic shooter and make the other legendary chars stronger.

    Cheers
  • DakaminDakamin Member Posts: 108
    It is true that single radio calls has the best potential for MORE tokens.

    However, the downfall is that a significant number of those tokens will be for classes that are not used in your primary team. I just used 15 radios for single radio calls and got bruiser and scout for a total of 6 calls - so almost half of the calls wasted on classes that even if I do upgrade will not make it to my A Team.

    Whereas you may get less tokens going the 15radio call route, you at least have some degree of control over which tokens you will receive. Food for thought. Quality over quantity.
    manicorn
  • manicornmanicorn Member Posts: 45
    Dakamin said:

    It is true that single radio calls has the best potential for MORE tokens.

    However, the downfall is that a significant number of those tokens will be for classes that are not used in your primary team. I just used 15 radios for single radio calls and got bruiser and scout for a total of 6 calls - so almost half of the calls wasted on classes that even if I do upgrade will not make it to my A Team.

    Whereas you may get less tokens going the 15radio call route, you at least have some degree of control over which tokens you will receive. Food for thought. Quality over quantity.

    That is another way of looking at it. I guess there really is no way that totally trumps the other in collecting tokens. You can go for quantity and get as many as you can with 1 radio calls or be more quality based and go with 15 radio calls.

    I guess for me I'm in the minority and use ALL classes. I use my bruisers for outposts. I also like to have one strong scout for special missions and also I like to use my scout just for fun when I want a challenge.

    So I guess you have to just decide for yourself what is best for you.

  • DazDaz Member Posts: 20
    Dakamin, just noted what I was going to post. I spent a lot of tokens initially using 1 radio calls. But now the nerf to 1 radio calls has decisively swung the door in the other direction. The typical player should take note of which survivors he wants to trait promote and tally up the class token budget required. It will not be evenly distributed across classes and that mandates use of the 15 radio call, given the miniscule token/radio ratio advantage held by the 1 radio method.

    IMO, NG made a serious mistake nerfing the 1 radio calls. Using 1 radio calls benefits mainly lower tier players that have basic upgrade needs across many survivors, as opposed to developed players that are seeking to min/max. Using 1 radio calls was also very r/t intensive. In general, it is a bad design decision to harm your lower tier/casual player base. Something you should think about next time, NG.
    LadyAquila
  • SlayerSectSlayerSect Member Posts: 634
    Our guild had figured it would be better to go the 1 radio route, if tokens were what you were after.

    That said, it is nice to see these numbers. Thank you for this.

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  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    The same was for xp. It was better to do 1 radio calls to get the XP if that is all you were after.
  • ShadyShady Member Posts: 31
    You know I have to say, I played WOW for a decade and the people on this forum are leaps and bounds more helpful and friendly!
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    bump

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  • sentinelsentinel Member Posts: 1
    manicorn said:

    Dakamin said:

    It is true that single radio calls has the best potential for MORE tokens.

    However, the downfall is that a significant number of those tokens will be for classes that are not used in your primary team. I just used 15 radios for single radio calls and got bruiser and scout for a total of 6 calls - so almost half of the calls wasted on classes that even if I do upgrade will not make it to my A Team.

    Whereas you may get less tokens going the 15radio call route, you at least have some degree of control over which tokens you will receive. Food for thought. Quality over quantity.

    That is another way of looking at it. I guess there really is no way that totally trumps the other in collecting tokens. You can go for quantity and get as many as you can with 1 radio calls or be more quality based and go with 15 radio calls.

    I guess for me I'm in the minority and use ALL classes. I use my bruisers for outposts. I also like to have one strong scout for special missions and also I like to use my scout just for fun when I want a challenge.

    So I guess you have to just decide for yourself what is best for you.

    The math is simple. For each pull with 1 radio, you get a 1/6 chance of getting the class you want. For 2 radios its 2/6 (1/3), and for 3 radios is 3/6 (1/2).

    So, IF you are targeting a specific class. You will need to multiply the number of tokens you receive by that percentage. So...

    19.99 tokens per radio=1 radio calls ---> 19.99/6 = 3.33
    5.2 tokens per radio=5 radio calls ---> 5.2/3 = 1.73
    3.2 tokens per radio=15 radio calls ---> 3.2/2 = 1.6

    It brings the odds much closer, but still gives you more tokens for your preferred class (whatever that might be) if you use single radio calls. You'll get your upgrade about twice as fast. Of course, try convincing anybody playing roulette in Vegas that red and black have the same odds and you'll see where the trouble lies. Use of this strategy will only work in the long run. Most people won't believe it and will adjust what they think happens off of a few radios.

    I use the single radio calls and only play a few times a day. I've used about 60 radios and made over 200 tokens. This includes having one radio to pull a rare, and I also get a decent amount of uncommons.

    Just came and logged on to this forum only to play the math game (and use someone else's data). Glad I could contribute and enjoy folks!
  • dylanarenadylanarena Member Posts: 78
    sentinel said:


    The math is simple. For each pull with 1 radio, you get a 1/6 chance of getting the class you want. For 2 radios its 2/6 (1/3), and for 3 radios is 3/6 (1/2).

    Just a slight correction to this:

    For a 5-radio call, the probability that you will get at least one survivor of a specific class is not 2/6; it's 1 - (5/6 * 5/6) = .31.
    And for a 15-radio call, the probability of getting at least one preferred-class survivor isn't 3/6; it's 1 - (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) = .42.

    In general, when thinking about probability, it's helpful to start by thinking, "How likely is it that I'll get screwed?" Then you subtract that probability from 1 to find the probability that you *won't* get screwed.

    In this case, we start by thinking about the probability that you will get NO survivors of your preferred class. For that to happen in a 5-radio call, you'd have to get any of the other five classes twice. The probability that each survivor you pull WON'T be the class you want is 5/6, and because the two pulls are (presumably) independent of each other (i.e., whether you get your preferred class on one doesn't affect whether you do on the other), the probability that neither survivor is the class you want is (5/6 * 5/6). This is the probability that we'll get screwed in a 5-radio call. Then we subtract that from 1 to get (1 - 5/6 * 5/6). The 15-radio call follows the same logic.
    Wraith
  • DCBMETDCBMET Member Posts: 392
    No wonder staticians are so dreary.
  • FOXFOX Member Posts: 99
    lmfgunnut said:

    Using the great statistical data on radio calls provided by @Mark I've crunched some numbers here. These are averages across unlimited pulls and assume that all survivors called are scrapped for tokens. Check out Mark's data here http://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/10990/radio-pulls-survivor-tracker-data-collection-june-2016-edition-results-posted/p1



    Keep in mind that call data for single and five radio calls is sparse.



    Using single radios on average will net you 19.99 tokens per radio (assuming upgrade and scrap technique is used for all common survivors)



    ((256*2.5)+(128*4.5)+(32*9)+(8*25)+(5*59))/100



    Using 5 radio calls will net you 5.2 tokens per radio (this assumes some things not supported by the very limited data collected on 5 radio calls, YMMV)



    ((256*2.5)+(128*4.5)+(32*25)+(8*68))/(5*100)



    Using 15 radio calls will net you 3.2 tokens per radio (normalized stats slightly using 86 for rare, 11.5 for epic and 2.5 for legendary).



    ((256*2.5)+(128*11.5)+(32*86))/(15*100)



    We can all agree that no one wants common or uncommon survivors, so if you are looking for keepers, 15 radio calls are still the route to take.



    However, if you are strictly after tokens, you'll get them 6 times faster by using single radio calls over 15 radio calls.



    19.99 tokens per radio=1 radio calls

    5.2 tokens per radio=5 radio calls

    3.2 tokens per radio=15 radio calls



    (NOTE: to earn 5 tokens per common survivor, you must have at least 4 tokens per class to enable upgrade before retiring technique)


    but you also have the heroes statistics with the various calls?

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