[ANALYSIS] Walker, equipment, and survivor progression

JayZ

EDIT (5/23/17): This appears to be fixed.
- See the official announcement here: http://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/26158/changes-to-end-game-stats#latest
- See the official discussion thread here: http://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/26159/changes-to-end-game-stats-discussion-thread#latest
- I have not conducted an updated analysis with the new numbers, but hope to get to this by the end of the week to let everyone know if the numbers are lining up better.

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This is going to be a very long post, so bear with me. Most of you guys have seen my other post (click here), that does a bit of analysis about equipment progression from level 20-24. This is an updated version of that analysis, which more comprehensively looks at equipment, survivor stats, AND zombie stats.

The tl;dr version of this is: you should NOT upgrade your survivors/equipment from level 20 to 21 if you have not already done so. There are some balance issues that make it so you can't get as far in challenges, which I think we all knew anecdotally, but the rest of my post will show the data that supports this. If you have an amazing team of level 20s and have nothing else to do, it might be worth your time to start upgrading equipment to level 21, but SAVE your survivor upgrades until the starting point in the challenge (or the balance issues I discuss here) are addressed.

To summarize:
1. Walker health always increases at the same rate from level 20-30 (19%). When you look at survivor/equipment damage together, level 17-20 survivors with level 20-23 gear experience damage increases at a rate of 17.5%. Level 21 survivors with level 24 gear experience a damage increase of 15.0%.
2. Walker damage always increases at the same rate from level 20-30 (16%). When you look at survivor/equipment health together, level 17-20 survivors with level 20-23 gear experience health increases at a rate of 15.5%. Level 21 survivors with level 24 gear experience a health increase of 12.8%.
3. Points 1 and 2 mean that you get WORSE returns for upgrading from level 20 to 21 (survivors) and from level 23 to 24 (gear). This debunks the notion that a level 21 survivor can get as far (relative to their starting point) as a level 20 survivor. Not only are there growing pains when you upgrade to level 21 (unless you're obscenely rich, it'll take a lot of time/resources to upgrade your survivors, find base level 21 gear with the right traits, and upgrade that gear), but EVEN AFTER the grind, you SHOULD NOT do as well as a player with level 20 survivors because of how the numbers scale. This is wrong.

What can we do? (because complaining without proposing solutions can lead to bad things; read my thread about how to complain intelligently by clicking here)
1. Make armor/weapon upgrade values consistent with before (19% increase) so that level 21 survivors with level 24 gear can make it AS FAR (relatively) as a level 20 survivor with level 23 gear.
2. To ease the short-term burdens of upgrading/transitioning and actually give end gamers an incentive to reach the end game more quickly, let players with level 21 survivors start at RSL 14 instead of 15 (aka "The 69 Solution" - where the starting point is calculated as 69% of your top survivors' level instead of 70%).

By now, I've shared all of the main points, so you can stop here if you want. If you're a data geek, you can keep reading to see the tables that I created. Big shoutout to @OneLessTitan's website (click here), as well as other forum users, for helping me gather this data.

The first few tables below will illustrate point #1 (walker health vs. survivor/equipment damage):

Walker health always increases at the same rate from level 20-30 (19%).


Equipment damage increased at the same rate from level 20-23 (19%), but equipment damage increases at a LOWER rate from level 23-24 (15%).


Survivor damage increases at a LOWER rate from level 17-21 (15%).


Taken together, survivor/equipment damage increases at a rate of 17.5% except for end gamers which increase at a rate of 15.0%.



The next few tables below will illustrate point #2 (walker damage vs. survivor/equipment health):

Walker damage always increases at the same rate from level 20-30 (16%).


Equipment health increased at the same rate from level 20-23 (19%), but equipment health increases at a LOWER rate from level 23-24 (12.8%).


Survivor health increases at a LOWER rate from level 17-21 (12-12.8%), with melee survivors seeing higher increases.


Taken together, survivor/equipment damage increases at a rate of 15.5% except for end gamers which increase at a rate of 12.8%.



Some footnotes:
1. I only analyze legendary survivors/gear. I do not account for body shots, pink stars, etc.
2. I do not factor in the Lethal or Health Boost traits into my calculations.
3. As far as I know, the numbers I use should be accurate as of 4/18. Even if they are slightly off, they should still be directionally correct.
4. Note that at high levels, armor increase rates matter less, because every walker attack will result in critical damage (so increasing armor at a higher rate than walker damage is NOT a big deal).

JayZ

P.S. For all of you high spenders at the top of the leaderboard who are affected by these changes and found this information to be useful, iTunes gift card donations are welcome (just kidding)

DoTak

@JayZ
I gave you an awesome even though I haven't read this yet. Two reasons, first, been looking forward to this, and second, perfect timing as I'm heading for the crapper and now have fresh reading material. So tired of the same old sticky men's magazines

JayZ

DoTak said:

@JayZ
I gave you an awesome even though I haven't read this yet. Two reasons, first, been looking forward to this, and second, perfect timing as I'm heading for the crapper and now have fresh reading material. So tired of the same old sticky men's magazines

If literally nothing else comes out of doing all of this work, this post made it worth it. Thanks for the good laugh - hopefully the post itself lives up to your expectations!

TheLostOnes

@JayZ thanks for doing this.

As I have said elsewhere, NG has screwed up big time. For loyal long-term customers yearning for progression after months of being maxed out, this is a massive slap in the face.

Shut_Up

It's a disgrace the way NG treats its customers by constantly abusing us with "balance changes" that screw us. There is no incentive to upgrade your survivors unless 21 is your lucky number.

I'm starting to believe that NG is based in Finland because if they were an American company our over controlling government would regulate the hell out of this company and get them back in line.

Guapo

@JayZ thanks for putting all this in one simple place. Seems like an easy fix, maybe it is 'coming soon".

DLich

@JayZ this is a great post!!!

Players knew prior to 2.5 how the Walker health and strength progressed. The key factor into seeing how we're at a disadvantage was when we saw just how little our gear upgrades increased.

In my opinion regarding 2.5, the Lvl 21 survivors and gear didn't make the game better but rather just made it longer. Longer to farm more gear. Longer to farm XP and supplies for upgrades.

I could have looked past that of it wasn't for the challenge starting point issue that is clearly an issue.

My Lvl 21 survivors and gear should allow me to progress better than I did with Lvl 20. So far the only incentive for higher gear and survivors is outposts. I've managed to turn my 1 minute 30 second raid into a 1 minute and 20 second raid since my Lvl 21's are now facing Lvl 19 walkers.

Other than that it's screwed me on challenges and challenges are a big part of this game.

If I work for a company and they offer me a 10% raise but it's going to add 50% to my workload is it still considered a raise? Should I still be happy about it?

If I moved to a city where the cost of living in relation to where I live now is going to save me 20% but the income I'll earn in my new job is 50% less than what I'm making now is it still a wise decision?

If Donald Trump wants to build a wall but puts a 15% tariff on products imported from Mexico who is really paying for it?

This is economics 101

The moral of my comment here is just because you make a game longer doesn't mean you're making it better. Lvl 21 has increased the longevity of the game in respect to those that play it; but haven't necessarily made it better by adding Lvl 21. Longevity is important don't get me wrong. Is players always want new content. But when that new content puts us at a disadvantage to others whom don't utilize the new content then why are we penalized for using it?

DoTak

@JayZ
Your post and data analysis lived up to my expectations, thank you. Nice work, as always

Somehow it seemed fitting that right after I finished reading this, the very next thing I saw was my bowl deposit starting it's journey to the septic tank.

TransmuteJun

Thank you, JayZ, for this detailed and informative post! My gut feeling was to level up all of my gear before leveling survivors, and it seems as if that was the right call.

KaLi

@JayZ thanks for the nice and very informative post

Mark

well done @JayZ

zeeblack

@JayZ great article. The players have always been at a disadvantage. Now it's time NG reverses some of the nerfs it has done in the past

Gindy

@JayZ - you make my numbers heart smile

Well presented, footnotes, and I highly respect and always encourage the "complaining without proposing" because it doesn't happen enough (and we know what happens if we don't).

Thank you!

paintbeast

@JayZ My intuition (not to mention my playing experience since 2.5) knew this to be the case. Thanks for doing the leg work to prove it.

Governator

I wish I saw this thread before I upgraded my survivors. It is so counter-intuitive to not "upgrade" when the reality is you are doing a "downgrade" in playability.

The term Fair Play that NG throws around to justify their actions just rings hollow. The proof is in the numbers.

Mais88

Wow. So disheartening. I have zero desire to upgrade to 21 even when Im able to in a month or so. I absolutely knew the changes were implemented to only slow people down and not allow them to progress to higher levels. I just had to see the numbers. Working as intended. Just sad....

Juanlo

Thanks for putting all that info in such a clear way. I've upgraded just one of my survivors to 21, and it will stay that way for a while until NG fixes this mess.

Human3001

To sum this up. Most players want a linear progressing game. The devs probably intetended to increase the difficulty level by going a new way, which isn't liked by many players.

One remark to this great and with much work created thread is left for me. What os won by reaching the end game faster? End game is a nightmare for any game, because the motivation usally takes a huge bump.

JackBauer

Ok, it looks like I need to scrap my lvl21 survivors.
Oh ! How can I scrap Heroes ?

Conan1976

@JayZ

thanks so much for this. Lets hope NG uses this to re-balance so lvl 21 survivors gives us a slight advantage compared to lvl 20 survivors! Respect!

paintbeast

@Human3001 You kind of missed the point. It has nothing to do with getting to end game faster. This thread is about showing that it currently isn't worth the effort.

DLich

in terms of "end game" the only thing I don't have to worry about is using anything that requires supplies to upgrade. I still have months of farming xp and gear in various ways to advance my team.

The issue wouldn't be so bad if the rate at which our survivors gear upgraded similarly to the way the walkers strength and health upgraded. Since they don't it makes it more difficult in the sense that a lvl 20 survivor with lvl 23 gear might take 6 hits to kill a lvl 25 walker but a lvl 21 survivor with lvl 24 gear might take 8 hits to kill a lvl 26 walker and as we all know the difference of an extra hit or two (extra turn) can mean the difference between 3 stars and 1 star.

Add to that we lose out on early RSL stars (RSL 14; RSL 19.2; RSL 19.3) it's a combination of ridiculousness

Papacas

@JayZ awesome work man, congratulations and thank you. I did upgrade my survivors so it is too late for me. Even with L24 gear ully upgraded, i do now around 100 less starts per week. My pleasure from playing this game is fading away quick...

@Teeceezy i see your interventions in this forum and, while i generally do appreciate your stance on isssues, i see nothing in a thread like this. Does NG agree with the numbers, or do you have different ones? Other arguments? Anything to say, really?

WeekOne

Thanks for this @JayZ ... serious stuff here that needs to be addressed.

I am, of course, one of the players that upgraded her survivors too quickly.... Oh well

I love the game... love the challenge but seriously don't like the "feeling that I made a mistake by upgrading" and that is something NG has said they did not want their players to feel.

We should "never be penalized" for upgrading anything.

nadecir

Hmm, you would think NG would like players to spend to upgrade survivors and equipment, wouldn't you? This thread gives players cause to think twice before spending to upgrade their 20 level survivors with fully upgraded level 23 gear.

I seriously doubt that increasing a level 21 with level 24 gear by 2.5% really tilts the game balance in favor of the players that much. About 80% of NG revenue comes from in-app purchases. If enough players refuse to spend in-game, maybe NG will reconsider this change to the normal survivor progression.

Human3001

Seriously the way some players comment in this forum is sometimes pretty strange. I really learned to like the community here during my first four weeks, but it seems to me that some people think that NG would make any changes with the goal to make the game less enjoyable for the players.

They test new ways from time to time. Then listen to the reaction of the players and made adjustments. I read my way through this forum since I registered here and one thing became pretty clear right at the beginning. This is a game from a publisher who is in touch with his customers. They will take care of the bad balance that is caused through the latest changes as well as they took care of other failures in the past.

Don't get me wrong this discussion and many others are very constructive. It's only a small minority of comments that leaves me speachless sometimes. I'm 100% sure that they will fix this within a reasonable timetable.

Governator

Human3001 said:

I'm 100% sure that they will fix this within a reasonable timetable.

Soon.

DLich

@Human3001 alot of us hang out in the off topic threads because it sometimes gets "old" seeing the same old things being repeated over and over and over as is why The Redundancy Thread was created.

Over time players all "evolve". When I first started here in the forums almost a year ago I was very hopeful and happy to share my thoughts and strategies with others... then I started being a data monger which made me angry and confrontational on the forums to the "higher ups"... then I remembered this is just a game and started to chill out and have fun.

I've come to expect the negative posts just as members of the forum have come to expect me to insert my witty memes or youtube video links for a laugh whenever I can fit one in (that's what she said).

I do agree the devs want to make a good game. The game is good or else we wouldn't still be playing it. Personally I don't really care too much about stars because as I mentioned this is a game. I want my guild to strive but at the end of the week if we have 10K stars it's still a good week.

My star total weekly is usually around 650 and I start on RSL 15. So as a data analyzer i just look at the data regarding what I could do after compared to what I could do before. But if my team needs 25 more stars for the next reward I'll try my best.

Somehow I feel like i'm going off topic here (sorry about that). Come check out off topic... Feel free to start a tread there as I'm sure @capibara is looking to make 2-3 more that sound remotely close to what you post LOL.

tallinie

Totally agree with @JayZ . Wish I hadnt upgraded my training camp and survivors first. And now Im getting 100 less stars in each challenge until maybe after 6 months or so I get some decent lvl 24 weapons and armors, currently I have just the free flamethrower..

Edit: well not free but could get it with TG so no money spent anyways

capibara

Damn! I was sleeping!! Who said @capibara ?? @DLich ? What now? I will be awke the whole night?

To be in topic... Awesome @JayZ !!
Usually i don't care about nefing, new game rules, walkers health... I play for fun and when something is unexpected i use to have more fun.
Trying to push every challenge to the limit... Doing of my best with everything i have, painful and sorrow... if necessary with urine too...