[ANALYSIS] Walker, equipment, and survivor progression

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  • MabikiMabiki Member Posts: 1,732
    Pig said:

    Mabiki said:

    Is there any reason to upgrade from level 19 to 20?

    Of course. Going from 19 to 20 makes your survivors better at story missions, scavenging, outposts, and episode missions without making them worse at challenges. By contrast, going from 20 to 21 makes them better at other game modes, but worse at challenges.



    I dont't think that's been proven yet.

    Jay_Z's data makes it clear weapons and armor don't scale at the same rate from 20 to 21 as other upgrades, and as a result it appears players may not be able to progress as far. But until a sufficient number of players have a survivor stable and equipment at max level to compare to performance under similar conditions at level 20, it is supposition.

    Granted, there's some good data analysis behind that supposition, but until there's an apples for apples comparison, it remains a hypothesis rather than a tested theory.

    When it comes to "being worse at challenges," those complaints have been about a loss of stars due to having just 2 level 21 survivors and not enough good max level equipment to handle the RSL increase (something that happens at every increase in survivor level). No one has yet shown that a player with as many max level survivors and equipment at 21 as they had at 20 suffers in challenge stars due to the change in how equipment scales.

    Seems to me most players just assume this is a case of "another NG screwjob," but since the OP is data-driven, I will withhold judgment about whether upgrading is detrimental to challenge stars until there is data to show it is more than just the growing pains associated with every other increase in survivor level.



    docfinzenburgGuapoCherokee_RoseOneLessTitan
  • PigPig Member Posts: 1,870
    edited April 2017
    I might add that we have good reason to suspect all things will be equal. There won't be a surprise factor which makes up for the relative disadvantage in hit points and damage. That's because NG stated the change to scaling is intended to make things tougher for endgame players, to give us more a challenge to our game-playing skill.

    This would be a bizarre and untruthful thing for them to say if in fact there were some undisclosed mechanism in the game that was going to give level 21 survivors a level playing field relative level 20s. So my decision not to upgrade to 21 is doubly reasonable. It's consistent with all data provided so far, and it's consistent with the rationale given for that data by NG.

    To say that we simply don't know yet until more challenges are run and stars collected is to assume, without any basis, that NG went out of their way to justify a level 21 disadvantage that they knew isn't actually going to be there. It's possible, but it's hardly reasonable in our present state of knowledge.
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  • PigPig Member Posts: 1,870
    I have a first comment awaiting moderation due to too many edits (apparently). Until that comes through, the second post above might not make as much sense.
    Bad Pig
    Bad to the bone!
    The Notorious P.I.G.
    "I'm stuck in forum prison, and time keeps draggin' on"
    "I’ve never said I’m a perfect pig, nor pretended to be someone that I’m not."
  • gcheong85gcheong85 Member Posts: 149
    Beware guys......a nerf on the level 20 gears(without upgrade) is incoming with all these negative stats for level 21 gears. NG will put 'a balance fix' to the game. Yay!!!
    JayZ
  • GuapoGuapo Member Posts: 990
    @Mabiki NG flat out told us that even though the walker difficulty for challenges went up the same, that the gear and stats for level 21 did not go up as it had previously. The stats here prove that also. So unless you think ng is lying, and the stats are made up, this is all proven fact. Yes, some complain because they don't like things they perceive, but this is the definition of proven.
    In a way, all of us has an El Guapo to face. For some, shyness might be their El Guapo. For others, a lack of education might be their El Guapo. For us, El Guapo is a big, dangerous man who wants to kill us.
  • GuapoGuapo Member Posts: 990
    Can you copy and paste?
    In a way, all of us has an El Guapo to face. For some, shyness might be their El Guapo. For others, a lack of education might be their El Guapo. For us, El Guapo is a big, dangerous man who wants to kill us.
  • Bill_ZRTBill_ZRT Member Posts: 1,421
    Pig said:

    I wonder what it takes to get that comment posted. Not only did it have the Greatest Point Ever Made in an internet argument, but it also had the location of Hoffa's body, my grandmother's secret pumpkin soup recipe, some groundbreaking research into cold fusion, a lost book of the Bible, eight tips for increasing your natural testosterone, and a clever limerick.

    I hope for all your sakes it gets through and posted. I'm sure as hell not typing it out again.

    PM @Teeceezy or a mod and they'll be able to fast track this for you. This has happened to me a few times... :wink:

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    ggbats
  • Conan1976Conan1976 Member Posts: 758
    @Shteevie

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  • MabikiMabiki Member Posts: 1,732
    @Conan1976
    I'll have to get to 20 before I can get to 21

    @Guapo
    If you re-read my post, you'll see I didn't question the data, all I said is the conclusion it means fewer stars hasn't been shown. I didn't even say the conclusion was incorrect, just that it is a leap to presume that's the result unless you know someone with all level 21 survivors and fully upraded gear who can attest to it.
  • GuapoGuapo Member Posts: 990
    I read it correct, I saw you accepted the data. You questioned whether @Pig 's statement that going from level 20 to level 21 makes survivors worse at challenges, unlike every other level upgrade, was proven. The data here is the proof (along with ng flat out telling us) that pig is correct.
    In a way, all of us has an El Guapo to face. For some, shyness might be their El Guapo. For others, a lack of education might be their El Guapo. For us, El Guapo is a big, dangerous man who wants to kill us.
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,646
    edited April 2017
    Mabiki said:


    If you re-read my post, you'll see I didn't question the data, all I said is the conclusion it means fewer stars hasn't been shown. I didn't even say the conclusion was incorrect, just that it is a leap to presume that's the result unless you know someone with all level 21 survivors and fully upraded gear who can attest to it.

    I agree with most of your comment. That's why I've refrained from making any absolute statements like "this will for sure 100% guarantee that you get 106 less stars if you upgrade to level 21" which I've seen (to varying degrees) in other threads on the forum.

    I posted somewhere else that absolute statements of "I am getting X fewer stars this week" are somewhat misleading because (A) we haven't played Challenge 2.0 enough to have good benchmarks for each challenge map because different maps have different levels of difficulty, (B) each weekly character bonus event will affect different people in different ways and will skew results from week-to-week, (C) comparing between players doesn't account for differences in survivors/gear/time/money/skill level, and (D) as you suggested, very few people have fully upgraded level 21 survivors sporting level 24 gear.

    That being said, the numbers do suggest that, all else equal, fully upgraded level 21 players should have a harder time getting as far as they previously did (relative to their starting point). Based on the data, I think this is a perfectly defensible statement.

    I don't think we are in disagreement, but I wanted to re-elaborate and clarify my own position on survivor progression. My (real) job requires me to do a lot of number-crunching in legal settings and I see statistics get misrepresented way too frequently in courtrooms. That's why I try to be fair to the data and careful in my presentation and wording when I present my own analyses.
    MabikiJadenPigOneLessTitan
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541

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  • GuapoGuapo Member Posts: 990
    @DLich As bad as that is, it is common across all levels. Everytime you upgrade (after the low ones) you start later and the 3 rnd challenges start later. At least that is fair to all levels. Reducing the amount of increase for stats for level 21 only is what really blows me away.
    In a way, all of us has an El Guapo to face. For some, shyness might be their El Guapo. For others, a lack of education might be their El Guapo. For us, El Guapo is a big, dangerous man who wants to kill us.
    JayZpaintbeastDoTakCarolsCookies
  • MabikiMabiki Member Posts: 1,732
    Thanks @JayZ. I appreciate your analysis and your nuanced argument, and I think we agree for the most part.

    Part of my reaction in the post above is probably due to my frustration with constant negativity on the forums that seems to assume NG's goal is always to piss people off and 'ruin' the game. I don't like everything they do, but like yourself, I prefer to stay away from absolutes.
    JayZDLichDoTakCherokee_Rose
  • carefreecarefree Member Posts: 203
    I wish I never upgraded to 21 survivors if I could go back I would. It's totally ruined the game.
    JackBauer
  • FeloniousSpunkFeloniousSpunk Member Posts: 76
    Just finishing my first challenge starting at 15. My progress was the same as usual, 3* through 23 and a swift drop off at 24 and 25, could barely 1 star 25. I am not doing any better on later rounds and I am losing 106 stars in early rounds, punished for upgrading. Thanks for ruining my favorite game for me ng.

    Through all the constant complaining of other players about nerfs and maxed supplies, I was always like "geez you guys complain about everything" but this right here is my breaking point. I'm on a serious spending boycott on this game, and I invite anyone affected by this and angry to do the same. They won't fix it unless it affects their bottom line.
    JackBauerGuapoSebiGrimGael
  • falowynfalowyn Member Posts: 75
    Let's say that NG resolves this situation and the rate of increase for well equipped Survivors goes back from 15.0% to 17.5%:

    Players will still experience a reduction of challenge star earning potential during transitional time while players acquire and upgrade new gear. That is a process that can take weeks or months, during which time the player's Challenge earning potential will be 'weaker' than before leveling up.

    This is counter-intuitive to the expected player experience. Gaining levels should *never* decrease Challenge earning potential. The star earning potential for completing each stage needs to be adjusted by the NG design team to reflect this natural assumption. Otherwise players will continue to be unhappy with any adjustments they may make.



    JadenJapes87ggbatsSebi
  • GuapoGuapo Member Posts: 990
    The difference being that it has been that way since before the update for all levels. People worked just fine with it before the 21 Nerf. Simple solution.
    In a way, all of us has an El Guapo to face. For some, shyness might be their El Guapo. For others, a lack of education might be their El Guapo. For us, El Guapo is a big, dangerous man who wants to kill us.
    JadenPigggbats
  • PigPig Member Posts: 1,870
    Yeah most of us know how to take account of this. Either you strategically plan your upgrades, improving a set of gear first and then upgrading survivors, or else you eat it temporarily when you upgrade your survivors and wait for gear to catch up.

    The problem now is that neither of those options results in what it should: sooner or later being advantaged (or at least not disadvantaged) by the upgrade to 21 in a major (if not the main) game mode, which is challenges.
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  • DonCoquiDonCoqui Member Posts: 584
    @Teeceezy @Shteevie Crickets...
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  • xbassmanxbassman Member Posts: 33
    carefree said:

    I wish I never upgraded to 21 survivors if I could go back I would. It's totally ruined the game.

    This is the most discussed topic in my guild.
    I'm surprised no one from NG has commented here so far.

    C'mon NG! Address the elephant in the room!
  • TeeceezyTeeceezy Staff Posts: 3,577
    Hey guys, thanks for all the feedback regarding this topic. A few thoughts:

    - The game is designed to and will get harder as the levels increase.
    - Meanwhile, we do want the upgrading of your buildings, survivors and equipment to be something to look forward to and feel rewarding when done.
    - We are looking at this issue both data- and feedback-wise and then, based on the results hope we can implement improvements in 2.6.
    BttlOpenersbfDivaWallStreet
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