[ANALYSIS] Hero Tokens is Broke

WarlordWarlord Member Posts: 165
(tl;dr NG didn't do the math to realize how broken this is)

@JayZ inspired me to post this with his on how broke level 21 is for survivors and equipment. This one won't be as long, but hopefully just as insightful even though it may be considered depressing.

I have accumulated data on phone calls over a period of time as I was curious to see what the data was. This is what I found out:

I did 80 15 phone calls and got this as the result: 2.5% chance at least one legendary, 42.5% at least one epic, and 55% at all rare. A hero popped up 28.4% of the time. Taking the highest tokens possible resulted in 78.4 per call or 5.23 per phone used.

I then did 40 1 phone calls and got 212 tokens for an average of 5.3 per phone used.

This leads me to the assumption that irregardless of which phone call type you use, over time you will average roughly 5.3 tokens per phone.

Now, let's get to the hero token issue as the 15 call data provides us a good foundation for that. At 28.4%, assuming that all heroes are weighted evenly, you have a 1.42% chance of getting a particular hero token.

So, how long would it take me to unlock Carl using 15 phone calls? Well, it would take 7 hits to get enough tokens at 78.4 per call to get the 500. To get those hits at a 1.42% chance would take 493 15 phone calls or a grand total of 7395 phones. If you average 20 a day between the walkers at the wall, end of mission drops, challenge rewards, and the season 7 missions; it will take 370 days to accumulate enough phones to have the probability to unlock Carl. The only upside with this is that you should also have roughly 500 hero tokens for the other 19 heroes too over that time span too.

This gets into the next part: you are looking at a year to unlock Carl or Michonne and then another year for them to get all four skills maxed so you can wait roughly another 9 months to make them legendary.

I don't want to even think about a pink star or how much worse it will get if we get more heroes for season 8.

The other way to get hero tokens is through Trade Goods buying 4 at a time. Now that we have 20 heroes, you should only see a hero once per week out of 21 possible trade shop stockings. To unlock Carl through trade goods would take (500/4) gives you 125 weeks or just under 2 and half years. (I do have to give NG props for making it 7 hours on the restock instead of 8 which is what most games do as 7 hours allows us to hit the shop 3 times a day a lot easier).

Unless you spend lots of money on phones, the free to play players need to be patient unless NG changes how they are doing this.

Three ideas on how to start addressing this:
1) Hero class tokens instead of individual tokens (hero assault, hero warrior, etc.).
2) Hero tokens only in the token crates in the weekly challenge.
3) Hero tokens in the token crates = (Current challenge level * (.8 + ((random number from 1 to 100)/100))) so if you open the token crate when your current challenge level is 16, you would get anywhere from 13 to 29 tokens. If you open it when your current challenge level is 26, you would get from 21 to 47 tokens.

Issues: No I did not analyze the 10 drop calls as I refuse to do them as I know no one that has had any decent results doing it. Yes, the math is kind of crude, but I think it works out but someone with a degree in statistics could probably clean it up some. Sample sizes aren't ideal, but I think they work. This also doesn't take into the account the hero tokens gained through the season 7 missions or for through the chapter missions. Chapter only applies to Daryl and the season 7 aren't a big factor except if you exclude the times to unlock heroes such as Neegan and Ezekial.

@Teeceezy Interesting that NG doesn't want us to hoard phones but the combination of the dilution of the hero tokens and the 14 day hero event basically forces us to hoard phones specifically for that event so you can try to get a decent amount of tokens for a specific hero.
TheLostOnesDLichTroublemakerShut_UpAnarchiJayZGindy8N8WallStreetJadenwrinkled_bagKillersZChispggbatsFlintstoneVudnik

Comments

  • TheLostOnesTheLostOnes Member Posts: 3,032
    Nice math, thanks.

    You may already know this, and it doesn't really change you point, but some heroes have a much lower drop likelihood than others. In the hard camp upu have Michone, Carl and Rick while Maggie and Glenn are in the easy group.
    I'm lost.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    Warlord said:

    A hero popped up 28.4% of the time.

    Well 28.4% is too high; expect it to be reduced..



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  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,468
    edited April 2017
    This is great. Thanks for sharing it.

    I hope NG does take a serious look at it, because token economy is one of the main issues with the game at the moment.

    I did 18 Abraham calls and got 134 tokens. That's less than 1 token per radio.
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    Warlord said:


    This gets into the next part: you are looking at a year to unlock Carl or Michonne and then another year for them to get all four skills maxed so you can wait roughly another 9 months to make them legendary.

    Whenever I think I have a chance of getting Carl tokens this song plays in my head...



    La Jiggy Jar Jar Doo.... Dur Dur Dur Dee Dur

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  • jeffstasykjeffstasyk Member Posts: 162
    rfg1982 said:

    This is great. Thanks for sharing it.

    I hope NG does take a serious look at it, because token economy is one of the main issues with the game at the moment.

    I did 18 Abraham calls and got 134 tokens. That's less than 1 token per radio.

    well yea less than 1 abe token per radio...but you also got all those other tokens on the non-abe calls....

    that is like saying i do the 15 calls looking just for assault and do 10 calls and only get 96 assault tokens so i spent 150 to get 96 which is horrible...but you cant just not count all the other tokens you received...
  • Shut_UpShut_Up Member Posts: 2,295
    It's absolutely dumbfounding that they will not acknowledge that hero token dilution is real and needs fixing. It doesn't take a genius to listen to your customers and do something about it.

    Instead they just go blah blah blah wer're not changing it.
    InvaderCaptainslayerant
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    edited April 2017

    rfg1982 said:

    This is great. Thanks for sharing it.

    I hope NG does take a serious look at it, because token economy is one of the main issues with the game at the moment.

    I did 18 Abraham calls and got 134 tokens. That's less than 1 token per radio.

    well yea less than 1 abe token per radio...but you also got all those other tokens on the non-abe calls....

    that is like saying i do the 15 calls looking just for assault and do 10 calls and only get 96 assault tokens so i spent 150 to get 96 which is horrible...but you cant just not count all the other tokens you received...
    18 calls is 180 radio's. Since it's stated 134 tokens I'm going to assume you received 2 of those calls being 32 tokens (rare quality) to give 64; and 7 others being 10 radios. So 9 of the 18 contained an abraham.

    The other 9 contained a minimum of uncommon (8 tokens) totalling 72 minimum tokens.

    Since we know 134 tokens were received of abe and the only quantities that can be received using the special call are 10,32,128,256 then at minimum you received... 206 tokens.

    206 / 180 is 1.14 tokens per radio "minimum" Still not much better.

    I'm not saying every other of those 9 calls resulted in 2 uncommon but I'm willing to bet money that most of them were.

    Even if we assume since they received 2 abraham 32 tokens and we use the same formula to sub in 2 rare pulls in the 9 remaining we're looking at 120 mixed survivor tokens; plus 134 abraham tokens = 1.41 tokens per radio.

    Still pretty crappy return on investment considering at 15 calls you're guaranteed a minimum of 32 tokens; 2.13 tokens per radio.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    Moral of the story; you get an "increased" chance of getting less tokens than normal for the survivor you want (abraham on abraham day; glenn on glenn day; maggie on maggie day; etc)

    That's my take on it anyway.

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  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,468

    rfg1982 said:

    This is great. Thanks for sharing it.

    I hope NG does take a serious look at it, because token economy is one of the main issues with the game at the moment.

    I did 18 Abraham calls and got 134 tokens. That's less than 1 token per radio.

    well yea less than 1 abe token per radio...but you also got all those other tokens on the non-abe calls....

    that is like saying i do the 15 calls looking just for assault and do 10 calls and only get 96 assault tokens so i spent 150 to get 96 which is horrible...but you cant just not count all the other tokens you received...
    Well said, but that is the main problem with Hero calls: all non Hero tokens are pure crap. You rarely get a rare or epic from discarded calls.

    And 10 radios for 10 Hero tokens is not a good deal when you get at least 32 from 15 radios (when a Hero shows up).

  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,468
    DLich said:

    rfg1982 said:

    This is great. Thanks for sharing it.

    I hope NG does take a serious look at it, because token economy is one of the main issues with the game at the moment.

    I did 18 Abraham calls and got 134 tokens. That's less than 1 token per radio.

    well yea less than 1 abe token per radio...but you also got all those other tokens on the non-abe calls....

    that is like saying i do the 15 calls looking just for assault and do 10 calls and only get 96 assault tokens so i spent 150 to get 96 which is horrible...but you cant just not count all the other tokens you received...
    18 calls is 180 radio's. Since it's stated 134 tokens I'm going to assume you received 2 of those calls being 32 tokens (rare quality) to give 64; and 7 others being 10 radios. So 9 of the 18 contained an abraham.

    The other 9 contained a minimum of uncommon (8 tokens) totalling 72 minimum tokens.

    Since we know 134 tokens were received of abe and the only quantities that can be received using the special call are 10,32,128,256 then at minimum you received... 206 tokens.

    206 / 180 is 1.14 tokens per radio "minimum" Still not much better.

    I'm not saying every other of those 9 calls resulted in 2 uncommon but I'm willing to bet money that most of them were.

    Even if we assume since they received 2 abraham 32 tokens and we use the same formula to sub in 2 rare pulls in the 9 remaining we're looking at 120 mixed survivor tokens; plus 134 abraham tokens = 1.41 tokens per radio.

    Still pretty crappy return on investment considering at 15 calls you're guaranteed a minimum of 32 tokens; 2.13 tokens per radio.
    I got 1x rare + 1x epic and all the rest uncommons.

    Hero Calls are terrible. Sadly NG won't do anything about it. It's our only chance to get specific Heroes.
    KillersZ
  • ChispChisp Member Posts: 54
    @Warlord, your suggestion 1 for a hero token for each class is what I suggested in another thread, it could fix the hero token now and in the future even if new heroes are added.

    Nice post, very informative on the math ratio
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