NextGames publicly traded stock seem to correlate how players enjoy new game modes & long term

So I've been doing some interesting looking into the stock price of nextgames public stock trading on Nasdaq (NXTGMS).

And I've seen a bit of a correlation in their stock lying flat with almost no gain or loss for near 6 months until pretty much right before the badge and the distance updates were upgraded into the game where you can see a huge bubble that formed in the stock. Obviously everyone who trades in Nasdaq gaming stocks or has knowledge in stocks in general bet big on the success of the distance and the badge system, which imo relies greatly on the happiness of players and how much they spend on the game since besides players buying packages/using the badge system(removing a badge cost), the new component tab purchases, and besides those NML only other money making comes from the advertising used to get 3 more lock boxes unlocked after completing most types of game modes.

The reason I bring this up is because I think investors are taking note that the most recent update to the game which caused this bubble, which seems to now be bursting, has to do with how the how new additions have been received by fans and investors that pay attention to their happiness knowing how this games "value added" works when new updates with new game modes are offered as compared to when previous game modes are retooled to be better

As you can see before the release of (match the timing of the recent new game modes to the stock jump) NXTGMS was already on a bit of a down slide, which I also believe why these upgrades were so centered on the spending of money to compete in any new game modes, after all this company is a publicly traded stock and this reminder is very important: NextGames responsibility (legally) is towards making money for its shareholders, not making game players happy or to enjoy the game, even though I believe them to be related hand in glove.

Although as the graph above shows and with the lack of announcements from the nextgames website having to do with NML since the launch of the most recent game mode causing the investment bubble it seems to now be receding back to normal, showing this bubble to possibly just be the head on top of the shoulders of it's average trading price of 8.5 over the past 6 months...which isn't that great seeing as IPO price of NXTGMS stock was 7.9 and it is now at 12.9 (but seems to be returning to its average of 8.5 again once the distance/badge system bubble bursts, maybe it won't burst that bad because of the continuing pay to play spending needed to use these new upgrades ).

Maybe this is the reasoning for me hearing that next games wants to use this game as its money maker to try to make more well made licensed games (at least in the base release) so they can provide their legal responsibility of growth to their shareholders.



Besides that I find it interesting when it comes to the correlation of Next Games stocks and how this game is updated and gamer happiness seems to correlate with each other, as well as the drop of stock price since the distance/badge release got the stock back to, and quite a bit above the original IPO release cost for a very small amount of time, and now seems to be dropping again back to where the stock averaged at its lowest.

Who knows what the company will do when it comes to decisions made in NML by next games but I guess the most important takeaway from this post would be to remind players that next games (NXTGMS) is a publicly traded stock, whose responsibility by law is to make money for its shareholders, not to continuously provide fun gaming. Obviously one would think the interest of making one happen would make good sense for the other but only one is expected to be done by law, so if anything expect even more pay to play/win type updates in the future to try to keep the price of the stock to at least match the IPO price (Initial Public Offering [stock price]) or higher of course, as opposed to a company that has just lost money on the market since becoming publicly traded(or only made very moderate gains). It's also interesting to compare this to the fun of other TWD games offered by companies that aren't publicly traded on Nasdaq
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Comments

  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,157
    Thta is really sad from our perspective.

    NML feels like an interactive Jackpot, where you put money to take chances, but do it manually, “playing”.

    Strategy is less and less and everything needs money. After 2.7 the cost for playing has skyrocketed.
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  • afroponixafroponix Member Posts: 503
    And if anyone knows anything about stock fact sheets here's some interesting info on NXTGMS showing the company wasn't even profitable until they received the license for TWD:NML

    Guts & Glory, not always in that order.
  • MattOfEarthMattOfEarth Member Posts: 618
    Seems like an appropriate time to inquire about the future of this game beyond the life of the AMC TV series. As in, is there one? Even great TV shows like Breaking Bad reach their limit of marketability, and as soon as that starts to stop growing, bye-bye TV show.

    I hope the game stays forever, I have grown quite fond of it.
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  • clausLeneclausLene Member Posts: 58
    Maybe the annousment of "The Walking Dead: Our World" have something to do with the raising stock.
    TJS
  • Shut_UpShut_Up Member Posts: 2,295
    edited September 2017
    I think some of your analysis and conclusions are a little off. First of all the whole thing about not being profitable until NG received the license for TWD isn't that surprising or even accurate as NG had just come into existence a few months before and only had compass point west. New companies aren't always profitable out of the gate whether it's because they have to include start up cost or they just have slow sales at first or a combo of the two. Amazon want profitable for its first 15 years and that statement really doesn't say much about how successful or unsuccessful Amazon is.

    Also, I don't think the jump in stock price starting a month ago can be directly attributed to the intro of badges. Not only did the price of the stock jump but the volume of stock traded jump as well. It would be a little unusual for a stock to react instantly to increases web traffic when it's a company the size of Next Games. Sure it's normal for a company to react positively with current news but, and no offense Next Game people, that's with a company with some size and influence and spotlight. It's not like Next Games is a household name like Apple and announcing the iPhone 8 and X. More likely there was other news announced at the end of August that is affecting stock price and volume. Also the stock is about 6 months old and when a company goes public a lot goes on stockwise during the first year. For instance at the 6 month mark they lift restrictions on insider selling or there is a secondary offering and trading restrictions are also lifted.

    I do agree that a lot of what we see in the game is because NG needs to boost stock price.
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  • afroponixafroponix Member Posts: 503
    clausLene said:

    Maybe the annousment of "The Walking Dead: Our World" have something to do with the raising stock.

    Well if you look at the data of the stock there are no date points having to do with "our world" mapped out with the dates of the stock price to increase like it did with the exact date release of the last patch mostly centered on a money making centered release, reminder the venture has always been to make money for stockholders, not a long term enjoyable game.
    Shut_Up said:




    Also, I don't think the jump in stock price starting a month ago can be directly attributed to the intro of badges. Not only did the price of the stock jump but the volume of stock traded jump as well. It would be a little unusual for a stock to react instantly to increases web traffic when it's a company the size of Next Games. Sure it's normal for a company to react positively with current news but, and no offense Next Game people, that's with a company with some size and influence and spotlight. It's not like Next Games is a household name like Apple and announcing the iPhone 8 and X. More likely there was other news announced at the end of August that is affecting stock price and volume. Also the stock is about 6 months old and when a company goes public a lot goes on stockwise during the first year. For instance at the 6 month mark they lift restrictions on insider selling or there is a secondary offering and trading restrictions are also lifted.



    I do agree that a lot of what we see in the game is because NG needs to boost stock price.


    And yes NXTGMS wasn't profitable before this game, in fact if you read the stock fact sheet they weren't even profitable until this year, compass point west wasn't even a blip on this companies balance sheet compared to LICENCED games having to do with previous and popular content like that of the walking dead


    I definitely don't think this has to do with a fact of correlation without causation, I mean the new update was hyped appropriately as well as the interview with comicon people at the NXTGMS booth talking about this update and how they plan on using it for the new update to create cash flow for future licensed game ventures, and this was before "our world" was announced. Plus if you look at the trading chart the stock jumps within days of the release of the new update, personally I wouldn't call it coincidental, especially with the drop in price coming now after the original excitement wears off (not what I think NXTGMS was expecting it, at least not so soon.
    Shut_Up said:

    Also, I don't think the jump in stock price starting a month ago can be directly attributed to the intro of badges. Not only did the price of the stock jump but the volume of stock traded jump as well. It would be a little unusual for a stock to react instantly to increases web traffic when it's a company the size of Next Games.



    I do agree that a lot of what we see in the game is because NG needs to boost stock price.

    Somewhat confused about how the increase in web traffic would have to do with boosting a stock price or the volume of trades, I'm not that surprised with the increase in trades with NXTGMS hyping the new upgrade as much as they did and with the post on its corporate website public announcements that most of its new found profitability would be used for new licensed ventures (before the announcement of our world).

    All in all I like your post because it's creating discussion on an oft ignored point when it comes to this company, it being a traded stock, licensed games, rights of stockholders et al.

    Apologies for the screwiness of using the quote system in this post, couldn't get it to work correctly.
    Guts & Glory, not always in that order.
  • afroponixafroponix Member Posts: 503
    On a side note I work as a counselor at an addiction center, there is a group offered weekly about "video games and addiction" where there is talk on positive games for addicts and games not positive I.e. Pay for play/win/progress games. At the center where I work in CT this game has been put on the black list meaning it's now just considered a slot machine type game where you pretty much can't play expanded content without spending money for that little addictive burst of dopamine. Not surprisingly a lot of phone games are on that list.

    Personally I think the phone game system of pay to win has set the video game era into dark days.

    Of course this is a completely different subject but I am thoroughly enjoying the responses about the stock bump talk
    Guts & Glory, not always in that order.
    tpips42Troublemaker
  • clausLeneclausLene Member Posts: 58
    @afroponix
    I am not an expert here, but a lot of the preview of "The Walking Dead: Our World" are from around 1. sep, and the big jump in stocks are (as i see it) around that date. And yes 2.7 is the same date, but if i have the money to bye shares, i would bye on the feeling of a upcomming new (the first since Pokemon Go) game, than the feeling on a update on a old game.
    afroponix
  • I_Am_PsychoI_Am_Psycho Member Posts: 1,431
    edited September 2017
    Time to look for nml specific breakdown of similar stats :)

    Then this night get moved back out of off-topic.
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  • TJSTJS Member Posts: 4,501
    Nice @afroponix
    I think I'll look into this further and consider buying NG stock
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  • afroponixafroponix Member Posts: 503
    Lol....@teeceezy, got that money for that flunked up piercing michonne katana sword back for me yet? I agree, a bit off topic at points but definitely is a more mature and most of the time on par topic to discuss on "next games"/"General NML" message board area, I'd say a post on the company that owns the rights to twd:NML to not be considered off topic at least seeing as it is general NML discussion. "General" can be such a generalized word.

    I'm all for capitalism, but best of luck to next games and "our world", should I expect it by 2020 after the Pokémon go issues? Don't worry, I don't expect a realistic answer to any of those questions.

    I know the situation is being monitored.
    Guts & Glory, not always in that order.
    Troublemaker
  • afroponixafroponix Member Posts: 503
    TJS said:

    Nice @afroponix

    I think I'll look into this further and consider buying NG stock

    Depending on the future it may make more sense to invest in the stock than to invest in the game....wish I was joking.
    Guts & Glory, not always in that order.
    tpips42TJS
  • TeeceezyTeeceezy Staff Posts: 3,576
    afroponix said:

    Lol....@teeceezy, got that money for that flunked up piercing michonne katana sword back for me yet? I agree, a bit off topic at points but definitely is a more mature and most of the time on par topic to discuss on "next games"/"General NML" message board area, I'd say a post on the company that owns the rights to twd:NML to not be considered off topic at least seeing as it is general NML discussion. "General" can be such a generalized word.

    I'm all for capitalism, but best of luck to next games and "our world", should I expect it by 2020 after the Pokémon go issues? Don't worry, I don't expect a realistic answer to any of those questions.

    I know the situation is being monitored.

    The reason I moved it is that Next Games as a company is not "General No Man's Land Discussion". :) These kinds of threads along with threads relating to Our World, Compass Point West etc have always been moved here and will be in the future.
    MadPuppyTroublemaker
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