[ANALYSIS] 15 radio hero call drop rates

JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
We know that people really liked the new special hero call that was offered last week, but is this supported by data? This post analyzes 100 regular radio calls and 100 hero radio calls.

Here is a quick summary of my findings. More details at the end of the post.
1. You are more than twice as likely to receive hero tokens during the special hero call.
2. During the special hero call, you have ~80% chance of receiving the hero of the day if you get a hero. There are no guarantees for what hero you get on a regular call.
3. The odds of getting three green goblins were lower for hero calls (24% compared to 35% for regular calls).
4. The distribution of rare, epic, or legendary survivors (i.e., the likelihood of getting a rare, epic, or legendary survivor or hero) are the same between regular and hero calls.

Basically, the hero calls (1) are more likely to give you hero tokens for the hero you want, (2) are less likely to give you three green goblins, and (3) do not nerf or do anything bad to the distribution of rare, epic, and legendary survivors. And this doesn't even take into account the fact that you get double tokens for the hero of the day!

Thanks to @Teeceezy, @Shteevie, @Fearofabotplanet, and the rest of the NG team for a great radio event. We all have our fingers crossed that this event gets run again for a different set of heroes. My data and I will be around to make sure the odds aren't nerfed or tweaked in any way :wink:

In case you all were wondering how I fared during this event, I received an average of 100+ tokens per 15 radio call.



--------------------

As promised above, here are more detailed results for each of my four findings.

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Finding #1: You are more than twice as likely to receive hero tokens during the special hero call.



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Finding #2: During the special hero call, you have ~80% chance of receiving the hero of the day. There are no guarantees for what hero you get on a regular call.

*** EDIT: I just realized that the first table is mis-labeled. You have an 81% chance to get the HERO OF THE DAY, and a 19% chance to get another hero.





Note: these calls were made before the introduction of Aaron, Dwight, Eugene, Ezekiel, Gabriel, Governor, Jerry, Merle, Merle, and Sasha. Tokens in hero calls are even more diluted now.

---

Finding #3: The odds of getting three green goblins were lower for hero calls (24% compared to 35% for regular calls).




--

Finding #4: The distribution of rare, epic, or legendary survivors are the same between regular and hero calls.


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Comments

  • OvergrowdaworldOvergrowdaworld Member Posts: 422
    Thank you for the data. I joined 3 months ago and have put around $300 into this game. $200 into radio calls for this event alone. So 2/3rds of money spent. LOL
    I’m enjoying a legendary Rick at my outpost with 2 serious bruisers, Rick having a gun 3 lvls above himself. All due to this event.
    Unlocked Sasha, Dwight, Michonne, and Rick.
    Lvld up Maggie, Glenn, Ezekiel, and Gov. and many survivors in each class.
    Great event! Can’t wait for the next one! Just please give us a little time to recover from this spending spree. Need to stack some chips again so I can partake in the next event.
    Troublemaker
  • OvergrowdaworldOvergrowdaworld Member Posts: 422
    @rfg1982
    Rick wasn’t even half way to being unlocked. With the double tokens and a few 256 pulls, I unlocked Rick and was able to make him legendary and upgrade a few of his leg traits. I did very well in this event. Gov morning threw me through a loop at first, but paid off later on with the odds being what they were as @JayZ so kindly put up the stats for all to see.
    I think many of us were able to get some heros to even past the normal survivors.
    If I put all the phones I used for the week, and 3 different heros call sessions were put into 1 hero, Ide have a triple pink Hero. That’s badass!
    TroublemakerCzarnyJo
  • enigma12enigma12 Member Posts: 246
    I wish they kept that event forever but Ng wouldn’t give us something we actually want! They crave our tears!
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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526

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  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    rfg1982 said:

    Best event.

    I fear saying that will make NG to nerf it severely.

    Funny thing is: we still can’t boost our Heroes close to our regulars’ level. This offer should be permanent to make it worth dumping HARDLY found radios into hero calls.

    I still think the discounted 10 radio gold calls was a better event. Even with this event, it'll still be absurdly hard to get more than 1 pink star on a hero, so that makes me hopeful that NG will bring this back and won't nerf the event. Players like @overgrowdaworld might be helping fund a return of this event for the rest of us cheap bastards :wink:
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  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    Given the impending return of hero week, I wanted to bump this post so people can see the odds of receiving hero tokens, comparison to regular 15 radio calls, etc. based on my 100 calls during the last hero week.
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  • Conan1976Conan1976 Member Posts: 758
    Thanx @JayZ

    I already thought the % of leg's was lowered

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  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    edited December 2017
    Just as a reminder, you should have roughly a 20% chance of getting the hero of the day on a given roll (you can see this by multiplying the 27% chance in the table for finding 1 by the 81% chance for hero of the day in finding 2).

    You get 3 rolls per call, so that means there's a approximately a 50% chance that you should get the hero of the day on the gold call [1-(1-.20)^3].

    Good luck to everyone on Hero Week 2.0!
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  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,082
    edited December 2017
    @JayZ, my Sasha is about the same position now as where you started. I'm curious that you decided to bring her to Pink instead of holding the tokens for Abe. Do you value her more than Abe?

    btw love her rifle!
    JayZ
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    @Cronus Thanks for asking! Her, Abe ,and Jesus are my three most frequently used heroes, so I actually plan on using radios on all three of them. I used both her and Abe a lot during this past challenge, depending on the map.

    Due to my stingy bastardness, I've been saving radios for quite a while and had 3500 accumulated. I used 1500 during the first Hero Week and have accumulated 750 since then, so I started today with 2750 radios and currently have around 2250.

    I need 658 tokens to bump Abe up to one pink star and then I'll need 3500 more to get Abe up to two pink stars. I'm guessing that it'll take me close to 1200 radios to get Abe up to there.

    I need 1523 tokens to get Jesus up to one pink star, and I'm guessing that'll cost about 500 radios.

    So, as long as the drop rates don't change, I'm hoping I can still use a bunch of radios on these other two heroes and leave myself with about 500 radios by the end of this event!
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  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,082
    @JayZ, appreciate the reply. I have a bit over 600 to spend and I'm trying to decide to bring Sasha or Abe to pink or split it and get them each as high as I can. My standard survivors are so much higher than these heroes that only occasionally are they useful and I want to get them to a point where I can utilize their leader trait. Two challenges ago Sasha helped me get through the highest level Archives map but she was hugely outgunned by the Assaulters with her.
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    @Cronus Ah, that makes sense. I personally think it's better to focus on one hero because upgrading a few traits on each won't get you very far, but upgrading the leader trait and going to a pink star can make a meaningful difference. I do really like both of them, so I wish I could give you advice on which to upgrade. I think most people would say Sasha though.
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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 1,910
    > @JayZ said:
    > You get 3 rolls per call, so that means there's a approximately a 50% chance that you should get the hero of the day on the gold call ((1-.80)^3.
    >

    Ahum, think you mean 1-.8^3
    Lol.

    Very much appreciated @jayz.
    Thanks to you I know how many radios i need to get abraham to pink.
    David_H79
  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,082
    edited December 2017
    To build on what @JayZ posted here are my results:

    I made 28 calls and used 420 radios.I got Sasha in 17 out of 84 rolls i.e. 20% of the time. Of the 28 calls, Sasha showed up in 14 of them so 50% of the time (3 calls had two choices for Sasha tokens). I gained 1280 tokens, which is an average of 46 Sasha tokens per 15 radio call.

    My Michonne calls were much better where in 33 calls (495 radios) I got over 2,400 tokens. I was averaging about 73 Michonne tokens per call.

    I'd rate Michonne day a a banner day and Sasha day, well meh.
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    Wow, very nice on Michonne, but I'm glad you still got a healthy number of Sasha tokens @Cronus!

    @jimmorrison369 Thanks for the correction, it was right in my head (and when I calculated the 50% chance), but I had mistyped it. Good catch :wink:
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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 1,910
    > @JayZ said:
    > You get 3 rolls per call, so that means there's a approximately a 50% chance that you should get the hero of the day on the gold call [(1-.20)^3].
    >

    Lol, still wrong.
    1-(1-.20)^3

    Otherwise your chanches get smaller for each extra chance. :open_mouth:
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 1,910
    You want the outcome to come closer to 1 the bigger the power.
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167

    You want the outcome to come closer to 1 the bigger the power.

    Yep, you're right. Mondays are hard. Brain farts are aplenty. Thank you :)
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  • Orion_GuardianOrion_Guardian Member Posts: 7
    edited December 2017
    I think your tables above are not consistent with your text.

    You write that "3 green goblins" are 35 % on regular calls and 24% on hero calls but your table says 65% and 76%.
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    > @Orion_Guardian said:
    > I think your tables above are not consistent with your text.
    >
    > You write that "3 green gobnlins" are 35 % on regular calls and 24% on hero calls but your table says 65% and 76%.

    Thank you, good catch! I had flipped the row descriptions. The text is correct and the tables are incorrect. Will be fixed when I’m next on my computer.
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  • TJSTJS Member Posts: 4,501
    edited December 2017
    @JayZ
    Monday's really aren't your days. Next time I read one of your posts I'll have to check if it was written on a Monday. :D :D
    -
    TJS  -  Member of W-S
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  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    Well, Jesus day was absolutely brutal for me...

    My tokens per call were crap:
    - Jesus: 690 phones (46 calls) for 1763 Jesus tokens (33 tokens per call)
    - Sasha: 495 radios (33 calls) for 1920 Sasha tokens (58 tokens per call)

    My odds were also crap:
    - Jesus: 21 out of 138 rolls were Jesus (15%)
    - Sasha: 23 out of 99 rolls were Sasha (23%)

    Finally, my chance of getting more than 64 Jesus tokens was crap. I got 64 tokens in each of the first 20 Jesus rolls, and FINALLY got 256 in the last call.

    Let's hope I have better luck with Abe...

    Thank god this at least happened:


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  • Andy_bAndy_b Member Posts: 86
    i saw a dramatic decrease also from sasha to jesus calls roughly 60%. like you said..im praying for better luck on abe day
  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,201
    NG is gonna tweak Abraham's day value to squeeze every radio left in the game.
    ::
    Mavericks Guild Family
  • MonsutaMonsuta Member Posts: 1,168
    edited December 2017
    Abraham & Jesus
    https://twdnomansland.wordpress.com/heroes/





    1 pink level 23 shooter have 1482 base damage, level 26 legendary weapon have 2737 base damage, shooter have 15% marksman & weapon have 15% lethal

    (1482*(1+0.15))+(2737*(1+0.15)) = 4852 damage

    Abraham 1 pink level 5 leader trait is 14% damage & 9% health increase
    (1482*(1+0.15+0.14))+(2737*(1+0.15)) = 5059 damage

    Abraham 5 pink level 10 leader trait is 19% damage & 14% health increase
    (1482*(1+0.15+0.19))+(2737*(1+0.15)) = 5133 damage

    5059/4852 = 1.042662819455894
    That 14% actually just 4.2662819455894% increase of 1 pink level 23 shooter damage

    5133/4852 = 1.057914262159934
    That 19% actually just 5.7914262159934% increase of 1 pink level 23 shooter damage

    Anyone still think Abraham & Jesus are good increase to your survivor damage?
    There is NO higher rarity when we use all legendary to craft the badge, we are being punished for having a chance to get LOWER rarity.
    This is NOT WORKING AS INTENDED & it's UNFAIR.
    jimmorrison369
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,167
    Bump to remind people of what drop rates should be like (if they haven't changed).
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  • OneVoiceOneVoice Member Posts: 133
    @JayZ good thread this. nice work / stats.

    What's the word on the street. have the drop rates decreased or remained the same?

    Cheers in advance, if you or anyone else have been tracking the results!
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