Radio Drop Rates and what do we take away? (NEW: 15x double hero-token call)

PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
I might not be the only one who liked the massive info around drop rates in v2.10 ;)

Collecting that data is one thing, but what conclusions do we derive from it?

Together with @jimmorrison369 I wanted to look at the numbers and ask a few questions a typical player might ask:

- How are the various radio calls different? The age-old question: which call is 'better'
- Which radio call should I use when I have a certain goal to achieve.
Basically: which call gives me the most hero or survivor token in total?


When @DLich and I compared our respective data collections, we found we had both used the pic in the upper left corner and the provided data in-game below it. After the laugh we had about that, I kept the general color scheme the same as his, i.e. black background.
Hopefully that makes it easier for people looking at it.




UPDATE:


ADDED:


ADDED + UPDATED:


ADDED NEW 20x Special Hero Call:


ADDED NEW 25x Guaranteed Hero Call:


ADDED 15x Double Hero-Token Call:



UPDATED: TOTAL OVERVIEW



(Overview includes the results for the 40x call with results from @jimmorrison369 and @dylanarena, thx guys!)






OVERVIEW OF APPLIED PRIORITIES

The 5x call offers us two 'slots', where we need to select which one we like better. This requires us to define a priority i.e. 'which call result do I like better, Rare Survivor or 10 hero token for Sasha'? I defined a 'typical' priority in the above overview, yours might be different. Either way this won't change the results dramatically


I hope this helps to shine some light on the radio drop numbers.

Note:
We are determined to take these calculations further, but don't hold your breath. The calculations for the 40x call with rerolls are quite challenging. ;)

If anyone with statistics/probability background wants to help, pls let us know!


If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
contact us via email at [email protected]
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Comments

  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,468
    Didn't understand quite well your post @Putchuco

    Is it a statement or are you asking those questions?
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    You were a bit too anxious there ;)
    Update with pics done
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    I_Am_Psychoromeo
  • TroublemakerTroublemaker Member Posts: 1,468
    Ok. Mods can delete my posts then, pls. Thanks.
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    @Putchuco

    I am sure you could find a formula in excel to answer the probability odds of the 40 call event. Excel has a ton of built in statistical formulas. If I was more current on the subject I could find it. Maybe I will call @DLich today and attempt to remember this from my Masters program lol, but basically I did a case study where consumers were given 3 choices if they selected none then were given 3 different again. Would be similar approach
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @Drunken , unfortunately the math behind this is quite a bit more difficult than one excel function, too many variables and dependencies.
    I do hold a math degree, but statistics was not my prime field ;)

    If someone has a great idea on how to run the calculations, i’d be more than happy about it.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    There's 2 things that I didn't have the patience to work on. One of them was handled by @OneLessTitan and that's the probability of getting a legendary/epic/rare/uncommon/common badge using all the variety of types of components.

    Since there are 5 rarities on each type there are 5*5*5*5*5 possibilities. That's 3,125 possibilities but since order doesn't matter (at least there doesn't appear to be any matter in the order) there are actually less.

    Example... Epic Badge fragment / Rare Component / Rare Component / Epic Component / Epic Component is the same as Epic Badge fragment / Epic Component / Epic Component / Rare Component / Rare Component.

    I can't think of the number... Maybe someone can clear my mind and post all the possible inputs.

    It's probably 5^5 - 5!

    Oh and the second thing I have no patience to work on is what @Putchuco & @jimmorrison369 are working on. The amount of tokens expected based on multiple options given. It hurts my brain!!


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    jimmorrison369Putchuco
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    Drunken said:

    @Putchuco

    I am sure you could find a formula in excel to answer the probability odds of the 40 call event. Excel has a ton of built in statistical formulas. If I was more current on the subject I could find it. Maybe I will call @DLich today and attempt to remember this from my Masters program lol, but basically I did a case study where consumers were given 3 choices if they selected none then were given 3 different again. Would be similar approach

    Just look here. @Drunken

  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    edited February 2018
    Or even better,
    I'll just post this here then.

    40 radio call = 5.89 tokens per radio (When you NEVER pick 32, if you do pick 32 hero tokens to, it's 5.25 tokens per radio)
    1 radio call = 3.81 tokens per radio
    5 radio call = 5.01 tokens per radio
    15 radio call = 5.35 tokens per radio
    25 radio call = 3.21 tokens per radio
    10 radio call = 2.58 tokens per radio

    bladgierAlexFiliUK
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @DLich i am working on the badge crafting also, but wanted to keep that separate from the radio calls. Thread title and all ;)
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    @Putchuco

    No you misunderstood what I was saying. In Excel you can download a free expansion back that has more built in statistics formulas. I can see if I have it on laptop tonight and send a copy to @DLich

    I am a MBA grad, so I have general working knowledge in multiple areas. I don't excel in one specific area. My background is budget, so my working knowledge on things like this is limited to what I had to do for my program. If I have time I can play and figure out a lot of things. Normally DLich takes something I create and expands on it. For our guild we tag team things to make life better lol.
    DLichPutchuco
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    I don't like to let this known but I'm not a spreadsheet "wizard". I know pretty much (sum) only LOL. I can find averages etc. But up until last week I didn't know how to make 1 sheet read data from another one. Since I saw @Drunken code I expanded on it to do our guilds family's top 60 as well as a Intra Guild Battle (similar to how we do the guild games on facebook) but for our guild family only.

    image
    | OG | NOC | USA | UK | CA | CQR | UC | RAD | ZEN |
    Other Leaders | Kick_ass | Pic | abailey362 | GunnerGaz | JMo2127 |
    MAVERICK'S 1 Million Star Club | OG | USA | NOC
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    | My YouTube Videos | My 1st Interview | Best Analogy Award!! |

    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    Drunkenzivaolivia
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    I can teach you young one haha..
    DLich
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    edited February 2018
    I'll elaborate a bit about the 40 call.
    Let's say you don't ever lock a rare regular survivor. Everything else, you lock on sight.

    On your first roll you'll have a 4.78% You'll take all.
    There is 25.18% you'll lock 2
    There is 44.19% you'll lock 1
    And a 25.85% chance you'll lock none.

    If you only locked 2 on your first roll.
    There is a 36,3% chance you'll lock the last one on your second roll.

    If you only locked 1 on your first roll
    There is a 13.18% chance you'll lock the last 2 on your second roll
    There is a 46.25% chance you'll lock only 1
    There is a 40.58% chance you'll lock none on your second roll

    If you locked none on your first call.
    You can count the second roll as the first roll. (except you now have only 1 roll after that.)
    TJS
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @jimmorrison369 great ideas, let's discuss :)


    @Drunken I didn't want to come across as dismissive, I would LOVE your input, pointers and help on wrapping this all up for the higher level calls.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    edited February 2018
    Here's the resulting overview I am envisioning, thoughts?


    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    @Putchuco

    jim and I were talking in message about this. He has some data and insight already drawn up. I didn't take it as dismissive, I kind of left out the fact excel does a lot more than simple formula. (ex. =sum(b4:b12)

    I wasn't aware of that till my Stats course. If you have office then you can download certain expansions. Just giving two cents and not common knowledge :)
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Updated the 5x call sheet as we found a small error, and added the 10x hero call, and the new overview sheet.

    Pls let me know if you have any questions or ideas on how to make this better
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    edited February 2018
    @jimmorrison369 @OneLessTitan @Drunken or anyone else interested to chime in on the computations

    Do we think we can find 'the excel stat function' that covers this all?

    I wouldnt even know what name to look for.
    But I would describe the problem as follows:

    - x amount of 'dice', all dice are the same
    - y number of 'sides' per dice
    - z1...zy probability for each side of a dice to come out 'on top'
    - a1 ... ay are the numbers on each side of the dice (or number of token in our case)
    - b1 ... by is the 'ranking' of priorities between the sides of all dice, which one is more 'preferred', ie a 6 over a 5, a 5 over 4 etc (or in our case hero 256 token over hero 128 etc)

    What is the average outcome for given values x, yi, zi, bi for:
    - SUM of each a(i), and/or any combination of various a(j) values (ie all heroes, all survivor or overall token no matter where from)

    Does that make sense?
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Added results for 15x radio call, even though they might not be 100% exact.


    Preliminary result: 15x call is better than 5x and 1x calls, just as we all have suspected for a long time ;)
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Updated 15x radio call results, with the help of @jimmorrison369 who cracked the formula!
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    TJS
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    edited February 2018
    Added an overview of priorities I applied to all the results.

    In theory, we could make all these result sheets totally customizable, where everybody defines their own priorities. Furthermore, one could drill down on each and every hero, but the amount of formulas would be mindblowing. My take is that we need to live with the approximations in terms of heroes.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Small update to the 15x call, @jimmorrison369 has eagle eyes! ;)
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369
  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,281
    @Putchuco & @jimmorrison369 Really, well done on this!
    jimmorrison369TJSPutchuco
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Quick (albeit preliminary) update for the new 20x special hero call!

    I figured players would want to know as soon as possible
    ;)
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    In case this last addition is not clear enough:

    - if you were to be missing 1100 carol token for the next promotion, it will likely take you about 1000 radios to get there
    - if you were to be missing about 110 carol token, it would take you about 5 calls, ie 100 radios

    Spend your radios wisely :smile:
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    JackBauer
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,541
    Putchuco said:

    In case this last addition is not clear enough:

    - if you were to be missing 1100 carol token for the next promotion, it will likely take you about 1000 radios to get there
    - if you were to be missing about 110 carol token, it would take you about 5 calls, ie 100 radios

    Spend your radios wisely :smile:

    It just sucks that this call type ends exactly when the challenge begins... The challenge is where people most likely will attain radio's. I guess the 150ish I need will have to wait since it's unlikely I will get 100 radio's before this call type ends.

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  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Totally agree @DLich , but i have heard theough the grapevine that the carol call might possibly return at the end of the event...

    RUMORS!!!
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  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    I would be happy if I could get some feedback if the way we present the numbers if helpful to people.
    Is it too much, too little, too confusing, missing something. If so, what?

    Pls let us know!
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369DLich
  • TransmuteJunTransmuteJun Member Posts: 2,163
    edited February 2018
    Thank you very much for your hard work @Putchuco ! It is much appreciated!

    And as I suspected, the 15-radio call is king... although the 'golden' 15 radio call seems to be better *if* you want the Hero of the Day.

    Honestly, after those great calls, I'm not sure why NG thinks we will pay 20 radios per call.
    Putchuco
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Thx for the kind words @TransmuteJun, it is a pleasure to give back to the community.
    Many good examples lately where people from different guilds and countries came together to discuss and help each other. Very inspiring.

    And yes, I would SO love seeing the drop rates for the 15x special hero call (golden?) to compare them.
    Well, the current 20x special hero call already dwarfs the 'standard' 10x hero of the day call.

    I must admit I thought the 15x standard call would've been even better than it is, but it is quite close to the standard 5x call. Surprisingly.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
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