- 44.1% to see a 32 Carol ‘card’ in a draw of three (see A) - Since there are possibly higher-valued Carol tokens at the same time, the number (see B ) for getting a 32 Carol card, but nothing better (including leg/epic survivors) is about 29% - The chances for getting ANY Carol card in a three-card draw are: B + C + D = 38.8% (plus a small amount from Carol as a ‘regular’ hero, but that is a small number)
The ‘standard deviation’ in these cases is quite significant, so your results, especially with only a few calls can vary wildly. If someone were to make many calls, they would see the numbers approaching the above given digits, ‘lucky streak’ or not.
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I don’t like the fact the calls need 20 phones and the Carol tokens start at 32 instead of 64 like other events. I spent over 400 phones for 2 32 Carol tokens so the odds are not good.
is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
> @Zette said: > is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
> @David_H79 said: > > @Zette said: > > is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event. > > The special call will be back for the weekend.
@David_H79 But why was the 20 call removed when the ingame message indicates it would be available for the duration of the event?
Proud member of the Empty Memorial Club. WHMGTYSNNBC - Retirement Guild Leader Coming soon to Finland to hug Teeceezy. This space intentionally left blank.
Dear staff this is my start situation, in seven day i must find 1250 Carol Token to do Carol 1 pink star for take your rewards, people that have carol legendary before your event are penalizated, is impossible to do, i m really dissapointed and W ULTIMATE CHALLENGE
That does not quite jibe with my understanding of the math involved. I boiled down my question to something simple, what is the chance of getting at least one Carol card of any value. These are 3 independent events with a probability of .21. I think my math is correct (even though my probstat course in college was 38 years ago) so I do not know why your numbers are different.
@Rbredt yes, that number looks right, BUT a 32 carol doesnt mean much if you get a legendary survivor or a 256 abe card in the same draw. So, we are subtracting all cases where there is a better card in the same draw.
If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts, contact us via email at [email protected]
Ah, I thought it was a better Carol card, not just any “better” card. Not sure I would take a legendary survivor with bullet dodge over a Carol if I needed those Carol tokens for a promotion.
I don’t like the fact the calls need 20 phones and the Carol tokens start at 32 instead of 64 like other events. I spent over 400 phones for 2 32 Carol tokens so the odds are not good.
20 is kinda pricy, still too likely to get greens. Would be better if you could at least have a higher chance of blues for more tokens,
And After I finally scrape enough from the TG store, Getting multiple 32 calls, running the distance in Normal mode twice each of the last 2 times, even considered pick pocketing a guildmate, etc.. I find this today!
Descensus in cuniculi cavum Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit Concordia
I'm still wondering why i've spent 200 phones when i could have moved her to leg also with those distance, trade shop and daily quests tokens... damn rodent!!
"Always be yourself unless you can be a capybara. Then always be a capybara". --> Do you need a guild? ...send me a Private Message. My Recruiting den and my "Art Objects" in the Next Games Collection.
Really disappointed that I didn't get Carol to Legendary. She was only 1 trait off being able to be upgraded to legendart so bought all the trade goods tokens with crates and all 1 x 30 gold each time. Did the missions etc which I thought we were told if we did these etc we would pretty much be able to achieve it, I must've got that wrong. Did 3 Carol calls (only got 32 tokens needed 384 tokens). I'm still 184 tokens off. I refused to buy phones because drop rate was so low. Not gonna buy Carol packs for a $15 pitch fork when I'll probably never use her.
Thought I wasn't getting there, as only scraped enough phones together for 2 x 20 calls over the weekend. Last call got me 256 and just enough to promote to legendary.
Comments
- 44.1% to see a 32 Carol ‘card’ in a draw of three (see A)
- Since there are possibly higher-valued Carol tokens at the same time, the number (see B ) for getting a 32 Carol card, but nothing better (including leg/epic survivors) is about 29%
- The chances for getting ANY Carol card in a three-card draw are: B + C + D = 38.8%
(plus a small amount from Carol as a ‘regular’ hero, but that is a small number)
The ‘standard deviation’ in these cases is quite significant, so your results, especially with only a few calls can vary wildly. If someone were to make many calls, they would see the numbers approaching the above given digits, ‘lucky streak’ or not.
contact us via email at [email protected]
1 x 256 Carol
1 x 128 Carol (also 1 x 128 Morgan)
1 x 3 greenies
Got her to Legendary
Too bad I didn't have more phones
35% of my calls included Carol so I was on the lucky side of that 21% probability.
However every result was 32 and that feels unlucky.
If this kind of event recurs I will not hope for 1500 tokens and disappoint myself again.
Grats to those that were close to Carol's next level to begin with.
Links to threads that are useful for beginners (and in some cases even for veterans)
Every call I got 32 Carol expect 1 which I got 32 Jesus.
> is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
The special call will be back for the weekend.
> > @Zette said:
> > is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
>
> The special call will be back for the weekend.
thanks! i'll let my guildmates know.
WHMGTYSNNBC - Retirement Guild Leader
Coming soon to Finland to hug Teeceezy.
This space intentionally left blank.
> @David_H79 But why was the 20 call removed when the ingame message indicates it would be available for the duration of the event?
This question can only be answered by @Kaz
Dang only needed 1423 tokens to promote her to pink, so close....LOL no spear for me
That does not quite jibe with my understanding of the math involved. I boiled down my question to something simple, what is the chance of getting at least one Carol card of any value. These are 3 independent events with a probability of .21. I think my math is correct (even though my probstat course in college was 38 years ago) so I do not know why your numbers are different.
Carol P(A)=.21
Not Carol 1-P(A)=.79
Probability of 3 independent events...
Carol+ no carol*carol+ no carol*no carol*carol=
P(A)+(1-P(A))*P(A)+(1-P(A))*(1-P(A))*P(A)
.21+.79*.21+.79^2*.21=
.21+.166+.131=
~50%
So, we are subtracting all cases where there is a better card in the same draw.
contact us via email at [email protected]
2x128 Carol
1x32 Carol
Needed 1199 Tokens to upgrade Carol to pink.
And done.
Booya!
Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
Concordia
Getting multiple 32 calls, running the distance in
Normal mode twice each of the last 2 times, even considered
pick pocketing a guildmate, etc..
I find this today!
Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
Concordia
--> Do you need a guild? ...send me a Private Message. My Recruiting den and my "Art Objects" in the Next Games Collection.
WeLl, yes I do