CAROL WEEK SPECIAL 20CALL / POST YOUR CALL RESULTS

13

Comments

  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @Rbredt the chances are actually about:

    - 44.1% to see a 32 Carol ‘card’ in a draw of three (see A)
    - Since there are possibly higher-valued Carol tokens at the same time, the number (see B ) for getting a 32 Carol card, but nothing better (including leg/epic survivors) is about 29%
    - The chances for getting ANY Carol card in a three-card draw are: B + C + D = 38.8%
    (plus a small amount from Carol as a ‘regular’ hero, but that is a small number)

    The ‘standard deviation’ in these cases is quite significant, so your results, especially with only a few calls can vary wildly. If someone were to make many calls, they would see the numbers approaching the above given digits, ‘lucky streak’ or not.



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  • enigma12enigma12 Member Posts: 247
    I don’t like the fact the calls need 20 phones and the Carol tokens start at 32 instead of 64 like other events. I spent over 400 phones for 2 32 Carol tokens so the odds are not good.
  • TJSTJS Member Posts: 4,501
    I don't know how many calls I made exactly, probably around 6 - 8.
    Every call I got 32 Carol expect 1 which I got 32 Jesus.
    -
    TJS  -  Member of W-S
    Nation Wars 🇦🇺 Australian Team Captain
  • ZetteZette Member Posts: 330
    is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
    masmith93
  • David_H79David_H79 Moderator Posts: 1,866
    > @Zette said:
    > is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.

    The special call will be back for the weekend.
    ZetteShadowaceAzAlexFiliUK
  • ZetteZette Member Posts: 330
    > @David_H79 said:
    > > @Zette said:
    > > is it just me, but i thought the special 20 carol call would last for the whole event? it's listed in the in-game announcement as part of the event that lasts til the 5th. i have a few guildmates still trying to get her promoted and thought that call would be there for the duration of event.
    >
    > The special call will be back for the weekend.

    thanks! i'll let my guildmates know.
    David_H79
  • masmith93masmith93 Member Posts: 3,512
    @David_H79 But why was the 20 call removed when the ingame message indicates it would be available for the duration of the event?
    Proud member of the Empty Memorial Club.
    WHMGTYSNNBC - Retirement Guild Leader
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    Zette
  • David_H79David_H79 Moderator Posts: 1,866
    > @masmith93 said:
    > @David_H79 But why was the 20 call removed when the ingame message indicates it would be available for the duration of the event?

    This question can only be answered by @Kaz :)
    AlexFiliUK
  • OvergrowdaworldOvergrowdaworld Member Posts: 434
    I made 1 Carol call and got enough tokens to unlock her..... :smiley:


    bigbeanoShadowaceAz
  • NoccioloNocciolo Member Posts: 6
    Dear staff this is my start situation, in seven day i must find 1250 Carol Token to do Carol 1 pink star for take your rewards, people that have carol legendary before your event are penalizated, is impossible to do, i m really dissapointed and W ULTIMATE CHALLENGE
    anthony172masmith93pkerr116Buckzz
  • JohnbertJohnbert Member Posts: 116
    edited March 2018
    Made 4 calls. 128 Carol, green hell, 128 Carol, epic scout. Got very lucky, can't complain. Made her legendary as well.
    mack22ShadowaceAzbigbeanoGovernator
  • HeisenbergHeisenberg Member Posts: 180
    Only made 4 calls no Carol tokens, NO HERO TOKENS PERIOD!! WTF
    Dang only needed 1423 tokens to promote her to pink, so close....LOL no spear for me
  • RbredtRbredt Member Posts: 70
    @Putchuco

    That does not quite jibe with my understanding of the math involved. I boiled down my question to something simple, what is the chance of getting at least one Carol card of any value. These are 3 independent events with a probability of .21. I think my math is correct (even though my probstat course in college was 38 years ago) so I do not know why your numbers are different.


    Carol P(A)=.21
    Not Carol 1-P(A)=.79


    Probability of 3 independent events...

    Carol+ no carol*carol+ no carol*no carol*carol=

    P(A)+(1-P(A))*P(A)+(1-P(A))*(1-P(A))*P(A)

    .21+.79*.21+.79^2*.21=
    .21+.166+.131=
    ~50%

  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @Rbredt yes, that number looks right, BUT a 32 carol doesnt mean much if you get a legendary survivor or a 256 abe card in the same draw.
    So, we are subtracting all cases where there is a better card in the same draw.
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  • RbredtRbredt Member Posts: 70
    Ah, I thought it was a better Carol card, not just any “better” card. Not sure I would take a legendary survivor with bullet dodge over a Carol if I needed those Carol tokens for a promotion.
  • AlexFiliUKAlexFiliUK Member Posts: 163
    enigma12 said:

    I don’t like the fact the calls need 20 phones and the Carol tokens start at 32 instead of 64 like other events. I spent over 400 phones for 2 32 Carol tokens so the odds are not good.

    20 is kinda pricy, still too likely to get greens. Would be better if you could at least have a higher chance of blues for more tokens,
  • pirate1125pirate1125 Member Posts: 320
    Ha, its Friday and 40 call is back, not the 20
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,792
    Only for 1 day though! Guessing carol call back tomorrow @Kaz can we get confirmation of this?
  • KazKaz Member Posts: 1,423
    Hero-fest and Carol call are now live! (:
    David_H79
  • David_H79David_H79 Moderator Posts: 1,866
    Made another three calls.
    2x128 Carol
    1x32 Carol

    Needed 1199 Tokens to upgrade Carol to pink.
    And done. :)
    TJSdocfinzenburgbigbeanoGovernator
  • ShadowaceAzShadowaceAz Member Posts: 3,402



    Booya!
    Descensus in cuniculi cavum
    Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
    Concordia

    KazbigbeanoDodkongGovernator
  • David_H79David_H79 Moderator Posts: 1,866
    Really nice gear there @xbamfx :)
    docfinzenburgbigbeanomack22xbamfx
  • capibaracapibara Member Posts: 5,813
    I'm still wondering why i've spent 200 phones when i could have moved her to leg also with those distance, trade shop and daily quests tokens... damn rodent!! :#
    "Always be yourself unless you can be a capybara. Then always be a capybara".
    --> Do you need a guild? ...send me a Private Message. My Recruiting den and my "Art Objects" in the Next Games Collection.
    bigbeanoxbamfx
  • Tapatio75Tapatio75 Member Posts: 636
    No Carols but I cant complain

    WeLl, yes I do


    _Lily_Jadenxbamfx
  • The_OvercomerThe_Overcomer Member Posts: 182
    edited March 2018
    Really disappointed that I didn't get Carol to Legendary. She was only 1 trait off being able to be upgraded to legendart so bought all the trade goods tokens with crates and all 1 x 30 gold each time. Did the missions etc which I thought we were told if we did these etc we would pretty much be able to achieve it, I must've got that wrong. Did 3 Carol calls (only got 32 tokens needed 384 tokens). I'm still 184 tokens off. I refused to buy phones because drop rate was so low. Not gonna buy Carol packs for a $15 pitch fork when I'll probably never use her.
    MadPuppyxbamfx
  • MrsScattercushionMrsScattercushion Member Posts: 120
    Thought I wasn't getting there, as only scraped enough phones together for 2 x 20 calls over the weekend. Last call got me 256 and just enough to promote to legendary.
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