CEO of NG admits 27th April 2018 revenue decline due to players leaving NML

The_Overcomer

Well, they wouldn't listen to us, we warned them, and now it's official.

Chief Executive Officer Teemu Huuhtanen:
The number of active users in The Walking Dead: No Man’s Land declined which lead to a decrease in revenue. The main cause for the declined amount of active users was weakened retention of players.

Do they really think that people are going to invest in their new games and be taken for the same ride as NML, history repeats itself ...

LINK: https://www.nextgames.com/company-release/next-games-corp-business-review-q1-2018-revenue-declined-new-projects-proceeding-1524805397-4193/

war

Shocking

Cronus

...

Troublemaker

And they still think keeping us online 24/7 grinding like actual walkers is the way to go...

DLich

"Revenue decreased during the first quarter of 2018. The largest contributor to the decrease was the
change in daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU). The amount of monthly active users
(MAU) declined by 37%, which also led to the decline of daily active users (DAU) by 42%. "

23% of 124 is 29 people working on NML

"The change in ARPDAU (Average revenue per daily active user) was only $0.02 in US dollars but €0.04 in
euros. The depreciation of the US dollar had a significant impact on euro denominated sales. The biggest
reason for the decline of the company’s euro denominated ARPDAU figure was the unfavorable exchange
rate of the US dollar. Over half of the company’s sales is accounted for in US dollars."

How do you lose 42% of your daily active users yet only lose $.02 in US dollars of your Average revenue per daily active users?

Example (to keep the numbers low)

Suppose there are 1000 Daily Active Users... Now suppose 42% of them stopped playing... That's 420 people leaving.. and 560 remaining...

When you had those 1000 Daily Active Users, let's suppose NG made $1 per day from each... Their "ARPDAU" would be $1.00.

But if there are only 580 left (because 42% left or "decline of daily active users") and the change in ARPDAU was only $.02... then you have 560 people giving an average daily income of $.98

1000 people x $1 ARPDAU = $1,000 Daily
580 people x $.98 ARPDAU = $568.40 Daily

This shows how the ARPDAU can be lowered by only $.02 yet the income decreases by 43%. This shows me (in example) that 42% of the players that left made up 43% of the income so it's not the "whale's" leaving but still a decline in revenue is never good.

Gud

So NML will meet the same destiny as it sister game, Compass Point West.
NG aren't nice to their coustomers....

The_Overcomer

@DLich Just to let you know over time I've spend over $1,000 AUD... I stopped counting at $500 AUD and that was a year ago before December specials etc .... I thought that would have classified me as a Whale Player honestly ... I could be wrong ...

Shut_Up

It's all about either adding new users or keeping the old ones better and the users have been telling NG that NG isn't doing a good job retaining its older players so to see the actual stats is not shocking or surprising at all. Their business model is flawed and many people have already seen the writing on the wall when it comes to NGs longevity.

The_Overcomer

Gud said:

So NML will meet the same destiny as it sister game, Compass Point West.

NG aren't nice to their coustomers....

You are so right. I have started playing Our World BUT I am not spending the money on it... I'll play it as the new pokemon go and be a FTP player... So far its pretty good... The reason I wont spend Our World is lessons learned from NML, once bitten twice shy...

Bill_ZRT

DLich said:

This shows how the ARPDAU can be lowered by only $.02 yet the income decreases by 43%. This shows me (in example) that 42% of the players that left made up 43% of the income so it's not the "whale's" leaving but still a decline in revenue is never good.

Dammit @DLich, I still had to scan, errr read to the bottom to get your topic sentence.

I 100% agree with your conclusion that the data shows that they are losing people shortly after they pick up the game and it doesn't represent a huge turnover of heavy spenders. However, if you lose a player after only a few weeks, you lose the change to convert that person into an end gamer and heavy spender. Losing that potential revenue is what really hurts the bottom line.

DLich

The_Overcomer said:

@DLich Just to let you know over time I've spend over $1,000 AUD... I stopped counting at $500 AUD and that was a year ago before December specials etc .... I thought that would have classified me as a Whale Player honestly ... I could be wrong ...

I mean it could be some whales leaving. My math uses average. It's assuming that the 42% that played all spent an average of $1 daily. It's more realistic that maybe of that 42% only 10% were actual paying customers and the other 32% were just active players yet not spenders.

Using my math above...

1000 people x $1 ARPDAU = $1,000 Daily
580 people x $.98 ARPDAU = $568.40 Daily

those 420 people who caused the decline of $431.60... it's probably more realistic that of those 420 people about 3/4 of them didn't spend any money. I don't know the metrics of this game comparing the percentage of players who don't spend a time vs those that do.

420 people could easily be...
--- 315 who stopped playing daily and spend $0
--- 105 who stopped playing daily and spend $431.60 daily ($4.11 ARPDAU from these players / $1,500 a year)

Without knowing what percentage of players are F2P compared to those that are P2P it's impossible to determine if it's whales leaving or just players in general. I'm sure NG knows though

The_Overcomer

@DLich I must admit I love how good yo uare with stats etc.. Well done mate. I am sure that players have benefited from your calculations on phone drops etc for ages.. Also I was glad to see you come back to the forum after you had left...

The_Overcomer

Bill_ZRT said:

DLich said:

This shows how the ARPDAU can be lowered by only $.02 yet the income decreases by 43%. This shows me (in example) that 42% of the players that left made up 43% of the income so it's not the "whale's" leaving but still a decline in revenue is never good.

Dammit @DLich, I still had to scan, errr read to the bottom to get your topic sentence.

I 100% agree with your conclusion that the data shows that they are losing people shortly after they pick up the game and it doesn't represent a huge turnover of heavy spenders. However, if you lose a player after only a few weeks, you lose the change to convert that person into an end gamer and heavy spender. Losing that potential revenue is what really hurts the bottom line.

Agreed. I have played for about 2 years now... I also stopped for 6 months after they Nerfed outposts really badly and made them a walk in the park after all my months of hard work .. down the tube.. .

nadecir

If you take a huge hit in customers, along with a decline in ARPDAU, it means that you've lost some high revenue whales. Some of these whales have posted here about leaving, others left quietly.

It'splain to see NG doesn't care too much about player retention here with NML, and they've now planned in obsolescence for this game. If NG did care about player retention, they would take steps with significant investment to keep players. Obviously, that's not happening here. It's obvious that NextGames is counting on its new games to drive its future revenue. Whether their new games will be as popular as NML, well, only time will tell.

I am amazed at how short-sighted this company is sometimes. They don't realize that if they would have done more to keep the loyal players of NML satisfied, they would be much more likely to pick up one of their new games too. Once a player leaves, their lifetime value goes across all their products becomes $0. They are no longer advocates for your products. In addition, it's much less expensive to keep a player around then get a new one playing your game. Our World would have a sizable number of players to help jump start it if NG would have done a better job with player retention with NML.

NG has made some fundamental business mistakes. IMHO, they likely went public too soon, putting pressure on them to make their quarterly numbers instead of investing for growth long-term. NG's stock performance has been abysmal; it's even worse considering we are in an overall upmarket.

A 56% decline in year over year revenue speaks for itself. You can try to explain this away, but the stock market sees right through it. If things don't turnaround in the next couple of quarters for NG, I imagine stockholders will force the NG board of directors to will make a few management changes.

JeemPed

Crickets....all I hear is crickets from people who should be addressing this post.

warlordf

although i really enjoy this game, its something most of us are used and problably in a few years we are complaining of the same in another game forum, but for me i still enjoy the game and i will continue playing.

Pic

Pay attention to NML geez LA Weez =(

Jenng

Ya girl has a headache now.

kkatsu

nadecir said:

They don't realize that if they would have done more to keep the loyal players of NML satisfied, they would be much more likely to pick up one of their new games too.

Thats just straight to the point. Im still playing NML a lot however I know that I will never pick up any future NG game. Too much of negative stuff from my perspective as a player - poor customer support, not caring about our voice, not fixing annoying bugs, keeping us in the dark with plans and roadmap, we have no clue what direction this game is heading. And our biggest problem recently - the grind was fixed by, guess what, the grind. Well done. Kaz is the only bright spot but obviously they keep him by the balls as well so he cannot share much with us.

thisdoesfine

Stuff is too expensive for me. I've bought a couple gas boosters and once a gasand xp combo. As for anything over a couple $$, not for me. I'd spend a little to always unlock 6 chests instead if having to watch ads, that would be my biggest drop in $$. I'm not a whale, my income doesn't allow for that. I'm not poor, either. NG could be getting more out of me. I'll likely never buy any in game gear, it's obsolete too fast. That's always been my standpoint in video games with gear relative to a particular level.

As for my retention, I still enjoy playing.

I do not see a draw for new players with an important aspect of the game (badges) held for a considerable amount of grinding.

Hopefully NG figures out some good changes to keep people. Our guild has some awesome players getting 1500+ stars, I'd hate to see them go

Governator

> @Gud said:
> So NML will meet the same destiny as it sister game, Compass Point West.
> NG aren't nice to their coustomers....


CPW is the very ugly step-sister in this analogy.

Gud

I having problem to let the ugly step sisters hand to go.....

Kaz

I have to say that those Quarterly Reports are becoming my worst enemy, haha.

I won't be here to deny those numbers and information, but I can tell for sure that looking at things from inside the company, the path we are going seems promising. Not only for NG but for NML as well.

For a 3-year-old game based on a franchise that isn't so popular as it was before (but still huge!), we are doing pretty well if compared with the industry standards. Of course, based on that report it seems that we have no reason to celebrate and we should be desperate. But actually, thanks to our latest optimization and performance update in March, we have greatly increased our early-player retention, making we achieve the goals we've set for April (I guess this part will only appear in the Q2 report).

Regarding the not listening part, I don't agree with that, BUT it made me realize that maybe that's on me. I'm literally pushing your suggestions every day, not only about the challenge settings but also simpler things like Weekend/class/week events. However, maybe I'm not communicating it back to you guys. I would say that if a player suggests something and this suggestion appears in the game a couple of weeks later, it would tell them that we are listening and responding to it. But since it wasn't announced by me, it could look like a coincidence and not noticed by all the other players at all. So well... I can certainly improve on that.

Of course, we can't really apply 100% of the suggestions, but we do our best to try to address as much of your feedback as possible. Bigger things like @BiggyGuyinTWD suggested (the MASTER STAGE idea), we can acknowledge that it's a great idea (and Shteevie liked it a lot as well). But we can't:
1 - predict what would be the outcome of that and therefore justify why we cancel or delay another new feature or content
2 - say for sure if it's going to be added to the game at some point or not
3 - guarantee that it would solve the problem

So again, I can definitely update you guys about your feedbacks and suggestions more often.

And last but not least... announcing roadmaps and updates way before we have a concrete plan is really tricky. Things change a lot and I have experienced (more than I would like to) that changing plans is not so well received by the community. So if we are waiting to release our new content, trust me, it's for your own good. And as a matter of fact, I've already said somewhere that the upcoming update info will be released this month still.

And thank you all for your input.

Governator

Thanks @Kaz. A radio phone drop event this weekend will distract me from any pessimism I may develop from the financial reports.

flyingcowking

@Kaz please quit actively listening and being accommodating, we are trying to fight.

The_Overcomer

@Kaz I really appreciate when you came onboard. You actually did make a difference, bundle suggestions and answered most our questions. BUT where NG is not listening is the following. Last year and this year HEAPS of people said the grind was too much, I personally took 8 hours out of my week to hit nearly 1500 stars. This is crazy in my life to give up. Then the new rewards came, nearly all players said they were bad. Then the juggling of double round passes, less rewards. Then version 2 etc. The rewards is NOT fixed and thats why I left as many others. Communinty feedback said this was crap and still as of today is not fixed. I used to rack up 180 phones nearly in a week. Then that dropped significantly to about I tihnk 50 or 60. Even @Pain_Walker did a video saying he's not even playing which shocked me. So to say NG is listening honestly. They may have listened @kaz but they didn't do anything and act on pour feedback When your CEO says people are leaving us and player retention is bad, I told you guys this over 6 months ago. So honestly please don't say things are suggested and NG makes changes for the good. Nearly all of the changes that have been tweeked or made have been way worse than before. IE we warned you that mass exit that would happen and sure enough it did. Except for the new episode missions which are good for a couple of rounds, a couple of challenge maps which was great but the grind negates that, whats new really? The game is the same, grind is a chore like doing dishes rather than fun, freemen run rampant and dominate maps, challenge missions have been badly hard. storey missions dead, outpost nearly impossible to defend. so here are a couple of the questions and suggestions I made that never were answered.

* Use missions episodes to make new challenge maps, story episodes or new distance maps which as they art work etc was already build should be great for us, bew content and low cost for NG to revamp. This was never answered.
* Double tap trait - was meant to come, never did.
* PvP mode - I suggested this ages ago to give a new mode - WHY this is not done I dont know. Have a crate in the middle of a special or a couple of maps. Really players use their best guys to fight each other and possibly unlock a door or gate to reveal the crate and get some decent goodies in the middle. Maybe use crates to participate as usual or gas ...

As to your comment on not commenting what is next, that is a cop out,. As an example Animation Throwdown have advised things that are coming in advance. So we the players get excited and look forward to new things. They currently are about to launch combo mastery, to make your card combos stronger but you will have to earn tokens to train them up and make them stronger, awesome. But you saying oh, we dont want to say anything just in case things change. So what, things change, I'd rather have something to look forward tothan nothing. Do you think car manufacturers dont put concept cars out to see the public's reaction to generate interest to look at launching into production a new line of car? Of course they do. That's what concepts are. Do you think Samsung or Apple don't tell the public about up and coming phone, of course they do. It's to generate interest and hype around a product to get the buy in. WHEN has NG asked the players, "Hey guys, we're thinking of taking the game in this direction, what do you think?. "We're thinking of adding this, what do you think"?. I've NEVER seen that. I've said it before and I'll say it again, NG is not listening AND acting on player feedback. Hence your quarterly report. I will bet you next quarter won't be much better.

If players get disgruntled with you and leave, what makes you think you can win them back ? Normally once they are gone, they are gone. So even IF the May / June update is great, I believe it's to late... What company in their right mind leaves only 25% of its devs on its main cash cow and invests in the unknown and neglects its main source of income? Again refer to your quarterly numbers for the answer.

I've ranted enough and as usual it wont make any difference so ... "MIKE DROP ..."

Dodkong

Damn, you dropped Mike like a bad habit. Wasn't he treating you well enough?

Firekid

@Kaz it's not just the new content though, it's the bug fixes that have been around for ages. Like overwatch and retaliate. And things like swapping weapons and armour. Just have it that when you go to change weapons it shows all weapons even those assisgnd to others. If it is assigned it is swapped with them. If they are not high enough level then all survivors should have a base level 1 set available which shows base stats.
Doesn't sound too hard to code? Or is that really difficult? Bet you love armchair game designers!

Jenng

@Kaz

anthony172

@Kaz thank you so much for clarify our doubts and concerns. BUT i have another one.... its about some character.... and HER name start with the letter A and end with letter A. Jaja pls dont hate me jajaja love y'all. And again thanks @Kaz we are very happy that you, in fact, are listening to us thank you!!!!

ShadowaceAz

@Kaz if you really wanted to show you care, could you ask @Shteevie and the gang if they could rename some of the freemen and or walkers to Andrea to add her for a particular person. I know some people, maybe many, want more heroes added while others do not due to token dilution that is often discussed.

So maybe adding a Shane and Andrea freemen would satisfy this desire!

• Heath
  
• Cyndie
  
• Morales
  
• Shane
  
• Sherry
  
• Jeffrey Grimes
  
• Claudia
  
• Jenny Jones (Morgan's wife)
  
• Caesar Martinez (Thanks to the Governor) walker?
  

That's just a quick list of some who may or may not be missing/dead/animated etc that could have/might have/should have died or gone missing that could be explained as might not have taken enough brain trauma or were offscreen.

However adding Andrea as a walker at minimum (_preferred) would satiate at least some(one)