2500 gold components crate vs. 2000 gold crate - cheaper is better?

DrUnpleasant

So the current 'mid tier' options during this event are:

2500 gold:

• 1 random legendary component (16% chance of badge frag)
  
• 25 random components
  

2000 gold:

• 1 Epic Badge fragment
  
• 2 random epic components (2 x 16% chance, so 32% chance of another Epic badge)
  
• 20 random components
  

Taking the random components out (as the 20 and 25 scale with gold symmetrically)...

To my eye, the guarantee of 1 x Epic badge frag gives you a 70% chance of an Epic badge, and 6% chance of a Legendary badge - not to mention 2 Epic components (2 x 16% chance of badge frag = 32% chance overall). Mean average of 1.32 epic badges per person.

That to me seems better than the 1 x 16% chance of a badge frag you get from the 2500 chest. Averaging 0.16 leg badge fragments per person (then the lottery of whether you actually get a Leg badge...). Anyone disagree?

DLich

Could you imagine spending 2500 gold, getting 26 pieces and none of them being a badge fragment?

Here's how I see it. In both options you get "randoms" at a rate of 1 per 100 gold
25 randoms for 2500 gold + 1 random legendary component
20 randoms for 2000 gold + 2 random epic components & 1 epic badge fragment

I'd go with the 2K gold option between these two but that's just me.

The randoms cost the same; so it matters only which one you prefer (1 leg or 3 epic)

DrUnpleasant

Very much that. I'd far rather spend 500 gold less and have an average chance of 1.32 epic badge fragments rather than 0.16 legendary badge fragments for sure - especially as most people seem to have a lot more components than badge frags.

WellyLuga

If you get some good RNG those crates can be awesome. But I've watched the results from some of Painwalker's videos and after seeing that I could never spend that amount of gold on mostly 2/3* components (Not that I ever have 2k gold to spend even if I wanted to ).