2500 gold components crate vs. 2000 gold crate - cheaper is better?

So the current 'mid tier' options during this event are:
2500 gold:
To my eye, the guarantee of 1 x Epic badge frag gives you a 70% chance of an Epic badge, and 6% chance of a Legendary badge - not to mention 2 Epic components (2 x 16% chance of badge frag = 32% chance overall). Mean average of 1.32 epic badges per person.
That to me seems better than the 1 x 16% chance of a badge frag you get from the 2500 chest. Averaging 0.16 leg badge fragments per person (then the lottery of whether you actually get a Leg badge...). Anyone disagree?
2500 gold:
- 1 random legendary component (16% chance of badge frag)
- 25 random components
- 1 Epic Badge fragment
- 2 random epic components (2 x 16% chance, so 32% chance of another Epic badge)
- 20 random components
To my eye, the guarantee of 1 x Epic badge frag gives you a 70% chance of an Epic badge, and 6% chance of a Legendary badge - not to mention 2 Epic components (2 x 16% chance of badge frag = 32% chance overall). Mean average of 1.32 epic badges per person.
That to me seems better than the 1 x 16% chance of a badge frag you get from the 2500 chest. Averaging 0.16 leg badge fragments per person (then the lottery of whether you actually get a Leg badge...). Anyone disagree?
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Comments
Here's how I see it. In both options you get "randoms" at a rate of 1 per 100 gold
25 randoms for 2500 gold + 1 random legendary component
20 randoms for 2000 gold + 2 random epic components & 1 epic badge fragment
I'd go with the 2K gold option between these two but that's just me.
The randoms cost the same; so it matters only which one you prefer (1 leg or 3 epic)
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