Components used in crafting badges impact which effect you get!

magicmagic Member Posts: 132
edited November 7 in Strategy Discussion
Update: There is a pattern which kicks in when using the MeEdChCl. https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/41572/badge-crafting

The best thing with the pattern is that you can craft one DR-badge with your 5* components, then do 37 totally different recipes and then a new DR-badge with your 5* components. If you keep count you can use your 4* and 5* components on the badge types you really want, do you want a legendary damage flat without bonuses, then wait for the right time in the pattern and use your legendary components. Because you don't need to do all 38 MeEdChCl craftings, and the pattern will still be in place. At least that's how I think it works.

Here is my pattern: https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/comment/393525/#Comment_393525


For bonuses there is a cycle for every 19 craftings, and it's not depending on recipe.

Update: NG have confirmed that components used in crafting badges impact which effect you get. By default there are 1/8 chance of getting CC, CD flat, CD %, Dmg flat, Dmg %, DR, Health % and Health flat.

Do you want to get a badge with damage % value? Then try one of the recipes that have the highest probability for that effect. And please contribute with your samples, we need higher sample size to find out which recipes are the best for which effects.

Currently we have crafted 685 badges and organized them in this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12upknGvg82r2xPR25yQlc_asumNsW1YlUPScR6YajVo/edit?usp=sharing
I have registered which component used in what order and the exact result. I have tried to limit my recipes as there are potentially 256 different recipes, so that I can see if the most used recipes has any differences.
I want to know if components influence: set, shape, effect, bonus and level.

As you can see if you open the spreadsheet I get differences in set, shape, effect and badge level. But is that just because of my small sample size? To know for sure I need more data so if anyone wants to participate in this study please either make your own google spreadsheet or copy mine and fill it with your own data and share it in this thread. I recommend sticking to a couple of recipes as that will make it easier to see patterns. The more you can craft of each recipe the better.

I have created this discord channel for those that wants to discuss these results as it can be easier than doing so in a forum. And for discussions of any other aspect of the game:
https://discord.gg/QArWcDJ

Here is the average chance and the recipe with the best chance for each effect and effect types, to show what can be achieved:
EffectAverage probability (sample size: 685)Best recipe with sample size > 10ProbabilitySample size
CC %12,55%ClClEdMe21,74%23
CD %14,16%MeEdChCl22,97%74
CD14,01%ClClChEd26,32%19
Dam %12,99%ClClClEd16,67%18
Dam10,80%ClClEdMe21,74%23
Dam Res %11,09%EdEdClMe24,59%61
Health %10,95%MeEdChCl20,27%74
Health12,85%ClClClEd22,22%18
     
% value all61,75%MeEdChCl74,32%74
% value CD,D,H38,10%MeEdChCl58,11%74
flat value37,66%ClClEdMe52,17%23
CD% + Dam%27,15%MeEdChCl37,84%74
CD28,18%ClClChEd42,11%19
Dam23,80%ClClClEd33,33%18
Health23,80%ClClClEd38,89%18
EffectAverage probability (sample size: 685)Best recipe with sample size > 20ProbabilitySample size
CC %12,55%ClClEdMe21,74%23
CD %14,16%MeEdChCl22,97%74
CD14,01%ClClClCl20,69%87
Dam %12,99%ClClClCl16,09%87
Dam10,80%ClClEdMe21,74%23
Dam Res %11,09%EdEdClMe24,59%61
Health %10,95%MeEdChCl20,27%74
Health12,85%EdEdEdEd16,09%87
     
% value all61,75%MeEdChCl74,32%74
% value CD,D,H38,10%MeEdChCl58,11%74
flat value37,66%ClClEdMe52,17%23
CD% + Dam%27,15%MeEdChCl37,84%74
CD28,18%ChChChCh35,71%84
Dam23,80%MeEdChCl27,03%74
Health23,80%MeEdChCl32,43%74
I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
BurmeliinismirUrbanjesusanthony172
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Comments

  • BurmeliinisBurmeliinis Member Posts: 254
    if it's ok with you, I'll add your results to mine to get a more complete dataset
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    Sure, feel free to use my data!

    It's great to see that others share the same interest in finding some patterns here, I see that you have not separated % and hard value on Critical Damage, Damage and Health into different categories. As % is better than hard value at higher levels I think its interesting to hold them apart.

    Do you have your raw data? Did you collect set, shape and bonus condition? I have tried to go out as broad as possible to find all kind of patterns.
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
  • BurmeliinisBurmeliinis Member Posts: 254
    edited August 9
    I do have them separated, but in a different table. My assumption was always that the recipe only affects what effect you get of the badge (i.e. CC, DR, Dmg, CD or Health) and all the other badge elements (% or fixed damage, direction, type, bonus etc) are not dependant on the recipe.

    So in other words, how I believe the process works
    1. Based on the recipe, see what the trait of the badge is
    2. Based on the percentages shown on the crafting screen, see if you get an upgrade to the badge level
    3. Distribute badge attributes based on hard-coded percentages based on the badge trait

    For example
    - the direction of the badge is random
    - the type (A-E) of the badge is random
    - 70% of badges get a % effect and 30% a fixed effect
    - 75% of badges have a bonus requirement while 25% don't have a bonus (and instead 10% better base value)

    I will craft some 100 badges probably next week when I get my Craftsman upgraded so will post updated results then
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    Cool. Do you know exactly what the Craftsman does? All I know is that you get better badges and it is a while before I can upgrade it.

    I think the first priority is to get enough samples. Right now it's difficult to say anything for sure because our sample is so small. It might take some time to get to a sample size where we can be more confident, that's why I hope more people will find interest in this project and collect data.

    I found this dice roll simulator: https://www.geogebra.org/m/UsoH4eNl where you can simulate 100 dice rolls or 1000, and it visualize how great the randomness involved can be even when we craft 100 badges with the same recipe. Maybe we should aim to craft 1000 badges with each recipe.

    A recipe I am considering testing is 4xMetal, because I see that NG sells 12 metal and 3 badge frags as a pack. That might be a hint. Do you know if they have had packs like that with other content in the past?
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
  • ShayHaShayHa Member Posts: 265
    edited August 24
    Hey,
    Just crafted 34 badges and here are the results:
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1bzSo6IJMWclUTku4SJFPpGNLdemzCBddoltFnPutvM8

    I'll keep updating this once I craft again.

    P.S
    When you see high % consider it as regular. ( e.g 250% is +250 )
    SPC_TORRESDbl_Edge_DEP
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    Very interesting to see your results and thanks for sharing! Your results are quite different from mine for that recipe, but as our samples are low we cannot yet jump to any conclusions.
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
    ShayHa
  • ShayHaShayHa Member Posts: 265
    Just updated the file with the recipe CHCHEDME
    magic
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    So, does everyone just believe this statement on the badge crafting screen is a lie?
    (Paraphrasing)
    "All badge shapes, effects, and positions are equally likely to appear."

    You see this statement if you fill in the components and click the "i" for more information.

    Another "i" on the screen says that effects are critical damage, damage, etc.
  • Dbl_Edge_DEPDbl_Edge_DEP Member Posts: 504
    Perhaps.
    If we agree that recipes are bound to randomness. There have been times when I have crafted the same recipe back to back and got the same effect but varied badge positions and qualities. It would be great if there were a way to pre determine outcomes tho, we could just whip up 100 DR badges and cruise through missions like Ethan Hunt (pun intended).
    I plan for the best and I plan for the worst - Dbl Edge
    Show and prove, otherwise humble thyself
    Catch me on LINE app - Line ID: dbledgedep
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161

    Perhaps.
    ...It would be great if there were a way to pre determine outcomes tho, we could just whip up 100 DR badges and cruise through missions like Ethan Hunt (pun intended).

    I think that is exactly why it is random. They don't want us to be able to create the badges we need on-demand.

    If I had to guess, I would say NG made different components to allow for the option for recipes in the future. Or maybe they intended to do recipes, but quickly realized it would be better if players couldn't quickly get exactly the badges they need.

    If there were recipes, I have no doubt that the component(s) required for the most needed badges would be the rarest; the DR component could be rarer than badge fragments of the same level.
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    edited August 28
    This is what my information page says: "The Components you use will affect the Badges you create"
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    magic said:

    This is what my information page says: "The Components you use will affect the Badges you create"

    Fill in the fragment and components, then click the lower "i" button. It will say that all shapes, positions, effects, etc are equally likely to appear.

    Components definitely affect the badges as to the level of badge that is created. Maybe that is what your quote means.

    But I do agree it is at the very least ambiguous.
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    edited August 28
    @Fluxxx Can you weigh in on this?

    One information popup on the badge crafting screen says:
    "The Components you use will affect the Badges you create"

    The other information popup on the badge crafting screen says:
    "Badge shapes, effects, and conditions are all equally likely to appear."

    Obviously, the level of the components partly determines the odds of the badge level. But do the components determine anything else? Or is the statement that all shapes, effects, and conditions are equally likely to appear true?
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    edited August 28
    Ah, I just found the quote you were referring to. From that quote it might seem that only set is not equally likely to appear.

    But from my experience different effects are not equally likely, CD, Damage and Health are more likely than CC. Actually from crafting about 150 times I get: CC: 10%, CD: 25%, Dam: 25%, DamRes: 15% and Health 25%. I know my sample is too small to draw any conclusions with these numbers, but with conditions it gets even more skewed. Class is twice as common as Hero, and Hero is twice as common as trait.

    So I am really not sure what "equally likely" really means. Maybe it is between the different rarities? Because at that point you have already choosen the recipe.
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    @Fluxxx I'm not asking you to give any information about game mechanics. Can you please just confirm whether this information popup on the badge crafting screen is correct?

    "Badge shapes, effects, and conditions are all equally likely to appear."
  • OlafTheSmallOlafTheSmall Member Posts: 14
    crafted around 70 badges(20epic+10leg+rest) got 2 epic dr.
    "Badge shapes, effects, and conditions are all equally likely to appear." <-- I dont think its true

  • FluxxxFluxxx Community Manager Posts: 406
    By default, all badge types have equal chances. Then, the type of components you use will affect the outcome but only marginally.
    psychwolf
  • BurmeliinisBurmeliinis Member Posts: 254
    Fluxxx said:

    By default, all badge types have equal chances. Then, the type of components you use will affect the outcome but only marginally.

    Thanks for the confirmation. I so still wonder if that's really true, as I think it's pretty clear Critical Chance badges appear a lot less frequently than other badges, and Damage Reduction also less than Damage, CD and Health.
    Drhoo
  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,267
    > @Fluxxx said:
    > By default, all badge types have equal chances. Then, the type of components you use will affect the outcome but only marginally.

    Is this a joke? I just double counted, out of the 190 epic and legendary badges I have, a grand total of 12 are damage reduction. 9 epic and 3 legendary.
    190 badges over 5 categories, 12 seems pretty out of balance for something that's supposed to have equal chances. Wow.
  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,267
    edited August 30
    Am I misunderstanding the statement, badge types have equal chances?
    For me, 38x5=190. I should have closer to 38 DR badges, yet I have 12... That's a very sizeable disparity and not what I would call anything close to equal.
  • NerfZone187NerfZone187 Member Posts: 546
    > @psychwolf said:
    > Am I misunderstanding the statement, badge types have equal chances?
    > For me, 38x5=190. I should have closer to 38 DR badges, yet I have 12... That's a very sizeable disparity and not what I would call anything close to equal.



    I have crafted 100+ leg frags and i still only have 5 leg DR.

    NG is a purveyor of #FAKENEWS
    psychwolf
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    Fluxxx said:

    By default, all badge types have equal chances. Then, the type of components you use will affect the outcome but only marginally.

    @Fluxxx

    Thanks for the response; honestly, it isn't the answer I expected.

    The problem is that the Information screen containing the quote only appears AFTER you have selected your badge fragment and 4 components. After you select all of your components, the system says "Badge shapes, effects, and conditions are all equally likely to appear." If the components have even a marginal effect on the outcome, then that statement is completely false.

    I believe NG should make it a priority to correct that statement. Based on that statement, I basically threw combinations of components together to make badges; I didn't pay attention to the formula or track the results because it shouldn't matter (according to that statement.) I'm not happy, because I have spent time, money, and gold on components and then possibly used them very unwisely because I relied on all outcomes having an equal chance. I have almost 460 badges; I've trashed hundreds. So I'm guessing I have crafted close to 1000 badges. (NG probably has the number.) This is a big deal.

    (Lastly, my apologies to those who have been tracking their results; I thought you were all nuts. You're not nuts; I'm just naive.)
    psychwolfMacV
  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,267
    "Badge shapes, effects, and conditions are all equally likely to appear."
    That is indeed a false statement and Fluxxx just admitted to it.
    Is it legal to charge people money for a feature that tells them the odds are equal when they are not? If not, it's highly unethical.
    Badge effects are definitely not equally likely to appear. I've not heard of anyone with more DR badges than any other category. Sure is a lot of health and CC going around though.
  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,267
    > @Fluxxx said:
    > By default, all badge types have equal chances. Then, the type of components you use will affect the outcome but only marginally.

    Again, this is a completely conflicting statement. All badge types cannot have equal chances if the type of components you use will affect the outcome AT ALL, even marginally.
  • magicmagic Member Posts: 132
    @Fluxxx not everyone reads the forum, I think it would be nice to update the ingame message with what components affect and what they don't affect.

    At the first screen you have the message: "The Components you use will affect the Badges you create." Some people will interpret this as Components only affect the rarity. Can you update this message with what it actually affects? Like: "The Components you use will affect the rarity and the effect of the Badges you create." Or add sets, shapes, conditions, effect values, if these are affected too?

    And you might change the message for drop rate info too, maybe to: "Badge shape and set type are all equally likely to appear", if those actually are, but I don't see how conditions and effects can be equally likely, even from my small sample.
    I am collecting badge crafting results. If you want to contribute please note down as much about each crafting as you can in the sequence you craft and send it to me. Recipe, effect and bonus condition is especially interesting.
    Discord server to discuss badge crafting: https://discord.gg/PvWYqaQ
    MacV
  • ShayHaShayHa Member Posts: 265
    edited August 31
    I have an engineering degree and 5 types equally pop up while crafting does not add up with any of the crafting people share.
    Maybe.. NG math is wrong?

    Some more samples:
    Craftsman level Input level Output level Set Position Type Effect Bonus Recepi
    2 2 2 E top-left Health 816 204 with hunter CHCHCHCH
    2 2 2 A top-left Health 8% 2 with ruthless CHCHCHCH
    2 2 2 C bottom-right Health 828 207 with vigilant CHCHCHCH
    2 2 2 C right Health 850% 212 with bruiser MEMEMEME
    2 2 2 A top-right Dmg 263 66 with carel MEMEMEME
    2 2 2 C left CD 376 None MEMEMEME
    2 2 3 C left CD 13% 3 with michonne MEMEMEME
    2 2 2 C left CD 10% 2 with hunter MEMEMEME
    2 2 2 A top-left Health 8 None EDEDEDED
    2 2 2 A top-left DR 7 2% with assault EDEDEDED
    2 2 2 E bottom-left Dmg 7 2% with hunter EDEDEDED
    2 2 2 E right Dmg 275 None EDEDEDED
    2 2 2 E right CD 366 92 with rufus EDEDEDED
    2 2 2 A top-left Dmg 7 2% with shooter EDEDEDED
    2 3 3 E top-right CC 7 2% with daryl CLCLCLCL
    2 3 3 B bottom-right CD 13 3% WITH BRUISER CLCLCLCL
    2 3 3 B left CC 12 None CLCLCLCL

    psychwolfNerfZone187
  • BurmeliinisBurmeliinis Member Posts: 254
    Ok, so I checked all my 680 badges. Here are the results:

    Effect:


    Doesn't look like it's equal chance to me.

    The next ones look more like they should:

    Direction:


    Set:


    Bonus requirement:


    For bonus requirement subrequirement, the numbers drop (680 * ~25% so only around 150 data points) so hard to say if there is just not enough data points to get to equal chances or if something else is going on.

    If class:


    If Hero:


    If Trait:

    psychwolfMacVGrady
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 161
    I feel cheated / deceived by this. The first thing that needs to happen (ASAP) is that the information posted on the badge crafting pages should be updated.

    I also had an idea that might help make up for the problem.

    How about a Damage Reduction Badge Crafting Event? During the event (which should last a week or at the very least a weekend), all badges that are crafted have a 50% chance of being damage reduction. Also, Health, Damage, and Critical Damage badges will be percentage badges only - no fixed numbers. Maybe even throw in no Critical Chance badges for the event.

    This should be held alongside a component event, with plenty of component bundles, trade shop components, and gold component purchase options.

    I think that 30 days notice should also be given for the event, so players who don't spend on badge components will have time to save up as many as they can.
    psychwolfMacVShayHa
  • ShayHaShayHa Member Posts: 265
    @Burmeliinis are these 680 badges considered ones that have been scrapped? (or you didn't scrap any?)

    @Grendel I liked that idea of event but sadly I don't think we will see such event.
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