@Burmeliinis - Have you considered that there are 8 badge types instead of 5? Look at your distribution of badges, and consider that flat value badges are a separate type from percentage value. Only Damage, Health and Critical Damage badges have flat values as well as percentage values, so the game may be counting these as separate for purposes of probability. That would explain the numbers you see in your results.

@Burmeliinis - Have you considered that there are 8 badge types instead of 5? Look at your distribution of badges, and consider that flat value badges are a separate type from percentage value. Only Damage, Health and Critical Damage badges have flat values as well as percentage values, so the game may be counting these as separate for purposes of probability. That would explain the numbers you see in your results.

Interesting idea, one I have not considered. Here are the stats using that breakdown:

These are the stats collected in my sample. I know the sample is too small to draw conclusions, but considering that recipe give some variations this might really be the case, they are not far from 12,5% Need a larger sample to conclude.

My apologies for the delayed response, busy times 😅 It is indeed 8 categories instead of 5 - so, for example, Flat damage badges and % damage badges are considered separate badge types. But, the information popup is misleading since it only shows up after you input the components and fragment into the slots, so we'll update that. Basically, components affect the badge effect only, conditional effects, strength, and position will still have equal chances of coming up.

We will consider simplifying badge crafting in the future, but I can't promise anything though.

Basically we have this: - 25% chance for Health boost - 25% chance for Damage boost - 25% chance for Critical Damage boost - 12.5% chance for Critical Chance boost - 12.5% chance for Damage Reduction boost

That doesn't look like an equal chance at all badge effects. It looks like we have a 1/8 chance of getting a Damage Reduction badge, which is then lowered even further if we don't use the right combination of mystery components.

The first information box on the badge crafting screen says:

"Badge Effects Badges can increase your damage, health, chance for critical hits, and more."

With that wording, an increase to damage is one badge effect. But the system is treating it is two.

I don't believe a % increase and a flat rate increase to the same thing should constitute 2 different effects (especially with the wording of the above description of badge effects). Please consider switching to 5 effects and then do a separate roll for % or flat rate when needed.

DoomSquad United Leader...teaching the young to fight! New to the game, come to our guild,it has several high level players 2nd accounts there willing to help you grow. We have a chat group where we share videos and strategy.

Flat rate badges are great for low level players, so I don't think it would be fair to new players to remove them.

We just have to put some effort into logging recipes and the effect they give and we can find recipes that have higher chances for Damage Reduction than 12,5%. And we can find recipes that have higher chances for % values than flat values.

My apologies for the delayed response, busy times 😅 It is indeed 8 categories instead of 5 - so, for example, Flat damage badges and % damage badges are considered separate badge types. But, the information popup is misleading since it only shows up after you input the components and fragment into the slots, so we'll update that. Basically, components affect the badge effect only, conditional effects, strength, and position will still have equal chances of coming up.

We will consider simplifying badge crafting in the future, but I can't promise anything though.

Ok, just to be clear. It's 8 different effects, and my and @magic 's stats show that these are distributed fairly evenly - but the recipe of components do still have some kind of effect on the badge effect. Is that correctly understood?

@Burmeliinis I think your understanding is correct. Do you still have your data with the recipes and which of the 8 effects you got from each recipe? We need a large sample size of each recipe you know!

Hold the fracking elevator, NG is now saying recipes matter? I'm pretty sure this notion was rebuffed by NG, repeatedly since badges were introduced. I also want to say they denied, repeatedly, that there was any difference in the chances of badge types. Countless post regarding dr badge drop rates have been posted and ng, until now, always denied the difference, if they responded at all. And they just sat there as ng sycophants insulted anyone who used real world results in evaluating the accuracy of the info given to them.

When did they first finally admit this info? And, for the record, I think 12.5 is way too high an estimate for dr. Maybe 2 months ago I did about 80 and got 2 dr badges. 2.5% is just a tad bit lower than 12.5.

@dlb I haven't been able to find anywhere where they deny this, searching this forum I have only found comments where they confirm that recipes matter. If you find any comments where they deny this please post a link.

When you did those 80 craftings, which recipes did you use?

@magic the badges were about 2 months ago and I generally just use one of each. The statements regarding drops and recipes would be back in the KAZ era, so it's been a while. I tried recipe theory and saw no difference, though sample size was way too low. Eventually I quit reading them because it appeared pointless. Only paid attention to this one because my guild mate is in the convo. Everything is as real as the mind perceives it to be, so meh...

@magic , unfortunately I did not record flat rate and % rate as separate, so will have to dig in a bit to see if I can get my data in that form.

@dlb, my testing, while quite limited, seems to indicate that one component of each type (which I guess could be the most popular recipe) is not great for DR badges. With 30 tries I got 3 DR badges so 10%.

Glad I ran into you 2 because I want to run some things by you. Basically I think NG runs a crooked table. A year and a half, maybe 2, I tracked gold reward boxes because I was sick of seeing so many of them out of reach unless I spent gold. 3 samples of 100 over about a 4 month period with breaks between each sample. Because challenge crates and scavenge crates have the same rewards, but season missions do not, I gave up my peaceful moments with Tara on the beach.

The results of all 3 samples were very close, like maybe 3 was the largest difference between high and low outcome. I lost the paper but rember some important details. Something like 43% of all gold boxes were in the 3rd set of boxes , only available if you use gold. The second pick was spot on. This one was hard to forget because the results were 32, 33, and 34, for average of 33. that leaves us with about 24 for selection 3. It looks like ng is screwing the people who keep this game going the most. Buy gas and get screwed more if you do more than 4 missions an hour.

Also, think about how often 75% stun gear fails 3 times in a row. Though it's true the are independant, but they also live in a universe that has structure to its randomness. I say with a high degree of confidence that it seems to fail 3 in a row more than 2 in a row. 5, maybe 6 weeks back there were 2 fatties hitting 2 bruisers and 1 bruiser was stunned 4 times in a row and the other 3 of 4. Last challenge I had a hunter using Daryl's oxbow, 45%, with 20 lucky trait, and a second hunter with gold incendiary, 50%, 23% on her lucky trait, plus her gun had silver lucky. Both got off 4 shots and no fatties got set on fire. I remember how to compute the odds of consecutive events with the same probability but not when they differ. But I know it's in the slim to none range 8 shots get nothing. Back to the boxes, how often do you see the same combo of gold and 2 silver and all 3 are in pick 3? 15 phone special hero calls, I've got a .14 cubed chance of all 3 coming up the hero of the day, yet I get one probably every 3 months or so and I just started buying phones. So my phones are coming from game play.

NG claims boxes are random but I say bullshit. I think they have a predetermined set of outcomes that are intentionally rigged to screw the players and they randomly pick from that set. Do you have any similar observations?

I think you are seeing things that are not there, but maybe it's just that I don't believe in conspiracies. I do notice that thing with gold boxes, and I did once record the outcome on the gold boxes of 100 missions, and I got like 62% or something like that (always using the free extra openings so expected outcome 66%). I do think that it's just our minds screwing with us. We are really good at seeing patterns, so we do remember when we miss out the gold chest several times in a row, but when we get them we forget about that since that was the expectation so in our minds it feels like we lose a lot more than we should.

I did 3 sets of 100 and all 3 were consistent. That being said it was a while back. When u say stunners, are you talking bruisers? I'm talking about my toons with 75% stun resistence being stunned by fatties.

I see, I don't have a lot of stun resistance either. But those resist quite often. Maybe you play at a higher level? And it is harder to resist at higher levels?

## Comments

1662481927697166Edited to add that this is based on 680 badges.

30248It is indeed 8 categories instead of 5 - so, for example, Flat damage badges and % damage badges are considered separate badge types. But, the information popup is misleading since it only shows up after you input the components and fragment into the slots, so we'll update that.

Basically,

components affect the badge effect only, conditional effects, strength, and position will still have equal chances of coming up.We will consider simplifying badge crafting in the future, but I can't promise anything though.

97Basically we have this:

- 25% chance for Health boost

- 25% chance for Damage boost

- 25% chance for Critical Damage boost

- 12.5% chance for Critical Chance boost

- 12.5% chance for Damage Reduction boost

That doesn't look like an equal chance at all badge effects. It looks like we have a 1/8 chance of getting a Damage Reduction badge, which is then lowered even further if we don't use the right combination of mystery components.

The first information box on the badge crafting screen says:

"Badge Effects

Badges can increase your damage, health, chance for critical hits, and more."

With that wording, an increase to damage is one badge effect. But the system is treating it is two.

I don't believe a % increase and a flat rate increase to the same thing should constitute 2 different effects (especially with the wording of the above description of badge effects). Please consider switching to 5 effects and then do a separate roll for % or flat rate when needed.

29630We just have to put some effort into logging recipes and the effect they give and we can find recipes that have higher chances for Damage Reduction than 12,5%. And we can find recipes that have higher chances for % values than flat values.

16630208When did they first finally admit this info? And, for the record, I think 12.5 is way too high an estimate for dr. Maybe 2 months ago I did about 80 and got 2 dr badges. 2.5% is just a tad bit lower than 12.5.

30When you did those 80 craftings, which recipes did you use?

208Edited for spelling

166@dlb, my testing, while quite limited, seems to indicate that one component of each type (which I guess could be the most popular recipe) is not great for DR badges. With 30 tries I got 3 DR badges so 10%.

208Glad I ran into you 2 because I want to run some things by you. Basically I think NG runs a crooked table. A year and a half, maybe 2, I tracked gold reward boxes because I was sick of seeing so many of them out of reach unless I spent gold. 3 samples of 100 over about a 4 month period with breaks between each sample. Because challenge crates and scavenge crates have the same rewards, but season missions do not, I gave up my peaceful moments with Tara on the beach.

The results of all 3 samples were very close, like maybe 3 was the largest difference between high and low outcome. I lost the paper but rember some important details. Something like 43% of all gold boxes were in the 3rd set of boxes , only available if you use gold. The second pick was spot on. This one was hard to forget because the results were 32, 33, and 34, for average of 33. that leaves us with about 24 for selection 3. It looks like ng is screwing the people who keep this game going the most. Buy gas and get screwed more if you do more than 4 missions an hour.

Also, think about how often 75% stun gear fails 3 times in a row. Though it's true the are independant, but they also live in a universe that has structure to its randomness. I say with a high degree of confidence that it seems to fail 3 in a row more than 2 in a row. 5, maybe 6 weeks back there were 2 fatties hitting 2 bruisers and 1 bruiser was stunned 4 times in a row and the other 3 of 4. Last challenge I had a hunter using Daryl's oxbow, 45%, with 20 lucky trait, and a second hunter with gold incendiary, 50%, 23% on her lucky trait, plus her gun had silver lucky. Both got off 4 shots and no fatties got set on fire. I remember how to compute the odds of consecutive events with the same probability but not when they differ. But I know it's in the slim to none range 8 shots get nothing. Back to the boxes, how often do you see the same combo of gold and 2 silver and all 3 are in pick 3? 15 phone special hero calls, I've got a .14 cubed chance of all 3 coming up the hero of the day, yet I get one probably every 3 months or so and I just started buying phones. So my phones are coming from game play.

NG claims boxes are random but I say bullshit. I think they have a predetermined set of outcomes that are intentionally rigged to screw the players and they randomly pick from that set. Do you have any similar observations?

16630I haven't done any logging on stunning, since I use stunners too seldom to get enough samples. But it would be interesting to log.

20830208