Call to Arms event!

This is an attempt to forecast weapons that will appear during the Call to Arms event. {last update 3/22/2020}
*********************** intro ***********************
My decision to buy or skip the offered weapons depends on:
- cost, i.e. what if tomorrow a similar one would cost more or less? so far the cost stable 1k.
- my gold balance, i.e. what if tomorrow there will be better offering and I don't have gold?
- weapon itself, i.e. must have vs nice to have.
Based on all above, the big question is - how can I know if today is the best offer, or should I wait for a better one.
*********************** guessing ***********************
Since we have 6 classes and 7 days:
- it's likely we get one class weapon per 6 days, with a potential twist on the day 7. <<Update>>: this got broken on day 6, when instead of a scout weapon we got another hunter weapon)
- It's likely the cost will stay 1k gold during the first 6 days.
- It's unlikely we get weapons of different quality (tier) during the first 6 days, i.e. if we have mid-tier buckshot shotgun for hunter on day 1, we won't have top-tier dragon tongue for warrior.
*********************** confirmed ***********************
- Day 1 Buckshot Shotgun
- Day 2 Festive Lucille
- Day 3 Chainsaw
- Day 4 Spear Gun (was guessed correctly)
- Day 5 Dixieland BBQ (was guessed correctly)
- Day 6 Flaming Crossbow (who would expect the hunter weapon again?!!!)
- Day 7 Tactical Spear
*********************** Tiers & Probabilities ***********************
Top tier - LOW probability to appear, with exception to day 7.
hunter: harpoon
bruiser: Morgan staff, hockey stick
scout: tactical spear, daryl's hunting knife, pitchfork
assault: golden assault rifle
shooter: flare guns
warrior: dragon's tongue
Mid tier - HIGH probability to appear at days 1-6.
hunter: festive shotgun (confirmed), flaming crossbow (confirmed), golden incendiary rifle, RPG
bruiser: festive Lucille (confirmed)
scout: pumpkin carver, musket (highest probability), cheap spear, winter axe (lowest probability)
assault: LMG, DixieLand BBQ (confirmed), Pickle Jar, the Reconnin'
shooter: spear gun (confirmed)
warrior: chainsaw (confirmed), winter shovel, road sign
Unique weapons w/o special functionality have almost no chance to appear, hence I'm skipping Michonne's Katana, Rick's mace, someone's special pistol, etc.
*********************** intro ***********************
My decision to buy or skip the offered weapons depends on:
- cost, i.e. what if tomorrow a similar one would cost more or less? so far the cost stable 1k.
- my gold balance, i.e. what if tomorrow there will be better offering and I don't have gold?
- weapon itself, i.e. must have vs nice to have.
Based on all above, the big question is - how can I know if today is the best offer, or should I wait for a better one.
*********************** guessing ***********************
Since we have 6 classes and 7 days:
- it's likely we get one class weapon per 6 days, with a potential twist on the day 7. <<Update>>: this got broken on day 6, when instead of a scout weapon we got another hunter weapon)
- It's likely the cost will stay 1k gold during the first 6 days.
- It's unlikely we get weapons of different quality (tier) during the first 6 days, i.e. if we have mid-tier buckshot shotgun for hunter on day 1, we won't have top-tier dragon tongue for warrior.
*********************** confirmed ***********************
- Day 1 Buckshot Shotgun
- Day 2 Festive Lucille
- Day 3 Chainsaw
- Day 4 Spear Gun (was guessed correctly)
- Day 5 Dixieland BBQ (was guessed correctly)
- Day 6 Flaming Crossbow (who would expect the hunter weapon again?!!!)
- Day 7 Tactical Spear
*********************** Tiers & Probabilities ***********************
Top tier - LOW probability to appear, with exception to day 7.
hunter: harpoon
bruiser: Morgan staff, hockey stick
scout: tactical spear, daryl's hunting knife, pitchfork
assault: golden assault rifle
shooter: flare guns
warrior: dragon's tongue
Mid tier - HIGH probability to appear at days 1-6.
hunter: festive shotgun (confirmed), flaming crossbow (confirmed), golden incendiary rifle, RPG
bruiser: festive Lucille (confirmed)
scout: pumpkin carver, musket (highest probability), cheap spear, winter axe (lowest probability)
assault: LMG, DixieLand BBQ (confirmed), Pickle Jar, the Reconnin'
shooter: spear gun (confirmed)
warrior: chainsaw (confirmed), winter shovel, road sign
Unique weapons w/o special functionality have almost no chance to appear, hence I'm skipping Michonne's Katana, Rick's mace, someone's special pistol, etc.
My F2P challenge videos are here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAl_96Zig2NXqvGM_2Mf5Aw
imnfiction#8607 on Discord.
imnfiction#8607 on Discord.
3
Comments
> Is it just regular weapons you can find in crates or unique ones?
Today is the shotgun, so likely they’ll all be unique, buyable weapons
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imnfiction#8607 on Discord.
https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/40263/wild-walking-is-actively-seeking-new-members"
Realistically, the cost to purchase a weapon with gold should be no more than 400 Gold. Anything more than that just steers people to purchase better-valued bundles for a 25% savings vs using gold in the shop.
Please consider the logic and make the corrections.
https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/40263/wild-walking-is-actively-seeking-new-members"
I do think the cost is a bit high but then if they're offering some of the best weapons in the game then okay.
I recommend if you're free to play player and you have some gold stashed up and save it for the weapons that are absolutely necessary.
The buckshot shotgun that is being offered today is really cool and nice but definitely not necessary for free to play
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imnfiction#8607 on Discord.
Among several problems with this dynamic is the weapon's value. I do not even need to explain why I do not agree that 1000 gold is a fair value since my colleagues have scored this issue so well before me.
The period that we are having access to this event also does not seem to be the best as we are in the middle of a seasonal campaign where the overwhelming majority of players are investing 400 gold in the repetition of the distance mode every week.
It also doesn't seem fair to me not to disclose which weapons will be participating in the event since most of us don't usually stock that much gold. If we knew what was coming, we could program ourselves to buy the weapon that really makes our eyes shine.
Finally, I would like to leave a idea so we can future terms a sequence of this event in proper way to happen in my opinion.
In place of a "lightning" event that ended up taking everyone by surprise, NG could create "Community Day" and once a month offer a special weapon so that we can buy using gold. With a prior announcement of which weapon would be the highlight, we could program ourselves to buy the desired weapon on Community Day. I know it would be useless if it was still expensive, but we would have a chance to mine enough gold to make the purchase.
How many threads have their been asking for special premium weapons in the trade shop. NG have answered this request in the only way they can without hurting their bottom line. Yes of course buying any of the weapons which will be offered this week for real money in the bundle store is going to be better value, but that’s the point, you pay real money you get a better deal.
The one thing I would say is the timing of it really sucks and should not have been done during the campaign. Maybe going forward you could do 1 weapon on the first Tuesday of each month during tradeshop Tuesday a weapon for 1000 gold.
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imnfiction#8607 on Discord.
For scouts I will guess a SS Spear, I don't think they will give out a Tactical one for free.
There is already a Festive Road Sign in the Guild Wars shop so I think there is a pretty decent chance for another Dragon's Tongue.
We are about to get the Decimator and we already got a Golden Assault Rifle, so my guess for assaults is that it won't be a stunning weapon. Probably Light Machine Gun or Dixie Land BBQ.
Wildcard for 7th day: An RPG (hopefully the Devil's Torch), if I recall correctly they made some adjustments to them in the update so perhaps they let us try it out.
Basically I am not expecting anything too amazing.
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> (Quote)
> IMO, for end-gamers, it is a not-needed-at-all item. I bought the buckshot shotgun a while ago, and am only using on Maggie when I farm XP in the Distance... Like @WellyLuga said, Harpoon is the most valuable Hunter weapon in the game, followed by Festive Shotgun, and then a normal fire rifle (wide bore, lucky, incendiary), and then the Flaming Crossbow. I almost never take more than two Hunters on missions, so having two Harpoons and a Festive Shotgun is more than enough for me.
@JayZ Since you did it for hunters, could you or someone else rack and stack the usefulness of bruiser weapons in the same way?