Just burned through 1500+ radios... Here are the results

So, after reading that there is probably no reason to save radios waiting for something magicall to happen, I decided to use... all of them :D
Below you can see the results, I will also make a google spreadsheet with raw data for anyone to play with. And a video, a video of course so you can all tell me what choices did I make right or not :p

Raw data (Card numbers are from left to right 1-left one, 2-center, 3-right one):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WzxW2qjGjdwRQSbiOfli6QNskpp02oW9X4Z48XymhDs/edit?usp=sharing

A small summary:


The video:
SCBMACRUSHGovernatorgespuerantAmazaynMaD VapoRKyrusDLichBill_ZRTKrulljesterOneVoicePain WalkerStarkhornOneLessTitanJadenJackBauer

Comments

  • iozzegiozzeg Member Posts: 158
    Not a single Rick either :/
    bsgper4GovernatorSCBMAJaden
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,725
    Thanks for sharing the raw data!

    You only got 3 rare survivors in 39 out of 100 calls, which is certainly not too shabby. Getting an epic, leg, or hero in 3/5 calls is pretty decent odds.
    Proud member of Mavericks OG, a top 3 global GW and challenge guild.
    Message me on the forums or on Line (ID: jayztwdnml) if you're interested in joining the Mavericks family of guilds.

    Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGSePrANMyf_S_YKJyfJodg
    Strategy compendium: https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/41787/jayzs-nml-strategy-compendium
    DLichSCBMA
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,547
    edited January 2017
    That sucks

    image
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    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    JackBauer
  • SoLDieRDaPSoLDieRDaP Member Posts: 53
    Very disappointing

    szgerg77
  • Bill_ZRTBill_ZRT Member Posts: 1,421
    Much love for sharing the data!
    Everyone’s got two wolves inside them. One is anger, envy, pride. The other…truth, kindness. Every day they tear each other apart.
    But it’s not the better wolf that wins. It’s the one you feed.

    Contact [email protected] or send @Bill_ZRT a message to join DTP today!

    JackBauerSurvivor420
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,547
    to piggy back off @OneLessTitan post here, these numbers are closely in line.


    Just did the write up for the Eh Family's data collection of Radio Calls during the 2.1 Update. Plus, I added my thoughts on how Radio Calls operate with multiple "rolls" of the RNG.

    You can view all of the data here:
    https://twdnomansland.wordpress.com/radio-call-drop-rates/


    Here's my summary on how I think the Radio Calls Operate: (steps 2 & 3 three are my suspected odds for 15x "Golden" Radio Calls)

    1. When you make a Radio Call, the Random Number Generator (RNG) decides if you will get a Survivor or Hero Tokens as your "Choice." This appears to be 90% chance of a Survivor, and 10% chance of Hero Tokens. I will call this "Type" of Choice. I think the Type of Choice is the same for Bronze, Silver, and Gold Radio Calls.

    Based on this 100 calls & 300 possibilities it's found that 91% of the time a survivor was attained and 9% of the time a hero was attained


    2. After the Type of your Choice is determined, then a second RNG occurs to determine the "Prestige" of your Type. For Survivors, it appears that your Prestige odds are 80% for Rare, 18.5% for Epic, and 1.5% for Legendary. For Hero Tokens, I believe it's probably the same odds: 80% for 32 Hero Tokens, 18.5% for 128 Hero Tokens, and 1.5% for 256 Hero Tokens.

    216 out of 300 were rare (72% overall); 216 out of 273 (79.12% overall) if you remove hero's
    52 out of 300 were epic (17.33% overall); 52 out of 273 (19.05% overall) if you remove hero's
    5 out of 300 were legendary (1.67% overall); 5 out of 300 (1.83% overall) if you remove hero's

    23 out of 27 were 32 tokens (85.19% overall)
    2 out of 27 were 128 tokens (7.4% overall)
    2 out of 27 were 256 tokens (7.4% overall)


    3. After the Prestige of of your Choice is determined, then the "Class" of your Choice is determined by the RNG. For Survivors, all classes are equal at 16.67%. For Heroes, I believe the odds to be something approximating this: Glenn is 25%, Jesus/Maggie/Abraham are 20%, Carol & Rick are around 6-7%, and Michonne is around 1-3%, as reflected by their new Starting Rarities. It's also possible that Carol/Rick/Michonne each have a 5% drop rate.

    Now this was written back in October so this was before the introduction of Rosita, Tara, Rufus, Negan & Morgan and before Daryl was available in radio calls. Although I do believe the odds are equal and @iozzeg sample size although is large enough to gather good data from, on a much larger scale would be closer to 16.67% for each it varies in this example from 10.67% to 20%.

    I do believe (as clearly seen) there are various odds of achieving different hero's but regarding survivor types It's spot on. Because OneLessTitan's example above is from prior to 5 additional hero's being added and it can be seen from the OP the odds of drafting a specific survivor it's worth noting (as stated above) that in 100 calls (1500 radio's) not once did Michonne or Rick show up.

    But in this example -

    Abraham showed up 2 out of 27 times - 7.40%
    Carol showed up 3 out of 27 times - 11.11%
    Daryl showed up 2 out of 27 times - 7.40%
    Glenn showed up 3 out of 27 times - 11.11%
    Jesus showed up 4 out of 27 times - 14.81%
    Maggie showed up 3 out of 27 times - 11.11%
    Morgan showed up 4 out of 27 times - 14.81%
    Negan showed up 1 out of 27 times - 3.70%
    Rosita showed up 2 out of 27 times - 7.40%
    Rufus showed up 1 out of 27 times - 3.70%
    Tara showed up 2 out of 27 times - 7.40%

    Michonne showed up 0 out of 27 times - 0%
    Rick showed up 0 out of 27 times - 0%


    4. If you get a Survivor, the last step for them is an RNG that determines the Traits, with all Traits having an equal chance (in theory).

    I am not going through the video to write down traits... That's TOO MUCH INFO even for me :)

    image
    | OG | NOC | USA | UK | CA | CQR | UC | RAD | ZEN |
    Other Leaders | Kick_ass | Pic | abailey362 | GunnerGaz | JMo2127 |
    MAVERICK'S 1 Million Star Club | OG | USA | NOC
    Analyze This with ALF4reals | v1 | v2 | v3 |
    | My YouTube Videos | My 1st Interview | Best Analogy Award!! |

    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    iozzegTransmuteJun
  • iozzegiozzeg Member Posts: 158
    edited January 2017
    @DLich I've kept 1 leg bruiser, 3 epic assaults and 2 epic scouts, that had to be done either to receive hero tokens or just because it was not worth it at all.
    And also thaks for your great work on numbers, I couldn't make myself count all the specific ratios after entering all the raw data :D
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,547
    The moral of the story I posted above (thanks to those that took the time to read it); @OneLessTitan was pretty much spot on on how RNG calculates things...

    Part 1 if it's a hero or a survivor (spot on)

    Part 2 if it's rarity will be rare(32)/epic(128)/legendary(256)
    ----- survivor portion was pretty spot on
    ----- hero portion 27 is a small sample size
    We'd need a huge sample size (based on this 100 calls getting 27 hero's we'd need 1000 calls to get 270 hero's for a larger sample size.... @all anyone have 15,000 radio's they want to burn? lol

    Part 3 is different with the introduction of hero's because there's more hero's so the "pool" is depleted now

    Part 4 i'll let someone else do the work on that ;)

    @iozzeg thanks again for sharing this with the community :)

    image
    | OG | NOC | USA | UK | CA | CQR | UC | RAD | ZEN |
    Other Leaders | Kick_ass | Pic | abailey362 | GunnerGaz | JMo2127 |
    MAVERICK'S 1 Million Star Club | OG | USA | NOC
    Analyze This with ALF4reals | v1 | v2 | v3 |
    | My YouTube Videos | My 1st Interview | Best Analogy Award!! |

    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    iozzegAmazayn
  • QuinnsenbergQuinnsenberg Member Posts: 11
    No wonder Rick & Michonne are the only heros i dont have looking at that drop rate!
    iozzeg
  • TransmuteJunTransmuteJun Member Posts: 2,172
    Thank you for the awesome breakdown, DLich!
    iozzegDLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,547
    The hardest part of all of this is trying to accurately figure out the odds of getting a specific hero. It took you 1,500 radio's just to draft 27 and there's 13 possible hero's that someone can attain (11 if you remove Rick and Michonne since everyone believes they are impossible ;) )

    Based on the 1,500 radio's for 27 hero's someone would need to spend close to 5,556 radios (371 calls) to attain 100 hero's for a decent sample size.

    Anyone have 5,000 radio's they'd like to burn in the name of NG science?

    image
    | OG | NOC | USA | UK | CA | CQR | UC | RAD | ZEN |
    Other Leaders | Kick_ass | Pic | abailey362 | GunnerGaz | JMo2127 |
    MAVERICK'S 1 Million Star Club | OG | USA | NOC
    Analyze This with ALF4reals | v1 | v2 | v3 |
    | My YouTube Videos | My 1st Interview | Best Analogy Award!! |

    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    AmazaynJackBauerSurvivor420
  • AmazaynAmazayn Member Posts: 522
    @DLich you're a math wiz!!! i'll make a video once i have 5k radios.
    DLichJackBauer
  • JayZJayZ Member Posts: 3,725
    @DLich I'm probably burning 1500 tonight and logging my calls in the same format as the one posted here. I would encourage other people who are leaning towards doing a mass burnout to do the same.
    Proud member of Mavericks OG, a top 3 global GW and challenge guild.
    Message me on the forums or on Line (ID: jayztwdnml) if you're interested in joining the Mavericks family of guilds.

    Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGSePrANMyf_S_YKJyfJodg
    Strategy compendium: https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/41787/jayzs-nml-strategy-compendium
    DLichGovernator
  • Alin109Alin109 Member Posts: 28
    Will do the same when i'll have 1500 , 300 more to go
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,547
    I saved @iozzeg's spreadsheet which is awesome btw. Makes it extremely easy to organize the data. Definetely if anyone's going to use radio's I'll be happy to compile one master sheet. 400-500 total calls (3-4 more people using 1500 radio's for 100 calls each) should be a fairly decent sample size.

    ** I am not encouraging anyone to burn 1500 radio's; but I do encourage you to track the data for the community purposes


    image
    | OG | NOC | USA | UK | CA | CQR | UC | RAD | ZEN |
    Other Leaders | Kick_ass | Pic | abailey362 | GunnerGaz | JMo2127 |
    MAVERICK'S 1 Million Star Club | OG | USA | NOC
    Analyze This with ALF4reals | v1 | v2 | v3 |
    | My YouTube Videos | My 1st Interview | Best Analogy Award!! |

    Freemium... the "mium" is latin for 'not really'
    ggbatsGovernator
  • iozzegiozzeg Member Posts: 158
    If anyone is interested I've been using drop down lists in excel for a quick data entry in the Color and Class columns, which is possible both in Microsot Office and in Googles spreadsheet. That allowed me to do it all simultaneously with making radio calls.
    DLich
  • 8N88N8 Member Posts: 164
    I would like to see the same experiment done, but with the special 10 hero phone calls, but I don't want to see someone pay double the radio phones for 95% of their tokens to give regular survivors and 5% heroes
    Survivor420
  • Marie__GagaMarie__Gaga Member Posts: 145
    edited January 2017
    Thank you for your statistics and for providing the raw data. I had to go through this to compare with the current results of many german players contributing to my statistics.

    I only count the best results of the three guys you could choose of. The more token you get the better, but when there is the same amount of hero tokens and normal tokens, hero tokens count.

    We have 126 calls in our stats and got 6.23 tokens per phone. Your result is 5.87 tokens per phone, which is significantly worse.

    We have these results in our list:

    43 times 3 stars
    46 times 4 stars
    7 times 5 stars
    17 times 32 hero tokens
    9 times 128 hero tokens
    4 times 256 hero tokens

    As we compared with 1, 5 and 10 phone calls, we can say that 10 phone calls are the worst with 2.56 tokens per phone. Even hero tokens are just at 1.44 per phone while there are 1.44 hero tokens per phone in a 15 phone call.

    5 phone calls are at 4.33 tokens per phone and 1 phone calls at 4.89 tokens per phone, but we only have 30 1 phone calls in our stats.

    The quintessence? If you're optimistic, wait for another phone event like better chances for legendary survivors or 33 percent discount for the 15 phone call. Or you just do 15 phone calls now. All other calls are a waste of phones.
    --- Marie
    --- Hell Family ---
    DissileiozzegGovernator
  • bsgper4bsgper4 Member Posts: 309
    Oh man. @Aniel, that first screenshot was just rude! Sick sick bastards NG.
    SCBMAGovernatorJaden
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    edited January 2017
    Great work @iozzeg

    I've got a google form that I've use to track results with. Perhaps if there's enough interest I can start a thread for the community to input their results? I burned over 3,000 radios the last few days, so a good start on the tracking. And if @iozzeg doesn't want to re enter them again, i'll watch the video and put them in for them in gratitude for posting results!!!

    Take a look at the form and let me know if there's any errors/mistakes. I've been working with it for a while, so i think it's okay, but some sections haven't really been used. I opted for multiple choice over drop down box since it's quicker for me to get through.

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfEaNaDaEEcYZWeTljxjx7JR4WXeoDbIInEtzVHdpF0yM5BgQ/viewform

    I'll just start the thread, and if no one wants to participate, then that's fine...it can die!!
    jesterMarie__Gaga
  • TXbossTXboss Member Posts: 36
    I'd love to get a view on whether the drop %s shift for when you reach lvl 20 survivors. Since reaching the "end game" I get the sense that I now get slightly better pulls from the 15 radio calls, which might make sense as lvl 20 players might need to see more tokens to remain interested - and many are on the long slog to their first and second pink stars. I also feel hero drops are marginally improved. Anyone else feel the drops improved when they passed lvl 20?

    Anotherr random impression with no stats to back it up: I swear I get better results when I do 15 calls one at a time rather than hoarding. I seem to get all rares about 60% of the time when burning a hoard of 100+ radios, but when I burn 15 radios when accumulated, the results SEEM better.

    Sorry for having no stats to backup this hunch, but interested in other player's experiences.
  • Pain WalkerPain Walker Content Creator Posts: 2,627
    edited January 2017
    Burned through 360 radios!!




    Probably making a video!

    My Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/MultiPainproduction
    1RisSCBMA
  • GovernatorGovernator Member Posts: 4,455
    Awesome Thread! I got 2217 radios to burn through... Probably will spread them out over the week.
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