Getting 5 Star Survivors

245

Comments

  • aysatyoaysatyo Member Posts: 352
    1radio is 0.09999% chance of 5*
  • SabrinaSabrina Member Posts: 144
    edited January 2016
    Since character lottery revamped w Radio Tent, after some experiments I have done only 15 unit phone calls. Hunters were quite common before The Tent, now decent hunters are very hard to get. Instead of a lot of 3* or 4* scouts and assaults. Haven't kept exact stats, just feeling.

    So do not kill ur hunters in Deadly.
    - Sabrina, lv60 LVT (Life-TIme Profit), Elder of Suomikilta I-V -
  • pandolyronpandolyron Member Posts: 15
    12 x 15 call

    1 bruiser 5*
    1 bruiser 4*
    1 shooter 4*
    1 soldier 4*
    And 8 x 3*

    That's not too bad considering some called 10x15 call during the rate up and got nothing but rare. But no hunter is quite sad :neutral:
  • pandolyronpandolyron Member Posts: 15
    I remind getting my first legendary from a single call. But it's quite a big luck call as i've done over 50 single before hitting the jackpot :blush:
    ggbatsTastycakes
  • mackmack Member Posts: 29
    I even hate to post this but here it goes.. I'm sure it's just luck but I have gotten 9 legendary survivors by using 5 15 radios. It doesn't work everytime but it seems to be working for me. Once again sure it's just luck...
    smasherseibuz
  • aysatyoaysatyo Member Posts: 352
    mack said:

    I even hate to post this but here it goes.. I'm sure it's just luck but I have gotten 9 legendary survivors by using 5 15 radios. It doesn't work everytime but it seems to be working for me. Once again sure it's just luck...

    uhmm.. 9 legendary in 5X 15call? you mean you keep 75 radios and use it all at once at 15radio call. and you get most of the time 1 legendary? and now you have 9 legendaries doing that?
  • mackmack Member Posts: 29
    Yeah I use 75 radios at a time. No I didn't get them all at once. I started week one. Not sure if 9 legends is good but it's more than what I been seeing.
  • mackmack Member Posts: 29
    I would show ya but I don't know how to post pics on here.
  • mackmack Member Posts: 29
    3 warriors 2 hunters 2 shooters 1assault and 1 scout.
  • PoppyPoppy Member Posts: 1,146
    I know it's random but somethings off when some players have lots of legendarys and some can't even buy one.

    I've pulled 1 since the fame was launched a guild mate has about 7 and been playing the game less time, they got two Tuesday in fact.
    ggbatsVintage_Bull
  • KnsCtyShfulKnsCtyShful Member Posts: 19
    blynknz said:

    So far, based on the numbers you have in your OP (which is still pretty small sample size), its actually better to pull 1 star.
    Currently, if you had 150 radios, you would get
    1R = 3x 5*
    5R = 0x 5*
    15R = 1x 5*

    Quick maths -
    So for it to be better to use 15radios (x), the percent needs to be higher than the 1Radio(n) by 15 times
    x = (15n). So if 1Radio is 1% chance, then 15Radio would need to be better than 15%.
    2% = 30%

    You're right that I don't have enough data yet. That's why I was hoping to have people post what they draw here so we can get enough of a sample size.
  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988

    blynknz said:

    So far, based on the numbers you have in your OP (which is still pretty small sample size), its actually better to pull 1 star.
    Currently, if you had 150 radios, you would get
    1R = 3x 5*
    5R = 0x 5*
    15R = 1x 5*

    Quick maths -
    So for it to be better to use 15radios (x), the percent needs to be higher than the 1Radio(n) by 15 times
    x = (15n). So if 1Radio is 1% chance, then 15Radio would need to be better than 15%.
    2% = 30%

    You're right that I don't have enough data yet. That's why I was hoping to have people post what they draw here so we can get enough of a sample size.
    The other problem is that the developers could tweak the %'s at any time without mentioning it, and that just screws all the data gathering. I've had that on another game where we were gathering data, then things started looking weird. We realised they had just changed it.
    We will only know if they realise that info to us, which I know they wont.
  • mindsoremindsore Member Posts: 70
    I just burned up all my radios I had been saved, using the 15 radio call method. here is what I got.

    scout 1, 3* & 1 ,4*
    bruiser 1, 4*
    assault 1, 4 *
    warrior 1, 3*& 2, 4*
    shooter 3, 3* & 1,4*

    no hunters and of course, no legendary at all......
    hope it helps in the research, it did nothing to better my game.
  • VerbaubVerbaub Member Posts: 650
    I have found if I get in a rut when using radios if I force shut the game and re-boot, I get better randomization from my radio tent. Just my experience, but it might be worth trying. My team is mostly Epics, I have 3 Legendaries active + 2 more that I lost on missions.
  • JodipayneartJodipayneart Member Posts: 72
    I only do the 15 radios call and I get epic and legendary survivors. What I do is wait till I get a ton of radio calls. Then I do a whole bunch of them all at once using the 15 call one. I never keep anything lower than epic. If I do get something lower than epic I keep it for a little while and then replace it with the epic or legendary survivor. I think the best way to do it is not just keep anything you get. You may go through a lot of radius of the soon as you keep the lower level survivor keep getting lower-level survivors . Anyway it's worked for me. Also I save all my gold and buy all 20 slots for survivors.
    Tastycakes
  • jesterjester Member Posts: 2,754
    I did 4 5 radio calls.

    4* hunter (7/15, meh) I'll keep for now.
    3* bruiser
    2* warrior
    2* scout
    Steffen
  • CapletonCapleton Member Posts: 441
    @solegendary And all those leggies will be retired soon cause they are maxed...sounds great to me ;)
    Moriturus te salutat

    Found his home in Asylum
  • DonCoquiDonCoqui Member Posts: 586
    grimey said:

    my last 6x 15 radio calls have been
    ...
    ...
    so at 750 gold per 15 radios about 10$ so 60$ for 2700x6 exp = 16200 exp. What an amazing return. i'd be better of doing 1 radio calls that would have netted me around 4900 x 75 = 365 750 exp. Thats 20x the amount of exp. Do you get it yet nextgames?

    Do I run the risk of getting banned for agreeing w/ Grimey?

    Staying plugged in w/ the forum for a good dose of daily entertainment .
    "You wanna impress me? You take the wheel for a little while mofo." --Eddie Murphy, Delirious
  • SteffenSteffen Member Posts: 8
    Please post more data guys! Let us analyze your radio calls. Very important besides your results of calling survivors, player level and radio tent level is whether you use your radios at once or do you make your calls seperately (because playing missions renews the queue)

    Thx!
    ****KriegerDerNacht****


  • SdotSdot Member Posts: 33
    null
    +1million
  • kidnapkinkidnapkin Member Posts: 49
    my last 2 x 15 radio calls at tower lvl 5
    epic shooter (keep)
    rare bruiser (abandon)
    Steffen
  • SteffenSteffen Member Posts: 8
    Anyone else?
    ****KriegerDerNacht****


  • rusimanrusiman Member Posts: 2
    I run some probability calculations. Based on the numbers in the original post if you spend 1 radio the probability of getting each star is approximately

    1 star - 63.5%
    2 stars - 28.8%
    3 stars - 5.8%
    4 stars - 1%
    5 stars - 1%

    (detail for geeks: in the original post nobody got a 4 star survivor which would give a 0 probability of 4 stars, to avoid this I split the probability of 5 stars which is around 2% into 1% for 4 stars and 1% for 5 stars -- adhoc but reasonable)

    Now, let's assume that each time you use a radio the result is independent from previous calls (which it will in most pseudo-random number generators that the game programmers are likely to have used). Then using the Binomial distribution the probability of getting at least one 5 star survivor by making n successive 1 radio calls is

    1 - (1- 0.01)^n

    For instance, with n=5 successive 1 radio calls the probability of getting at least one 5 star survivor is 1-(1-0.01)^5=0.047. If instead we were to make n=15 successive 1 radio calls the probability goes up to 1-(1-0.01)^15= 0.135. This is almost double 6/98= 6.1% which based on the data in the original post is the proportion of times you get a 5 star survivor when making a single 15 radio call.

    Of course the calculations above are imperfect, we're working only with estimates so the actual probability of getting a 5 star survival with a single 1 radio call is not exactly 1%. However even if it were only 0.5% the probability of getting a 5 star survival with 15 successive 1 radio calls would be 7.0%, still higher than the 6.1%. And importantly if you make 15 successive calls you're not only getting that one 5 star survivor (hopefully) but many other survivors (for instance, it's not impossible that you might get a 5 star and a 4 star survival, or even two 5 star survivors, and as side bonus you get xp's for all the survivors you discard).

    For the real geeks this calculation is similar to a problem in probability theory called the "birthday problem" (finding the probability that two people sitting at a table have the birthday on the same date), it's one of those situations where probabilities can be very misleading (in our case suggesting that we should spend 15 radios on a single call) unless you crunch the actual numbers. :-)

    Remurder is a crime.
  • mifonsmifons Member Posts: 6
    I spent about 200 radios for 15 at a time with a lvl 10 radio tent, and I only got 1 epic bruiser and 1 epic hunter. The rest were mostly rare.
    Now what I find lacking in this trend is regarding the event that increases ur chane to get a legendary. From what I recall, I had 45 radios when there was such event; and after spending 15 at a time, I only got 1 lvl 5 legendary scout. The rest were rares.
    In hindsight, I think spending my supply to upgrade my radio tent was unwise, because I the max lvl I got was lvl 8 survivors; worse, a lvl 5 legendary scout. Anyway, excellent job for the effort to crack the probabilties; but for me, I'd rather save my radios until the aformentioned event comes by once again. I hope I helped.
    Tastycakes
  • KnsCtyShfulKnsCtyShful Member Posts: 19
    There still isn't enough data for 1 and 5 radio pulls to draw any conclusions, plus I'm not 100% certain that they guy who said he drew the legendary from a 1 radio pull was being 100% honest.
    kidnapkin
  • JennyJenny Member Posts: 346
    I've been saving my radios since last "radio weekend" so I had a ton but ended up with 6 legendaries yesterday using my radio calls. I nearly fainted! They are my first legendaries!
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    edited February 2016
    Here is the breakdown of my 25 (x15) radio calls from the "Event" weekend...

    # of Radios: 15 each call
    Radio Tent Level: 7 (max survivor level = 14)
    Player Level: 36
    Council Level: 14
    #1: 5 star, Scout, Level 8
    #2: 4 star, Scout, Level 10
    #3: 3 star, Bruiser, Level 9
    #4: 3 star, Warrior, Level 11
    #5: 4 star, Warrior, Level 10
    #6: 5 star, Hunter, Level 9 (THANK YOU JEEBUS!!!)
    #7: 3 star, Assault, Level 10
    #8: 3 star, Assault, Level 10
    #9: 3 star, Hunter, Level 10
    #10: 3 star, Warrior, Level 11
    #11: 3 star, Scout, Level 11
    #12: 3 star, Warrior, Level 11
    #13: 4 star, Bruiser, Level 9
    #14: 4 star, Bruiser, Level 8
    #15: 4 star, Assault, Level 9
    #16: 4 star, Hunter, Level 9
    #17: 3 star, Scout, Level 9
    #18: 3 star, Assault, Level 11
    ***I waited and did the final 7 after I upgraded my Council to Level 15.
    #19: 3 star, Hunter, Level 11
    #20: 5 star, Assault, Level 9
    #21: 4 star, Bruiser, Level 8
    #22: 3 star, Hunter, Level 11
    #23: 3 star, Bruiser, Level 11
    #24: 4 star, Warrior, Level 8
    #25: 4 star, Scout, Level 10


    I'm pretty happy with the result, especially with the 5 star Hunter and Assault! I ended up keeping 8 of these survivors (out of my 15 slots), so I upgraded in quite a few spots. It was odd that I didn't get one shooter (of any level) out of 25....hopefully next event!
  • sH1VasH1Va Member Posts: 1
    I've spent my 100 radios by 5 and this is resullt

    4*Scout
    3*Shooter
    2*Hunter
    2*Warrior
    2*Assault
    3*Warrior
    3*Hunter
    3*Scout
    2*Assault
    2*Assault
    2*Shooter
    3*Shooter
    2*Assault
    2*Shooter
    2*Scout
    2*Warrior
    3*Warrior
    2*Bruiser
    4*Hunter
    2*Scout

    So 2x4* , 6*3* , 12x2*

    Nexttime i will collect 150 radios for 15 radios calling
  • AysatyoPetAysatyoPet Member Posts: 1,168
    What's the point of statistics if the dice chançe got rerolled every time you make a call? For example: if i hold a pebble on one of my hand, and i let you choose which hand has it, that means you have a 50% chance of getting it right.. and then you fail to guess correctly. Then i hid my hand behind my back and put the pebble on either left or right hand. Then let you choose again.. again, you have 50% chance since you only have 2 choices. We could repeat this 100 times but the result is gonna be random and not 50% guarantee. Although your chance is always 50% every time. This same thing applies to this game as well. Saying 10% legndry chance wont guarantee 1 legendary out of 10 calls..

    JennySenoiaSurvivor
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