What is the relationship between Body Shots and Critical Hits?

dylanarenadylanarena Member Posts: 78
Hi everyone,


I’ve seen a few theories on the forum and elsewhere about how body shots and crits interact. (I’ll ignore Dodge for simplicity in the scenarios described below.)

Theory 1: Each attack is determined to be either a crit, a normal hit, or a body shot in a single “roll” (i.e., single selection of a pseudo-random number from the RNG). If this theory is correct, then when Sasha is your leader, you’d want to avoid using traits that improve the chance of crits, because those would decrease the chance of body shots.

Theory 2: A first “roll” is used to decide whether an attack is a hit or body shot, and then for a hit there’s a second “roll” to decide whether the hit is a crit. If this theory is correct, then having crit-enhancing traits wouldn’t affect whether your toons get body shots (and hence whether Sasha grants charges).

We know that body-shot probability increases when your toons are lower level than their enemies, and I think most people consider it a known “fact” that (ignoring Piercing) body shot probability goes up by some amount for each level disparity in the enemies’ favor, with pink stars counting as “bonus levels” for this calculation. [EDITED TO ADD: I had thought the probability was 20% per level, but @OneLessTitan's video linked below suggests that it starts with 33% at ASL+3 and goes to 100% at ASL+5.]

So if my legendary lvl23 toon is attacking a lvl29 enemy without any relevant traits (Piercing, Accurate, etc) and thus with only the base 10% chance of crit, there are two possible probabilities:

Theory 1 would say that my toon has a 100% chance of a body shot (because 29-23=6, and 6*20% > 100%) but also a 10% base chance of a crit (with perhaps the crit being turned into a regular hit because of the level disparity or something), so effectively a 90% chance of a body shot.

Theory 2 would say that my toon has a 100% chance of a body shot and that therefore there’s no chance of a crit (because crits only arise from non-body-shot hits).

And if I were to equip this legendary lvl23 toon with a 15% Accurate weapon, then Theory 1 would say that the toon’s chance of a crit would rise from 10% to 25%, whereas Theory 2 would say that I’d still have a 100% chance of a body shot (and hence a 0% chance of a crit).

Does anyone have firm evidence (good data from game play or clear statements from the fine folks at NG) about whether Theory 1 or 2 is correct? @Kaz, if it’s not a closely held secret, this would be a great favor to the community to shed some light on!


Thanks in advance,
Dylan
Japes87SilverSkullRoshwarlordf
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Comments

  • David_H79David_H79 Member Posts: 1,866
    I guess theory 2 is close to be correct.
    jimmorrison369JimiFaith
  • WellyLugaWellyLuga Member Posts: 3,051
    Body shots override crit chance. Once you get to a position where it's 100% chance for a body shot you will have 0% chance for a crit. The only times you'll get a crit is with charge attacks or piercing.
    jimmorrison369KazATLAS-ZJimiFaith
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,546
    Theory 2 is my theory. Literally. I posted that a while back I’ll find the thread “soon”

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,546
    Anyone who regularly faces lvl 29+ can shed light. How many pink stars their attacker has and if it possible for a non charge attack to be a non body shot.

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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    I can tell you. Body-shot >> critical chance.
    If a body-shot, no possibility for critical hit.

    Look here.

    While not explicitly mentioned. If you read that discussion you can come to conclusion that body-shots win from critical.
    David_H79
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    This post was the specifically
    Shteevie said:

    Right now, there is no way to affect the chance of your attacks being body shots. If that is something that the community would want, we can certainly take the suggestion.



    As for the armor being sold, I think you're right, but it may just be a case of keeping info current across a large group of people. The fix for the trait is impending, but players who upgraded it right away are getting a suboptimal deal. I'll bring it up with the people who plan the bundles.

  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    All above aside. I know for sure none of the critical chance in the world will ever prevent a body-shot.
    This is tested many times, by many people. Same conclusion comes along every time.
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    To sum up your thread that is if you are playing to max potential Crit Chance badges are completely worthless. That is why I am so extremely happy 3 of my 5 legendary badges are crit chance meaning pure shit. I get to level 31 most weeks and just give up.
    R2runfast
  • JackBauerJackBauer Member Posts: 1,550
    Does this from @OneLessTitan help?

    -----------------
    Remember to use your charge abilities
    jimmorrison369dylanarenaantMattOfEarth
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    Seems like @OneLessTitan was spot on in that video.
    The only thing he "forgets" to mention is:

    It does not matter how many levels a walker is above your survivor.
    If you have 30% piercing. You'll always have a minimal non-bodyshot chance of 30% (so you can still critical hit a lvl 100 walker 1 out of 3ish)

    Now if you have 90% critical chance.
    That means that a ranged weapon with 30% piercing has a 27% to be a critical hit.
    dylanarenaMikyMouseCBgaming1969
  • abailey362abailey362 Member Posts: 304
    edited February 2018
    testing this out. just got a crit hit on a non charge attack on a lvl 31 walker with lvl 23 5 star (no pink) abe. he is equiped with a 3% and 10% crit chance badge. weapon is lvl 26 with gold pierce
    abailey362 - TheHerdReturned - part of #THR Family



  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065

    gold pierce

    David_H79
  • Japes87Japes87 Member Posts: 1,399
    How would interrupt fall into this ?
    If I am attacking a level 26 zombie at level 23 survivor with no piercing with a 100% interrupt weapon, would I still have a 40% possibility to interrupt them?
    jimmorrison369romeo
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    edited February 2018
    @Japes87
    If you're assuming body-shot chance to be exactly 40%, then yes.
    Japes87
  • msapaevmsapaev Member Posts: 480
    @Kaz, so would you say that @dylanarena's second theory is correct?
  • dylanarenadylanarena Member Posts: 78
    Thanks, everyone! It sounds as if the community overwhelmingly agrees that Theory 2 is correct. (And @msapaev, I appreciate your hoping for @Kaz to come straight out and explicitly say so!)
    jimmorrison369msapaev
  • abailey362abailey362 Member Posts: 304
    Kaz said:

    Do you guys need my input? You have pretty much figured out the whole thing.

    And Jerry's flowchart is just brilliant, hahaha

    WellyLuga said:

    Body shots override crit chance. Once you get to a position where it's 100% chance for a body shot you will have 0% chance for a crit. The only times you'll get a crit is with charge attacks or piercing.

    And I wouldn't have explained better than this ^
    @Kaz are there any scenarios where WITHOUT piercing (or a charge attack), you get anything but a body shot once you are at enemy level > hero level + pink stars?


    also, does normal chance, not affected by enemy or survivor level, still apply to non guaranteed critical charge attacks (assault, warrior, bruiser)?
    abailey362 - TheHerdReturned - part of #THR Family



  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    Kaz said:


    And I wouldn't have explained better than this

    WellyLuga said:

    Body shots override crit chance. Once you get to a position where it's 100% chance for a body shot you will have 0% chance for a crit. The only times you'll get a crit is with charge attacks or piercing.


    Kaz are there any scenarios where WITHOUT piercing (or a charge attack), you get anything but a body shot once you are at enemy level > hero level + pink stars?

    ...

    Your other question, yes you still have critical chance as long as you don't get body-shot
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 2,975
    @Kaz and this is why melee weapons need an equivalent to piercing! Maybe call it sharpened! It can even have a lower chance to make up for melees higher health. But it's so stacked that piercing is invaluable at higher level it completely unbalances the game.
    msapaevantKaz
  • KazKaz Member Posts: 1,423
    msapaev said:

    @Kaz, so would you say that @dylanarena's second theory is correct?

    Yes, it is! :)

    Kaz said:

    Do you guys need my input? You have pretty much figured out the whole thing.

    And Jerry's flowchart is just brilliant, hahaha

    WellyLuga said:

    Body shots override crit chance. Once you get to a position where it's 100% chance for a body shot you will have 0% chance for a crit. The only times you'll get a crit is with charge attacks or piercing.

    And I wouldn't have explained better than this ^
    @Kaz are there any scenarios where WITHOUT piercing (or a charge attack), you get anything but a body shot once you are at enemy level > hero level + pink stars?

    also, does normal chance, not affected by enemy or survivor level, still apply to non guaranteed critical charge attacks (assault, warrior, bruiser)?
    The point where you get 100% body shots is when walkers are 5 levels higher than your survivors are. HOWEVER, if you have one pink start, this difference is increased by one. So for example:

    If your survivor is level 20 and walkers are level 25, it's 100% chance of body shots. BUT if it's a level 20+Pink star, than it's only 100% body shot when walkers are level 26. If 2 pink stars then body shots will only happen at walker level 27 and so on.
    Firekid said:

    @Kaz and this is why melee weapons need an equivalent to piercing! Maybe call it sharpened! It can even have a lower chance to make up for melees higher health. But it's so stacked that piercing is invaluable at higher level it completely unbalances the game.

    I hear you, man! Nothing planned for now, but cool suggestion. :)
    msapaev
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @Kaz i remember there was a vague announcement that body shots were lifted a bit for melee. Is there a chance we can get that confirmed, possibly with the number of lvls it is shifted?

    Thx much!
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    jimmorrison369
  • KazKaz Member Posts: 1,423
    Putchuco said:

    @Kaz i remember there was a vague announcement that body shots were lifted a bit for melee. Is there a chance we can get that confirmed, possibly with the number of lvls it is shifted?

    Thx much!

    I'll double check it for you tomorrow morning! But as far as I remember, ranged and melee body shots chances are exactly the same.
    Putchucoromeo
  • warlordfwarlordf Member Posts: 220
    for just a game this blows my mind but thx for this post obviously.

    i have just a few 22 survivors and only a survivor 22 with 2 pink stars which means he is 24 right? so when i face a walker level 29 i have 100% chance that its body shot therefore the critical badges i put him are 0 unless he has weapon with piercing unlock, is that correct? so thats why piercing is so important and most new players dont understand why ....:D
    jimmorrison369mik81ant
  • msapaevmsapaev Member Posts: 480
    edited February 2018
    @warlordf, you are correct.

    With Daryl as the leader, critical badges, and piercing, I still have a rare chance of critical attacks with +7 lvl walkers. According to the @Shteevie's formula here, I can only explain rare crits with a negative base chance :)
    warlordf
  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    I stand by the info in that video. Hopefully I explained well enough...and i like the NG confirmation!!!

    @Kaz @Putchuco - the body shot difference between ranged and melee was not the % chance of activation, but the damage done on a body shot. 50% for ranged, and something like 70% or 75% (i think, never can find the announcement) for melee.
    KaLijimmorrison369David_H79CBgaming1969
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @OneLessTitan there was a (slightly vague) announcement in one of the previous versions, 2.3? @Shteevie pointed us to it in a discussion once, he was surprised we never jumped on it.

    It was here: https://nextgames.helpshift.com/a/the-walking-dead-no-man-s-land/
    but I can’t find it anymore.

    BTW, the video is fantastic.
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    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • msapaevmsapaev Member Posts: 480
    edited May 2018
    Kaz said:

    The point where you get 100% body shots is when walkers are 5 levels higher than your survivors are. HOWEVER, if you have one pink start, this difference is increased by one. So for example:

    If your survivor is level 20 and walkers are level 25, it's 100% chance of body shots. BUT if it's a level 20+Pink star, than it's only 100% body shot when walkers are level 26. If 2 pink stars then body shots will only happen at walker level 27 and so on.

    @Kaz, how can you comment this video?

    Carol critically hits a 30-lvl walker:


    Her level is 24 and she has 1 pink star:


    So it seems her attack cannot be critical for a 30-lvl enemy. But it can! :# Has anything been changed since then?
  • msapaevmsapaev Member Posts: 480
    Sorry for digging out so old topic :worried:
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