What's the Chance? Takeaways from crafting 70+ badges in 1 go

As the title implies, I crafted over 70 badges yesterday after saving up on fragments (not components) for some weeks. Every badge I crafted used components and fragments of equal rarity (e.g. common fragment with common components, rare fragment with rare components, etc.). I compiled the data and calculated a few simple stats to get an idea of what NG has coded. If you want evidence, here's the link to the video:

Now, here are the numbers:
- Out of 21 badges crafted using all common fragments and components, 12 were common and 9 were uncommon (57% and 43% respectively).
- Out of 22 badges crafted using all uncommon fragments and components, 13 were common, 9 were uncommon, and 0 were rare (59%, 41%, and 0% respectively).
- Out of 26 badges crafted using all rare fragments and components, 8 were uncommon, 12 were rare, and 6 were epic (31%, 46%, and 23% respectively).
- Out of 2 badges crafted using all epic fragments and components, 1 was rare, 1 was epic, and 0 were legendary.
- 1 badge crafted using a legendary fragment and components turned out epic.

At the beginning of the video, you can see I own 4 legendary badges total. 3 came from using all legendary fragments and components, and 1 came from using an epic fragment and components. I also crafted a badge a week or two ago with a legendary fragment and components, which also turned out epic. So if you would allow me to supplement the legendary level data due to small sample size, it would look like this:

- Out of 5 badges crafted using all legendary fragments and components, 2 were epic and 3 were legendary (40% and 60% respectively).
- In total, 76 badges were crafted. 37 badges stayed at the same rarity as their corresponding fragments and components, 24 dropped in rarity, and 15 jumped in rarity (49% same, 31% dropped, and 20% jumped)

My sample size is limited, but I believe large enough to give us an idea of what NG is doing and draw some conclusions. If I had to guess the actual chances NG had programmed into the game, based on these 76 badges plus the hundreds more I've crafted:
- Common: 60% chance of a common badge, 40% chance of an uncommon badge
- Uncommon: 45% chance of a common badge, 50% chance of an uncommon badge, 5% chance of a rare badge
- Rare: 30% chance of an uncommon badge, 45% chance of a rare badge, 25% chance of an epic badge
- Epic: 45% chance of a rare badge, 50% chance of an epic badge, 5% chance of a legendary badge
- Legendary: 40% chance of an epic badge, 60% chance of a legendary badge

Now, the issues I wish to call to the attention of @Kaz and NG programmers with the hope of effecting change
- There is WAAAAYYY too much variance where crafted badges jump or drop in rarity. Ideally, using a fragment and components all of the same rarity will yield a badge of the corresponding rarity 100% of the time. I'm sure the vast majority of players would be much happier with this arrangement. If you insist on keeping variance in badge crafting, it MUST be much smaller, something like 5% chance of swinging in either direction. But again, the ideal would be 0% variance.
- The variance is not equal. It's skewed towards dropping in rarity as opposed to jumping in rarity. After seeing game makers nerf various aspects of the game such as wrestle, stun resistance, dodge, luck, etc. all in the name of balance, this obvious imbalance is both insulting and hypocritical.
- I have hundreds of components left over. The drop rates are obscenely out of balance, and this isn't the first time I've called attention to this (https://forums.nextgames.com/walkingdead/discussion/31753/it-bears-repeating-that-certain-odds-with-badges-are-terribly-unbalanced/p1). Please, fix the drop rates, because it's another insult to gamers when we get common to rare components in rewards crates, because they offer literally nothing to us, not even XP scrap potential.
- If game developers insist on variance in the rarity of crafting badges, be more transparent and show the actual percentages, like you do for other aspects of the game like dodge, sure shot, defensive stance, etc. These odds are so dramatic that they destroy trust in the game and the game makers because, despite the lack of transparency, the evidence is overwhelming. Countless gamers have observed how ridiculous the variance is. If the odds were truly fair, the developers wouldn't hesitate to include the odds. My guess is the developers won't though because they know they're purposely trying to stack the deck against gamers. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter, because evidence is evidence. But how foolish to intentionally place unnecessary road blocks in the way of paying customers.
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Comments

  • WellyLugaWellyLuga Member Posts: 1,830
    10/10 for this post. I've done enough all legendary crafts to be fairly sure that the chance of an epic is much higher than a legendary. I think your 60/40 in favour of an epic is quite generous. I've got 5 legendary badges, 2 from all legendary and 3 from all epic. I've probably done about 10 all legendary crafts so my sample size would put it closer to 80/20, maybe I'm just unlucky.
    DBonesromeotheldssdlTheSittingDuck
  • CBgaming1969CBgaming1969 Member Posts: 1,359
    My badge question is this...
    Does a Ledgedary damage 249 badge with no esculater do more damage than a common damage 249 badge with no esculater?
    Gunny_Highwaybigbeano
  • theldssdltheldssdl Member Posts: 114
    That spreadsheet is great @MadPuppy

    Who else can contribute data points to MP’s data points? Let’s try to accumulate as much data as possible on this!
  • Andy_bAndy_b Member Posts: 90
    Awesome post,great info
    romeotheldssdl
  • docfinzenburgdocfinzenburg Member Posts: 543
    my spreadsheet is at the office, when i get back on wednesday, i'll have some more numbers for you
    theldssdl
  • TheDeanTheDean Member Posts: 20
    My own results for today:

    23 common fragments, using only common components resulted in 19 common badges and 4 uncommon. That's about 17.4% of badges resulting in a higher rarity than the bits used to create them.

    23 uncommon fragments, using only uncommon components resulted in 14 common badges (60.9%), 8 uncommon (34.8%) and 1 (4.3%) rare.

    I always knew that the results were bad. In bulk they look downright terrible.

    I wouldn't even bother with crafting uncommon or common anymore, but it's all I have to spend tomatoes on these days, so converting stuff I don't use to XP is the best I can hope for.
    theldssdl
  • theldssdltheldssdl Member Posts: 114
    Thanks for the additional data @TheDean

    I’m sorry that your results were less positive though.
    TheDean
  • TheDeanTheDean Member Posts: 20
    Not your fault @theldssdl. I blame the programmers for selecting a RNG that could give such insanely bad results.
    DBones
  • dlbdlb Member Posts: 294
    Ive managed 4 all legendary sets and went 0 for 4, all ended up epic. One legendary i got from an all epic, the other was a mix of epic and legendary. My last attemp was horrendous. Leg frag, two leg comps, two epic, two times, both rare, the worst possible. Then 1 leg frag and 4 epic, rare again. Then i had a rare frad and 4 epic comps and i got a filthy uncommon. This was the start of 12 consecutive crafting attemps that gave the lowest possible outcome. Just did 4 all uncommon, 2 common, 2 uncommon, ie garbage. Then 4 all rare, 1 uncommon, 2 rare, and i actually scored an epic. Get our hopes up with a realy good idea just so they stomp on them when it falls to shit.
    theldssdl
  • docfinzenburgdocfinzenburg Member Posts: 543
    @theldssdl @MadPuppy
    here are my results from the latest 109 badges, i crafted and collected stats. Unfortunately i don't have the stats from the first 200 badges, i crafted before (including 4 legendary badges)

    Like theldssdl, every badge I crafted used components and fragments of equal rarity (e.g. common fragment with common components, rare fragment with rare components, etc.).
    theldssdl
  • TJSTJS Member Posts: 4,501
    I haven't taken statistics on my crafting but with 14 attempts with all Legendary components it's 6 Leg. and 8 Epic badges.
    My last 6 in a row have been Epic. Very frustrating!

    Just attempted two. My Valentines Disappointment. :heartbreak:

    -
    TJS  -  Member of W-S
    Nation Wars 🇦🇺 Australian Team Captain
    anthony172theldssdl
  • PapacasPapacas Member Posts: 416
    Well I stopped looking at badge results for a while now. I have around 300 badges made so far and I have not deleted a single one yet. I guess I will when I get close to the max. Be that as it may, with 300 made, I have ONE set of badges I can use, which is Negan. And I never ever use Negan so it's pointless for me. I do have a few nice legendary badges (mainly but not only for melee, of course, lol), quite some epic and lots of rares, but no active set bonus on my guys and galls. Bad luck only or passed the point of mere odds?
  • RbredtRbredt Member Posts: 70
    edited February 2018
    But from an addiction point of view, the intermittent reward will get get hooked more than a constant reward. It’s just psychology.
  • keplerkepler Member Posts: 14
    Take heart that it was probably your posting of the results that motivating this boon for the rest of us.
    theldssdl
  • shaddowalkershaddowalker Member Posts: 2
    edited February 2018
    New event that improves badge crafting?? Did I miss an update? Oh I see, improved quality of badges. Not predictable formulas for creating badges you actually want.
    CrashOut
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