Pre determined rewards.

135

Comments

  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    I do believe the crates when opened are random based on the percentage chances of each crate.

    I don't necessarily believe that gold and silver crates show up 1/3 ratio (probably closer to 60% bronze, 30% silver, 10% gold).

    I also don't believe that the odds of opening a gold or silver crate is 1/3 ratio.

    I don't believe that there is an equal chance that a bronze, silver or gold crate will appear as an after mission crate and I also don't believe there is an equal chance that a bronze, silver or gold crate will be opened in the first 3 unlocks.

    I do believe that if luck is on your side and a gold crate appears and you actually get to open it that the chances of the item being what the crate says percentage wise is accurate

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  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    Through 42 gold crates on scavenge
    1 legendary weapon
    1 legendary armor
    1 epic weapon
    1 epic component
    38 supply crates

    90.5% of my gold crates thus far have been supplies. That means that given my sample I am do for an increase in components, gold, radios,

    Will be interesting to see what I yield at the 100 mark obviously doesn't mean that the numbers are off, but at a sample size of 100 you would hope to be within what is claimed.

  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    DLich said:


    I don't believe that there is an equal chance that a bronze, silver or gold crate will appear as an after mission crate.

    I agree.

    My hypothetical situation (or actually what I thought was your implied situation) is where I only count all the times where you get 9 crates, and the screen shows you 1 golden chest.

    At that point, I believe there is a 1/3 chance it will be in the first 3 boxes.
    Namely, a 1/9 chance it will be in first, 1/8 in the second, 1/7 in the third.
    1 - 8*7*6/(7*8*9).

    I would find it strange, if the golden box would deliberately be put behind other boxes. Forcing you (even more...) to use commercials and or gold.
    TJSSCBMAromeo
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    @jimmorrison369

    I don't have my paper with me but what I am finding out across 42 gold crates (scavenge supply only) is that more often or not I am opening the gold crate more often in the 1-3 slot, followed by 7-9 slot. With the "video" slots last 4-6.

    I am interested to see what the % will be for 100 crates. Right now on the terms of what I am getting in gold crates its mind blowing 90.5% supplies 38 of 42 have been supplies.

    jimmorrison369
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554


    I would find it strange, if the golden box would deliberately be put behind other boxes. Forcing you (even more...) to use commercials and or gold.

    Since the first 3 don’t require any gold use at all it’s not necessary to be disclosed by apples stabdards. Since the second one “could” be opened by watching an ad it only leaves the 3rd set left to use gold to open them. By then you only have 1 option left (the final 3 crates) so there’s no need to give out the odds of opening the first and third set it only leaves the second set.

    When a player has exhausted their ads and must use 25 gold to unlock the second set of chances I believe the chances of getting the crate that’s gold should be displayed because the unknown option to spend gold.

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  • dlbdlb Member Posts: 299
    @DLich @Drunken I preached this same sermon and was criticized for it as well. What the naysayers fail to understand is that if a disproportionate percentage of gold boxes are assigned to the third round, only reachable with gold, then you are being screwed by a rigged system. Compile data and post your results. If yours are like mine when i did it, you will find that the first roll is least likely to open a gold box and that the 3rd roll is most likely.
    DLichStarr621
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,726
    @dlb

    Through about 50 gold crates(didn't do much grind last night) I am noticing most of the gold crates are either in the 1-3 or 7-9.

    Honestly I don't mind spending the 25 gold now that no green turds are in there.

    I did however in one crate get 4 radios last night. So about half way through and the radios seem to be on par but I am hitting supplies at about 87%...

    Hopefully tonight I can get some good grind time as I don't plan on doing challenge till I get supply done, because I don't want to be told numbers are skewed by doing missions inbetween even tho everything is predetermined.
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    Drunken said:


    Through about 50 gold crates(didn't do much grind last night) I am noticing most of the gold crates are either in the 1-3 or 7-9.

    That's the trick. 1-3 don't cost any gold. The opportunity to use gold isn't presented. In 7-9 if you spend gold you know it's the final 3 so you know you're guaranteed 100% chance to get the gold crate if it's present. You know the risk/reward.

    It's the 4-6 that cause me concern. If I'm using Gold to attempt to get a gold crate on the 2nd try, I believe the odds of getting said gold crate (or any crate in there) should be displayed.

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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    @DLich
    So you are saying it is rigged. Finally...
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554

    @DLich
    So you are saying it is rigged. Finally...

    I'm saying that...

    The first 3 unlocks don't require currency and therefore you aren't spending anything for a "gamble"
    --- In this instance there is no cost therefore no odds
    The last 3 unlocks require currency BUT you by default get the final 3 crates
    --- In this instance there is no gamble because you know the odds are 100%

    In most instances your 2nd try at the crates can be gained by watching an ad. Technically you're not spending gold on this (but you are spending time).

    The times when a player has exhausted their ads, and is presented with the chance to spend 25 gold to open 3 more crates when there is 6 more left I think the odds of opening that crate should be present as it's a form of gambling and imo would follow under the guidelines of needing to be transparent to meet apple's standards.

    If I spend 25 gold for the 2nd set of unlocks I'm going to assume I have a 50/50 chance at anything left. But if the odds are not 50/50 then those odds should be displayed, otherwise I'm using currency on something not knowing the proper odds.

    Just my $.02 anyway.

    I absolutely do not believe the odds are evenly distributed that a gold crate has a 33% chance of being opened in the first 3. I also don't believe the odds are evenly distributed that a gold crate will be presented to me at the end of a mission evenly compared to bronze or silver.

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    Drunkenjimmorrison369
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 3,109
    How do you know that your whole life isn't pre-determined? But honestly suck it up guys, basically just after the mission finishes your are allocated 9 prizes in a random order and then you get the first 3 free the next 3 for video or gold and you have to pay gold for all 9. The prizes and order they are given I believe is completely random.
    jimmorrison369SCBMA
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    So yes, If the system is rigged.
    Then gold crates are forced to have a higher chance being in the last 6 crates.
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    "Apps offering “loot boxes” or other mechanisms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose the odds of receiving each type of item to customers prior to purchase."

    Source

    If I'm using gold to "purchase" unlocks shouldn't I know the odds of getting the best crate? The odds of what is in the crate is displayed yes... But what are the odds of getting the crate?

    First 3 have no cost
    Last 3 have a cost but 100% odds
    Middle 3 should have odds displayed (therefore all should have odds displayed)

    Odds of getting Gold Crate in the first 3 is x%, Odds of getting Gold Crate in the next 3 is y%, etc.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    Firekid said:

    How do you know that your whole life isn't pre-determined? But honestly suck it up guys, basically just after the mission finishes your are allocated 9 prizes in a random order and then you get the first 3 free the next 3 for video or gold and you have to pay gold for all 9. The prizes and order they are given I believe is completely random.




    Random order LOL

    It's a pre-determined order

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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    DLich said:

    "Apps offering “loot boxes” or other mechanisms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose the odds of receiving each type of item to customers prior to purchase."

    I do wonder about this also. This won't be a problem when it is just 1/3 etc..
    Then you can just assume the gold box is 1 of 9 boxes. And the chances are equal for each box.

    But if it would be your theory, then they would be forced to disclose the chances.
    This is even more reason to think it is just equal for all boxes.
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    You can't say it's random order when the first 3 items I received in the first shot came up in the exact same order after it reconnected.

    Now understand this... When it was done reconnecting (i rebooted the app) I came back to the middle of the mission. I had to continue and re finish the mission, then I got the 9 crates and picked 3 completely different crates but the rewards that were chosen were exactly the same in the exact same order.

    Before I even got to the final screen it knew what the first pick was going to be, the second one and so forth. The rewards were the same. I opened the gold one in the same order both times.

    That is the appearance of random, but not random.

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  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    Let me put it this way, The way they present it is 9 boxes with equal chances of having stuff.
    Then there is no need to disclose, it is just 1/9 per box. Obvious, apparent
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    BTW, you can still change traits on the weapon :wink:
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    DLich said:

    You can't say it's random order when the first 3 items I received in the first shot came up in the exact same order after it reconnected.
    That is the appearance of random, but not random.

    bun said:

    The random is server side, for security reasons. What we get client side is just like watching a movie of a random event. You can watch it as often as you want but the ending is always the same.

  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554


    But if it would be your theory, then they would be forced to disclose the chances.
    This is even more reason to think it is just equal for all boxes.

    I think the reason they aren't forced to disclose this is because Apple says developers have to tell players the odds of receiving each type prior to purchase but in this instance it's not exactly a "loot box" but more of a "chance" at a loot box. As I mentioned before, I believe the 2nd set of unlocks should have the odds displayed because the first and third either cost nothing or are guaranteed to get it. I just feel like the 2nd set (and therefore all sets) should have the odds.

    it's beating a dead horse yes because NG will divulge what they are forced to what they want and it is what it is.

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  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 3,109
    @DLich yes it was random before it got "locked in" the reason this happens has been explained several times in this thread. You must have a great connection if this is the first time you've noticed this!
    SCBMA
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    DLich said:

    As I mentioned before, I believe the 2nd set of unlocks should have the odds displayed because the first and third either cost nothing or are guaranteed to get it. I just feel like the 2nd set (and therefore all sets) should have the odds.

    Well, if your hypothetical situation is true (I don't think so, but can't proof otherwise either). Then I fully agree they should do that.
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    Firekid said:

    @DLich yes it was random before it got "locked in" the reason this happens has been explained several times in this thread. You must have a great connection if this is the first time you've noticed this!

    So you're saying that it was "locked in" when I selected the 3 before it reconnected?... When I rebooted it went back to the middle of the mission. What if I chose to exit the mission instead of continue to play it and successfully complete it. Would I then get those same 3 rewards on the next mission i play?

    If the server "locked" in my rewards for that mission, yet after reconnection I didn't complete that mission are those same rewards "locked" in the next mission I play?

    I'm confused with the "since NG hasn't told us and Apple says they have to then it must be even chance". Developers are forced to disclose the odds of attaining a prize on the purchase of a loot box. Radio calls are loot boxes. Crates in the TG shop are loot boxes. Opening a after mission crate is a loot box.

    What I'm questioning is the chance to open the loot box. Watching an ad doesn't guarantee anything other than income to the developer and maybe some small xp for myself. I want to know the odds of me getting a gold crate when I spend 25 gold to unlock 3 more crates when there is 6 left.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    DLich said:


    I want to know the odds of me getting a gold crate when I spend 25 gold to unlock 3 more crates when there is 6 left.

    It's a moot point though. Things on the forum announced by NG are incorrect compared to what help desk says so even if someone from NG came out and said "the odds are even; 1/9 each or 1/3 each unlock" I'm suspect able to believing it. Until it's in game I doubt I'll believe anything anyone says (other than data that shows more time than not the gold crate is not in the first 3 lol.

    @Firekid I always only play on wifi. We had lost internet for a few hours and I was using LTE svcs which aren't the best.

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  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 3,109
    @DLich not sure when the prizes get locked in, that's a. Good question. I imagine it'll be at mission start possibly during the loading screen. So if you restarted a new mission a new set of rewards would be randomly selected. But that's just a guess.
    DLich
  • MadPuppyMadPuppy Member Posts: 2,831
    What if we collect a ton of screenshots of all nine crates opened. They must be all over the forum, and we'll be getting many more from now on anyway. Let's say we aim to collect at least 1.000 of such instances, which would total op to 9.000 crates. That would be a pretty big sample size.

    I'd be curious to find oud what the odds of gold dropping on turn 1/2/3 would be then.

    But not sure how to approach the odds calculation there, since with one gold ticket it's pretty straight forwards, but with three it's a different situation.

    I am thinking along the same lines with DLich's reasoning with the interpretation of the app store rules. Turn one is free, so loot table does not apply, since it's free. Opening for an ad might be, but it's debatable. But where you need to spend 50 gold to get the rest because you've run out of ads, that could constitute a purchase I think. Seems similar to me like buying a component crate, or a gold or epic or legendary box from the tg store. But in this case what we want to know is not the probability of the contents of the gold ticket, but the probability of getting that ticket at all. I know I'm curious. :)
    DLichjimmorrison369
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,065
    Just screenshot of all 9 opened isn't enough, you'd need order of opening.

    Chance calc is not (too) hard, i could do that.
    MadPuppy
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,554
    @MadPuppy



    I think we did!!!


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  • flyingcowkingflyingcowking Member Posts: 410
    MadPuppy said:

    Only in a single decimal world.

    HEY! There are parts of math I like and parts I don't like.

    Flatulent person
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