Pre determined rewards.

124

Comments

  • MadPuppyMadPuppy Moderator Posts: 2,829
    Dangit @jimmorrison369 good call.
    So three screens for each opening.
    But only needed if there's still gold ones to open, since if they turned up in the first chance, we know enough for that round. Right?
    jimmorrison369DLich
  • GindyGindy Member Posts: 703
    edited March 2018
    So, while I do think running this analysis in the way proposed to determine the rate of "what are my odds to open a gold crate per-turn when a gold crate is present", I don't believe it is a fair analysis as a whole. It sounds eerily similiar to the "why do I get crappy traits on my rare/epic/leg weapon all the time?!" conundrum from a bit back.

    Hear me out, @DLich :)

    Not analyzing all pulls -- gold or not -- leaves everyone vulnerable to an (indirectly) biased result and loss of a slew of possible learnings,.Only when you take all data into account can you truly get a full result. Two sample groups should be divided: one only opens three crates and never more -- no free videos, nothing -- nee, just three! That's your baseline. The second group should open all 9 crates each time, every time.

    Now! we can truly compare the data:
    • Do *opened* gold-crate percentages align in both groups or does the 9-crate group have a higher % of gold crates *opened*?
      • Equal? Then you're just watching videos and spending gold to expedite what you'd already get. You're not paying for odds/chance, you're just investing in time/grind savings.There are no odds for that, case closed.
      • Disparate? Now we have something to investigate! P2P has the advantage here, odds and a whole lot more now come into valuable analysis.
    Only from that baseline can you then identify downstream effects regarding funnel-stage crate opening and what actually constitutes being a loot-box risk which would have tangible odds.
    SCBMADLich
  • BoukephalosBoukephalos Member Posts: 263
    edited March 2018

    Just screenshot of all 9 opened isn't enough, you'd need order of opening.



    .

    And you have to trust the people posting the shots to be both accurate and honest, not sending in erroneous data either by accident or malice. Frankly, I'd trust NG more on that than some of the paranoid and people who'd be contributing to the data set. This thread alone shows lack of the necessary rigour and clarity.

    ShadowaceAzSCBMAGindy
  • GindyGindy Member Posts: 703

    Just screenshot of all 9 opened isn't enough, you'd need order of opening.
    .

    And you have to trust the people posting the shots to be both accurate and honest, not sending in erroneous data either by accident or malice. Frankly, I'd trust NG more on that than some of the paranoid and people who'd be contributing to the data set. This thread alone shows lack of the necessary rigour and clarity.

    Agree, but disagree.

    There are plenty of people on this forum and other sources who have the playtime and could provide data in a validated form. The game format allows for a concise and measurable format (the challenge round metrics) and honest peer respect to commit (or be ok with disqualification in data quality) regarding data input.

    Ask for one full challenge commitment, all results consistent and documented, validated in challenge rounds::crate results posted. Yah, it's fallible, but it's as close as we can get to accountability in a virtual world, and the data could ensure as best that participants could fulfill the ask.

    The forum has done more with less.
    DLich
  • BoukephalosBoukephalos Member Posts: 263
    Building lists of survivor base stats or gear stats is one thing; those can be verified independently and most people simply have an interest in finding out those facts. This is something that
    • Requires care and rigour
    • Some people are very emotional about already
    • Is in the realm of probability and statistics which are counter-intuitive for most people, who tend to be both unaware and defensive of their biases
    • Is unlikely to convince anybody who's already made the decision that NG are cheating them, if the results show differently.
    Trying to build probabilistic data like this, while accounting for things like unconscious habits, selection bias (people who always buy the final three may not care about these statistics and not contribute, people who think they're being cheated may be more likely to take part), inevitable errors etc is not easy. What methods will you use?

    I've just looked at DLich's thread and the basic premise is flawed.
    aaxt555DLich
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    @Boukephalos

    I was trying to do 100 gold crates in scavenge. I didn't get there but I did manage to do 50 gold crates. I will say the odds are favored more in the 1-3 and the 7-9. This is a small sample size. One thing that got me tho was I had a 87% chance of it being Supplies.

    I will attempt to do another 100 gold scavenge crates again might have to lead the guild for a week. I don't want the stats to be skewed because I was mix matching scavenge and challenge, by people who don't believe it is all predetermined. I personally believe that my rewards in scavenge have no impact in challenge and vice versa.
  • MadPuppyMadPuppy Moderator Posts: 2,829
    The last 24 hours I've had a grand total of 1 (one, uno, a single instance) of a gold after mission crate. Woohoo. It was in place three, cost me 25 gold and had supplies (could have something to do with the fact that it was a supplies scavenge mission).

    :p
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    @MadPuppy

    75% of gold crates should be supplies there. Anything dramatically under or over is suspected in a larger scale, question is what defines larger scale?
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    edited March 2018
    It’s still early but in the challenge so far Ive gotten 3 gold crates presented in 13 missions (had to replay one) and all 3 times it was in the 3rd set.







    Edit. Fourth one. Third set yet again.



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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    To those who think this is just bad rng or bad luck... This happens way way to often. out of 4 gold crates all 4 were in the final set (requiring gold to unlock). I've now maxed out my ads for a little while, got nothing from it (gold crate wise).

    If it's equally distributed then I would expect at least 1 of the 4 to be in the 1st set and 1 to be in the 2nd set... But instead 4 out of 4 were in the 3rd set. This entire challenge, I will take screen shots of any and every gold crate position I receive... I trust my data to be accurate.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    For transparency and informational I wasted 25 gold to try and unlock the gold crate. It was successful (although I’m still at a loss lol)



    Second set (but cost me 25 gold)




    Out of 5 gold crates, all 5 required the use of gold to unlock them.

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  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    @dlich you should be writing all these down and documenting like I am on scavenge missions

    I am attempting to find out in LINE if I run challenge if that will skew Scavenge crates or not. Small sample size doesn't work, but a sample of 100 does give perspective obviously you would need a much wider base say 10K?

  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    Maybe @kaz can answer the question
  • MadPuppyMadPuppy Moderator Posts: 2,829
    Collect 1.000+ data point, with every gold crate instance, not skipping a single one, i.e. including the ones with a hit-in-one.

    The way I personally feel about these chance is that they seem about equal to me over all. I get them in try one or two quite often.
    Drunkenjimmorrison369
  • nadecirnadecir Member Posts: 242
    If the chances of getting any one individual loot box are equal (1 out of 9) when they are initially presented, NG should just say so.

    If the chances of getting any one individual loot box are not equal, then players should be told so in no uncertain terms. Most, if not all, people would say the software would be deceptive in this case. And quite likely, it's against the intent of the Apple Developer Guidelines concerning loot box odds disclosure. As a public company, I would be very concerned about ANY deception associated with loot box odds disclosure. Any employee at NG that is aware of any deception associated with loot box odds disclosure is at risk.

    NG - @Kaz and @Shteevie you are requested to speak up here. Stonewalling is not the proper way to handle this situation. To refuse to answer this simple question here is evidence in any future action. And to continue to stonewall here at the very least reflects poorly on the entire company, and could lead to even more serious ramifications.

    There are times to call out companies for the way they conduct business, and this is one of them. NG silence here is NOT an ethical way to conduct business.
    DrunkenDLichpaintbeast
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    edited March 2018
    @nadecir

    NG is very unlikely to respond here. As a public trading company they have a CEO and board. I do not know where they rank amongst the leaders at the company. It appears Kaz is a spokes person who part of his job is to interact. Stevie has been really good at interacting with players here and on other forms of communication.

    I have asked the question regarding a study for my own purpose of gold crates in scavenge vs challenge. I know I will not get a response, just like NG will not answer if (we know they are) predetermined crates. I have a sneaky feeling that radio calls are predetermined meaning if I make 5 calls not connected then reconnect the 5 calls would be same ditto with badges. To me that is a greater concern. It means the system isn't random and that the odds are skewed. Meaning that not everyone has a 50/50 chance of crafting legendary with all legendary.

    I am about 50 gold crates into scavenge and will continue to monitor what position I open then, what they are and then compare that to % claims of what should drop. Right now 86% have been Supplies. That's little high based on 75% should be supplies. Obviously the more I document this the more I should see a balance. In addition rough guess as I don't have paper work infront of me I would say 40/20/40 in terms of when I open the golden crate.

    I feel this is important information for players to have, but doubt NG will disclose or discuss this unless they are forced to. In this post I made mention of BBB which doesn't apply to NG as they are not a North American company, but if Finland has something similar you could write them and NG would have to respond. If you word it correctly then you get the fundamentals the company uses. I don't think anything is too off or concerning for Apply to force a hand. So at end of day we are left speculating.

    Again I would love to know if Badges/Radio calls are all predetermined. Are my next 5 calls gonna be the same regardless of when, how, or order I choose them?


    *disclaimer* most of my questions have been answered. I don't want to re edit response, because has weight and honestly don't feel bothered to rethinking it all out. Maybe we get an answer here on forum as well :)
  • nadecirnadecir Member Posts: 242
    @Drunken it's one thing for a company to not disclose something. It's quite another to be deceptive in their practices.

    It's acceptable to me that the software makes a random selection for you before the user interaction. As long as the odds that are displayed are the chances that the software uses in its algorithms, that's acceptable to me.

    Displaying nine loot boxes and letting a user pick three gives the appearance of equal chances. If it the chances of selecting any one individual loot box are not equal, the vast majority of people would call that deceptive.

    Apple and regulatory action by some governments have increased scrutiny of virtual gambling in games. This is going to hold gaming companies to a higher standard, whether they like it or not.
    Drunken
  • KazKaz Member Posts: 1,423
    Woah!

    To be honest, I wasn't following this thread at all as it seemed inoffensive, haha.

    But anyway, don't need to worry and there's no need to activate the C.S.I. team too. The rewards you collect from the crates are random, but they are "rolled" before you actually tap on a crate. This is, as someone have said in this thread already, mainly to prevent exploits/cheating, but also, to avoid situations where you get some cool stuff > game gets disconnected > and then you lose that reward.

    The same happens to phone calls as Drunken asked in the post above.

    At which exactly point the rewards are randomized, then I have no idea, but I can guarantee that they are random for everyone and they are not based on your actions, gold spending, money spending or any other theories presented here. But if DLich wants to keep spending gold to find it out, we wouldn't complain. :x

    And still related, but I think it wasn't mentioned here. The numbers you see on the drop-rate table are not number we have manually added there. They are based on the same info the game uses to randomize items. In other words, if we change something in the game, you'll see it immediately on that table.

    Hope this information is helpful and can clarify things up from now on! (:
    DLichjimmorrison369
  • DrunkenDrunken Member Posts: 1,081
    edited March 2018
    Kaz said:

    Woah!


    The same happens to phone calls as Drunken asked in the post above.

    ! (:

    Err wrong. But its okay we know that the call is predetermined before I tap it. That's been admitted and proven just like the crates. But more in question how far predetermined is it @Kaz? Radio calls are predetermined just for the same reason crates are, but we do not know and would like to know how far in advance they are predetermined.



  • nadecirnadecir Member Posts: 242
    @Kaz Your reply didn't answer one of our main questions here. Random is one thing, but that does not mean the chances are equal. When a player is presented with 9 or 6 or 3 loot boxes to select from, are there equal chances of selecting any one of those loot boxes?
    TJS
  • RbredtRbredt Member Posts: 70
    Also to feed the frenzy, it also appears that I get the option to open 2 gold and 2 silver crates on the mission after I run out of videos to watch. But they NEVER open on the first 3 crates.
  • KazKaz Member Posts: 1,423
    Drunken said:

    Kaz said:

    Woah!


    The same happens to phone calls as Drunken asked in the post above.

    ! (:

    Err wrong. But its okay we know that the call is predetermined before I tap it. That's been admitted and proven just like the crates. But more in question how far predetermined is it @Kaz? Radio calls are predetermined just for the same reason crates are, but we do not know and would like to know how far in advance they are predetermined.

    It’s determined before the mission boxes are on the screen, so right after the mission ends. For the radios, it is determined as soon as you get to your camp.
    nadecir said:

    @Kaz Your reply didn't answer one of our main questions here. Random is one thing, but that does not mean the chances are equal. When a player is presented with 9 or 6 or 3 loot boxes to select from, are there equal chances of selecting any one of those loot boxes?

    Yes, the rewards are evenly distributed throughout the crates. So in a situation where you have 1 Gold, 2 Silver and 6 Normal Crates, the chances are 1/9 (~11%) - 2/9 (~22%) and 6/9 (~66%).
    DLichTJS
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    edited March 2018
    So I ran a ton of missions and took screen shots of all the ones that contained a gold crate as a reward. I was pretty shocked.

    11 times I opened the gold crate in the first 3.
    6 times I opened the gold crate in the second 3.
    7 times I opened the gold crate in the third 3.

    There were 2 times where 2 gold crates were present. On both occasions I opened one gold crate in the first 3 and the second gold crate in the second 3.

    I had started out with the first 5 of 5 being in the third three. Since then, in 19 more tries it appeared in the third 3 only two other times.

    In a long enough timeline it does even out. I won’t bore you with the screen shots, and I understand 23 is a small sample size but it’s enough for me to disregard my previous conspiracy theory.

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  • OneLessTitanOneLessTitan Member Posts: 1,273
    Sorry if this stuff has been mentioned, but seeing where this thread has gone at the end after reading the first few posts a few days ago, i have a few things to mention that are probably completely useless...

    Not that it really matters, but I was under the impression crate rewards were created when you start the mission...

    The Traits aren't predetermined (at least on gear, not sure about survivors from radio calls)...this has been shown in the past, and is shown in dlichs images...also happened to me today during a disconnect in the Distance Gear rewards.

    As for "where the gold boxes are located", I ran my data from my game logs for about 3-4 months tracking every crate starting about 2 years ago from 100s of Gold Crates (not a big sample, but i had at least 400 gold crates), but didn't always get to unlock 6 crates to find out where they actually were. But, of my decent sample size, it was pretty much 33% were found in the first 3 crates. Of the times I was actually able to open 6 crates (when the gold box wasn't in the first 3), they were pretty much split evenly, leading me to extrapolate that they were split about 33% each time...

    This makes perfect sense as I believe each crate is "rolled" basically independently (minus the fact that you can only have 6 "non bronze" crates in a non jackpot mission. So, each crate is determined to be Bronze/Silver/Gold (Gold = 3% of crates, Silver = 15-17%, Bronze = the rest), then the contents of the crates are determined.

    All that being said, I have had the same feeling as @DLich recently...I swear that the majority of the "crap" gold crates (basically RSL 22 and below, or RSL 21 a couple weeks ago) were in the first 3 or 6, but most of the potentially "good" Gold Crates (RSL 23/24+) were always in the last 3. Purely speculative thoughts with no actual data...
    DLich
  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    @OneLessTitan in my experience of 23 gold crates it seemed most of the early missions it was in the final 3.

    I’ll further analyze the numbers but I know I was 5 out of 5 for the first 5 being in the third set. I had more appear earlier later in the challenge.

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    I officially withdraw my “the gold position is rigged” theory.

    Rewards are pre determined. But in all honesty it does seem like it’s about 33% each time

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  • MattOfEarthMattOfEarth Member Posts: 618
    > @Boukephalos said:
    Having control or not changes the odds not one bit. Control, in a situation where no skill is involved and nothing you do can change the odds, is an illusion.
    >
    >
    Just a shout out to an awesome post! It’s like talking to Neo or Morpheus. Watch out for those Freemen Agents! :-P
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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    edited March 2018
    Nothing to see here

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  • DLichDLich Member Posts: 5,526
    Nothing to see here.

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    romeo
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