Badge crafting odds - and what we should take away from it

Putchuco · February 2018

I have put together a hopefully comprehensive overview of the most significant badge crafting odds:

(UPDATED)

The very first thing that might catch your eye:
- if you use anything less than a full set of Leg components in hopes of getting a legendary badge,
your chances drop SIGNIFICANTLY!
- crafting with lower level fragments, but mid-level components might help boosting your chances.

Anything else that jumps out at you?

Thx to all who have contributed to the data!

EDIT: fixed a small mistake on Com/R/R/R/R chances

iamedge · February 2018

All legendary pieces give 50% chance of legendary badge? I don't agree at all with that. I've done so probably 10 times and have 100% epic rate

Putchuco · February 2018

@iamedge I hear ya, but unfortunately those are the odds as listed in the game

MadPuppy · February 2018

Just because a die has a one in six chance of rolling a 4 doesn't mean that every sixth roll is a 4. It may take a million rolls to actually achieve an average that closely matches the methematical probability.

It sux when unlucky but rocks if you roll a couple fours in a row.

Fill in crafting terms or gear traits...

iamedge · February 2018

Lol wow. NG never loses a coin flip then.

Putchuco · February 2018

The bank always wins

msapaev · February 2018

the first row makes me cry...

Putchuco · February 2018

And how many times have we used an epic component thinking 'ah, it won't be that much worse'....

Guess what, it cuts the chances for a leg badge in half

Kick_ass · February 2018

@Putchuco really helpful. I just mixed my components last night and got junk. Thanks

WellyLuga · February 2018

I'm so glad I've seen that the odds drop so much for using one epic component with a set of legendary. I'll never be doing that again! I assumed that the odds were the same since the rarity range was the same. Now I know why all of them came out epic!

Japes87 · February 2018

Hey @Putchuco thank you for putting this together man . Very helpful for crafting and makes me glad I have never mixed rarities when crafting

DrUnpleasant · February 2018

I see absolutely no justification why crafting chances should get worse the higher you go up the ranks.

Even if all 5* is 50% (which, I concur has certainly not been my experience, or that of my guildies before the recent event) then why should that be lower than the Epic chance for all Epic components, or Rare for all Rare? The difficulty is already built into the drop rate ffs!

If anything, Legendary should have a higher % chance because there's no chance of a higher tier reward.

Putchuco · March 2018

Here's a quick overview of how badge crafting odds (per in-game %) compares to the first Badge Crafting Event on 19feb.

- Left Side: possible combinations of components (skipped some useless combos like Leg Frag + UnC components)
- Middle: Crafting odds per in-game info
- Right: observed odds during event

Note:
- some crafting numbers are too low to draw any conclusions from them, ie anything less than 10x crafts is not very telling (# Crafts in Red)
- Observed results during the event that were the same as the predicted numbers are marked in grey, better than predicted (ie increased for event) are marked in green. Light green: small increase, dark green: large increase

Putchuco · April 2018

Here are the current event probabilities in comparison to the standard chances and the observed results from the last event.

Hope this helps a bit

ShadowaceAz · April 2018

So has the event officially begun?

Putchuco · April 2018

Yes, it has, i can see the rates and results in-game.

ShadowaceAz · April 2018

Do you wish to know our inputs and results?

Putchuco · April 2018

ShadowaceAz said:
Do you wish to know our inputs and results?

Yes, that would be great!
Would you happen to have them in a spreadsheet format?

Scowley · April 2018

> @Putchuco said:
> Yes, it has, i can see the rates and results in-game.

@Kaz Did I dream it or could we see the chances before? I only ask as I cannot find them anymore.

OneLessTitan · April 2018

Sorry for no spreadsheet format @Putchuco , but here's what I've crafted thus far:
All LEG: 7 LEG, 2 Epic
ALL EPIC: 8 Rare, 27 Epic, 1 LEG
3* Frag, Epic ING: 16 Rare, 12 Epic, 1 Leg
All Rare: 4 Uncommon, 15 Rare, 5 Epic
2* Frag, Rare ING: 5 Common, 13 Uncommon, 15 Rare, 9 Epic

thisdoesfine · April 2018

@Putchuco here's my initial craft for today's event

RufusRocks14 · April 2018

Wow. thanks.

Any way the dev's can make is so we can sell junk 1* parts, or combine them to higher *'s ?

Nick37 · April 2018

Top row should read : epic 90% Legendary 10%

I have crafted exactly 10 all legendary components and got 9 epic badges

CBgaming1969 · April 2018

Not a s single legendary badge this time:(* a few epics and some rare most uncommon and common...

Lot better luck last event....

The_Jer · April 2018

While I did not capture the image, I got a leg badge from all uncommon compnents/fragment. I think I was too shocked!

1Ris · April 2018

@The_Jer and to that I’d have to say you are absolutely “special” since the highest rarity with all uncommon is epic ... lucky you tho

Scowley · April 2018

> @Scowley said:
> > @Putchuco said:
> > Yes, it has, i can see the rates and results in-game.
>
> @Kaz Did I dream it or could we see the chances before? I only ask as I cannot find them anymore.

Ah 1Ris post above shows the info button I was thinking about. I didn't remember that I had to have the fragment and components added before it would appear. Panic over

The_Jer · April 2018

My bad, must of had one of the items at higher level. Kind of blends together at some point. Though they were all uncommon cause I was burning thru the lower level stuff.

Mabiki · April 2018

I saved up all my common and uncommon components after the last time they ran this event, though I continued to craft rare and above.

I was able to make 56 badges from the ones I saved, including an epic or two and a handful of rares. I also replaced all the common badges in my inventory with uncommon or better (excluding the ones that are currently equipped).

I'm loving this event. While I didn't make any giant leaps, I definitely improved my overall badge setup.

Putchuco · April 2018

If someone wants to send me a list of the components they used with the badge trait they received, I would let them in on any findings of ‚crafting recipes‘

ShadowaceAz · April 2018

Craft # Fragment Component Component Component Component Result
1 Common Common Common Common Common Common Damage +
2 Common Common Common Common Common Rare Health +422
3 Common Common Common Common Common Rare DR +8%
4 Common Common Common Common Common Uncommon Health +276
5 Common Common Common Common Common Uncommon DR +5%
6 Common Common Common Common Common Common Damage +82
7 Common Common Common Common Common Common Health +5%
8 Common Common Common Common Common Common Health +5%
9 Common Common Common Common Common Common Health +165
10 Common Common Common Common Common Common CD +128
11 Common Common Common Common Common Uncommon Health +297
12 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +116
13 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon CC +6%
14 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +165
15 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +6%
16 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +5%
17 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Rare CC +9%
18 Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +5%
19 Uncommon Common Common Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Health +8%
20 Uncommon Common Common Common Common Uncommon Dam +137
21 Uncommon Common Common Uncommon Uncommon Uncommon Dam +113
22 Uncommon Common Common Uncommon Uncommon Rare CD +502
23 Uncommon Common Common Uncommon Uncommon Common CD +5%
24 Uncommon Common Common Uncommon Uncommon Rare Dam +12%
25 Rare Rare Rare Rare Rare Uncommon Dam +6%

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Badge crafting odds - and what we should take away from it

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