Radio Drop Rates and what do we take away? (NEW: 15x double hero-token call)

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Comments

  • mik81mik81 Member Posts: 360
    Good job guys! Can we please have this as a sticky post??

    @Kaz
  • dylanarenadylanarena Member Posts: 78
    @msapaev, one way to think about it is that for 1000 phones spent on 15-phone calls (which doesn't really work out right—you'd want 1005 phones to have 67 calls and no leftovers), you could expect 34.5 heroes of all types. But we know the stated probabilities of each category of hero:

    Epic: 0.2%
    Rare: 2.2%
    Uncommon: 2.4%
    Common: 5.1%

    TOTAL HERO PROB: 9.9%—but probably actually 10% exactly, given that the stated probability for survivors is 90% (i.e., these probabilities are probably rounded down a bit in some places). If we assume that 10% of cards will be heroes, we could say that the above probabilities could be multiplied by 10 to get the proportion of heroes that are that category. For example, if 10% of all cards are heroes and 5.1% of all cards are common heroes, then 51% of hero tokens will be for common heroes.

    So if 1000 phones yields 34.5 hero tokens, it'll break down as follows:

    Epic: 34.5 * .02 = 0.69 tokens
    Rare: 34.5 * .22 = 7.59 tokens
    Uncommon: 34.5 * .24 = 8.28 tokens
    Common: 34.5 * .51 = 17.595 tokens

    And you can confirm that 0.69 + 7.59 + 8.28 + 17.595 = 34.15 tokens (not quite 34.5 because of the rounding down of probabilities that I mentioned above, which made the stated probabilities not quite sum to 10%).

    If you want to get really fussy, you can then slice each category by the number of individual heroes in that category. E.g., for Epic, you've got Michonne and Carl, so for 1000 phones you're looking at roughly 0.69/2 = .345 Carl tokens and .345 Michonne tokens. (Ouch.)


    msapaev
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @dylanarena and it gets even worse ...
    Would you take 128 Negan token over 32 Sasha, 256 Eugene over 128 Abraham etc etc
    The priority list alone would take any sane person to the loony bin ;)

    And yes, that’s why we drew the line at keeping the heroes all bundled. I separated them once for the 20x special hero call. Added the % for Carol being a Rare hero to the special hero number, it changed so little I felt comfortable dropping it.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
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  • TransmuteJunTransmuteJun Member Posts: 2,168
    What i find most interesting about this is that with all of the data available, our original conclusions from way back when are still valid:

    - 15 radio call is the best call (in terms of tokens per radio)
    - Friends shouldn't let friends make 10 radio calls
    Putchucoromeo
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    @TransmuteJun that was exactly my initial motivation to look into these numbers.

    The 40x hero fest call might actually top the 15x call ;)
    Even if you dont like/need those heroes.
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    contact us via email at [email protected]
  • TransmuteJunTransmuteJun Member Posts: 2,168
    Putchuco said:

    @TransmuteJun that was exactly my initial motivation to look into these numbers.



    The 40x hero fest call might actually top the 15x call ;)

    Even if you dont like/need those heroes.

    I'm doubtful about the 40 hero call unless you are interested in ALL of the featured heroes.

    But for sure the 'special' 15 radio call with increased chances and double tokens for a specific hero is the best, as long as you are interested in that hero.
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    edited March 2018
    I was doubtful on the 40x call also, but the preliminary numbers show that the average hero + survivor token return is even better than the 15x call, no matter the special heroes.
    Again, the deviation is the big hit, so we can still see a lot of all rare returns.
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    romeo
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Updated with 15x double hero-token call and 40x call (last with results from @jimmorrison369 and @dylanarena )
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    romeoTJS
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Updated first post with corrected overview, there was a nasty calculation error in there.
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    TJS
  • TJSTJS Member Posts: 4,501
    What about this latest 4×4 Hero Fest Call ? Having 4 spins is obviously going to put it better than the usual 40 call, I just wonder how much better.
    -
    TJS  -  Member of W-S
    Nation Wars 🇦🇺 Australian Team Captain
  • PutchucoPutchuco Member Posts: 1,289
    Agree @TJS , would be great to know, but the calculations behind this are a bit lengthy. We might just have to simulate it this time.
    Callout to my buddies @jimmorrison369 and @dylanarena
    If you would like to join a drama-free and fun group of enthusiasts,
    contact us via email at [email protected]
    TJS
  • Starr621Starr621 Member Posts: 108
    I have to admit this is very impressive work done by you all! As someone with a Master's Degree in Statistics, I am very impressed and I would definitely love to help you guys with your calculations. Unfortunately, I'm having a lot of other things going on in life right now so I would be very limited to help for the time being but I would definitely like to keep in touch!
    Putchuco
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