Burning 8000 Gold! INSANE Live Reaction on Rare Component Crate!


  • bladgierbladgier Member Posts: 2,104
    The man is back! Welcome ๐Ÿ˜€

    Good luck with crafting ๐Ÿคž
  • PigBenisPigBenis Member Posts: 1,119
    @Pain_Walker are you happy with your results? After doing the math, this is what you SHOULD have expected to get and what you DID get (removing the 8 guaranteed legendary pieces).

    35 random pieces per crate and 4 crates total is 35 x 4 = 140 total pieces (plus the 8 guaranteed legendary)

    The chances of obtaining a piece from each rarity level is as follows:

    Legendary 5%
    Epic: 15%
    Rare: 32%
    Uncommon: 48%

    Therefore, anyone who purchased 4 crates would expect to get the following for each rarity level:

    Legendary 5% x 140 = 7 legendary pieces (You had 6, so under the expected outcome)
    Epic: 15% x 140 = 21 epic pieces (You had 16..WAY UNDER the expected outcome by nearly 25%!)
    Rare: 32% x 140 = 44.8 rare pieces (You had 51, which was within the standard deviation, but still too many)
    Uncommon: 48% x 140 = 67.2 uncommon pieces (You had 67, right on average)

    In reality, you gave up 1 legendary and 5 epics to get 6 rare pieces. You had below average numbers for the best 2 components rarities. I consider these results to be less than average. I opened 2 crates myself and you can see the results in another thread, but mine were not good either (less than average).

    Black Labs Matter.
  • bladgierbladgier Member Posts: 2,104
    @PigBenis you're right 100%.

    Point is, it could end up being much worse right?

    And in order to get and "average, expected" outcome you'd have to open a 100 of those chests.
  • PigBenisPigBenis Member Posts: 1,119
    With respect, the Expected Outcome can be calculated for any sample size. Yes, it's true that the larger the sample size, the more representative the samples will be of the population. But I see so many sub average crates, including my own 2 I purchase, that I'm wondering where the good ones are. His crates 1 and 3 were trash and his crate 4 was exactly average. His 3rd was very good for legendary, but lacking in epic...overall way above average on that one though.

    I guess one of my points is that the title of the thread is extremely misleading, especially to individuals that might be considering purchasing these crates. If sub average crate openings is "INSANE", then yes, it was rather insane. Hopefully they looked at the results and did the math to come up with the correct conclusion though before purchasing. I know I learned my lesson and won't be buying any of them in the near future.
    Black Labs Matter.
  • PigBenisPigBenis Member Posts: 1,119
    I'm not hating on this video or him just to clarify. Sure the title was misleading, but to me it was misleading because of the results, which I showed were less than average with the supporting math. The video was something to do for a few minutes and it kept me entertained while I wait to watch another ad video to hopefully get more gas for Distance tomorrow.

    I just don't want NG to "get away with" these sub average crates time after time...who got the good ones?
    Black Labs Matter.
  • bladgierbladgier Member Posts: 2,104
    Not saying you did hate. It might have sounded like it but that wasn't my intention.

    Consider this as a small story of my experience with this person.
  • Pain WalkerPain Walker Content Creator Posts: 2,485
    @PigBenis I never looked at it from the math perspective. It does make sense when I think about it but as @bladgier said I was referring to me reacting to the components I get. Usually you get less components and it isn't 25% cheaper so I guess these were good results for the price you had to pay.

    @bladgier Regarding leaving NML video... Sometimes its 1st of April and now its not... :)

    "Meet pain walker in person, you like his videos. Then you start recording videos in an underground garage... ":D

    RESULTS: Bladgier videos ;)
  • bladgierbladgier Member Posts: 2,104

    1. It wasn't 1st April when u made that video
    2. I never said I liked your videos
    3. My garage isn't underground


    Jk love u โค๏ธ๐Ÿ˜
    Pain Walker
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