# Jackpot odds- am I not understanding?

Raven2318
Member Posts:

**221**
OK, I will be the first to admit math is not my strongest suit. However, the odds of getting an all silver jackpot are stated as 15%, and the odds of all gold as 5%. I have run approximately 84 challenge missions during this event, and had two gold jackpots and four silver. It would seem the odds are not in my favour, or maybe I am misunderstanding the probabilities?

2

## Comments

559So the odds suck for everybody lol

3,442130> OK, I will be the first to admit math is not my strongest suit. However, the odds of getting an all silver jackpot are stated as 15%, and the odds of all gold as 5%. I have run approximately 84 challenge missions during this event, and had two gold jackpots and four silver. It would seem the odds are not in my favour, or maybe I am misunderstanding the probabilities?

But there's only a 20% chance of that lol

1,096638But hey

XP...

299271,314Since the probability of getting a gold or silver jackpot completing one mission is 2/10, there is no guarantee you will ever get either no matter how many times you play (getting either jackpot the first time does not affect the probability of getting a jackpot the next time, that is the events are independent). Thus every time you complete a mission the probability of a jackpot is 2/10 and you can never be sure that you will win. You can, however, determine the number of missions you would need to play to come within some acceptable limit of certainty of getting a jackpot, such as 99% sure you would get a gold or silver jackpot.

This may be calculated as follows:

Let n be the number of missions you need to play

The probability of no jackpot is 1 - 2/10 = 8/10.

The probability of no jackpot in n attempts is equal to the probability of no jackpot in the first attempt AND no jackpot in the second attempt AND ... AND no jackpot in the nth attempt which is (8/10)^n since the probability of the intersection of n independent events is the product of the probabilities.

So the probability of getting a jackpot at least once in n attempts is 1 - (8/10)^n

Since we want to be 99% sure of a jackpot, we require 1 - (8/10)^n to be greater than or equal to 0.99.

Rearranging this we find we need (8/10)^n to be less than or equal to 0.01. Trying some values for n you can see that (8/10)^20 = 0.01153 and (8/10)^21 = 0.00922 and so you should play 21 missions in order to be 99% sure of a jackpot at least once.

If you got 2 golds and 4 silver the odds per above were in your favor.

3,442Finally some recognition for the f’n mathematical genius I am ............ deep, practically unnoticeable......... inside. Brains and rage my friends.

1,3142,065Chronus's explained is funny.

If hundred people would do 21 missions. 99 of them would get at least 1 jackpot (but probably more) 1 person would get screwed and got f'in none...

All one average though, because the chance if 100 people would do 21 missions and (only) 1 would get no jackpot would be a very small chance of actually happening.

Chances are so much fun...

And very counter intuitive for anyone in general...

1,31423559They know all about the RNG's and 1,2,3's

179409Flatulent person