Jackpot odds- am I not understanding?

OK, I will be the first to admit math is not my strongest suit. However, the odds of getting an all silver jackpot are stated as 15%, and the odds of all gold as 5%. I have run approximately 84 challenge missions during this event, and had two gold jackpots and four silver. It would seem the odds are not in my favour, or maybe I am misunderstanding the probabilities?
Killdozer187_Jenng

Comments

  • Killdozer187_Killdozer187_ Member Posts: 391
    well I've had one and this is it and I'm at 37.2 rsl

    So the odds suck for everybody lol
    JenngMrLuckySPC_TORRESromeo
  • TripodTripod Member Posts: 130
    > @Raven2318 said:
    > OK, I will be the first to admit math is not my strongest suit. However, the odds of getting an all silver jackpot are stated as 15%, and the odds of all gold as 5%. I have run approximately 84 challenge missions during this event, and had two gold jackpots and four silver. It would seem the odds are not in my favour, or maybe I am misunderstanding the probabilities?

    But there's only a 20% chance of that lol
    JenngCronus
  • romeoromeo Member Posts: 638
    Gotten countless jackpot
    But hey
    XP...
    Jenng
  • dlbdlb Member Posts: 299
    I'm so lucky I got 2 cans of blue sardines and 7 experience boxes on a gear run.
    Jenng
  • CrashOutCrashOut Member Posts: 24
    Got 6 green weapons in one of my gold jackpots. Had to pay the 15 gold for the next 3 to try get something descent.
  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,212
    Nope, your assumptions are incorrect. You're treating the probability of the event being dependent on a prior result. In this case getting either jackpot the first time does not affect the probability of getting a jackpot the next time, which makes the events independent. You need to multiply the product of the probabilities. If you have a dependent event then you can do exactly what you did which is to take the % and multiply by the total number of events to get the expected outcome (100 events * 15% chance = 15 expected occurrences).
    JenngSCBMA
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 2,051
    On average 5 out of 100 would be gold. The chance to get exactly that, isn't as big as one might think. It is the biggest chance though.


    Chronus's explained is funny.
    If hundred people would do 21 missions. 99 of them would get at least 1 jackpot (but probably more) 1 person would get screwed and got f'in none...

    All one average though, because the chance if 100 people would do 21 missions and (only) 1 would get no jackpot would be a very small chance of actually happening.

    Chances are so much fun...
    And very counter intuitive for anyone in general...
    JenngSCBMA
  • CronusCronus Member Posts: 1,212
    If the RNG is independent for determining chances (meaning rerolled after every mission) I stand by what I wrote. That is the correct calculation. If the RNG is somehow dependent, then the math changes. If after you complete your first mission the next 20 outcomes after a mission is determined the math will be much closer to 5 gold jackpots per 100 missions. But even this becomes a mix of dependent and independent events since the next 20 outcomes after initial 20 behave independently. To be truly dependent NG would somehow have to predict the future and know in advance how many missions you'd complete. Then they could distribute the chances among that exact number of events.
    SCBMAJenng
  • fishyfishy Member Posts: 23
    heads or tails...tails or heads, life's a lottery...then you're dead
    SCBMAJenng
  • Killdozer187_Killdozer187_ Member Posts: 391
    Ask my bookies at NG

    They know all about the RNG's and 1,2,3's
  • DrPsychedelicDrPsychedelic Member Posts: 177
    edited February 2019
    Que Scott Stiener Sacrifice...
  • flyingcowkingflyingcowking Member Posts: 409
    I got a LOT of Bronze Jackpots
    Flatulent person
    JadenJenng
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