In Game Math and Theory Crafting Complications

Hey! My name is Sky. I'm rarely the type to make forum posts for a game, much more of an observer, but I've run out of reasonable options for a problem I'm having:

I love developing tools for video games. I've developed a wide variety of tools and other things for an wide variety of games over several years. It's just my thing. We all have our things.

TWD NML has coincidentally become the topic of my biggest project so far as I attempt to learn new methods for theory crafting (etc.).

It is nothing too crazy, I just like playing with the math of video games. However, over the past several months I have searched time and time again, over every potential source available to me, and I cannot find some very crucial numbers.

I have an archive where I've compiled all the information I've been able to dig up and I've learned a few key things:

1) There are many mechanics in this game that have been implemented that very few people seem to be aware of (they're very hard to find info on).

2) There are many conflicting theories about how mechanics like body shots and critical strike damage are applied and how they interact with other elements of the game.

I'm not asking for you to open the flood gates and to give me all the secrets of the universe... but would it really be that bad if we knew the default chance for a ranged survivor to body shot prior to level difference considerations?


  • Killdozer187_Killdozer187_ Member Posts: 385
    I hope you can solve the riddle to the legendary DR shortage
  • Dbl_Edge_DEPDbl_Edge_DEP Member Posts: 552

    i only have 3 or 4 and i spent about $300,000 on this game.

    I started cracking up when I read that. Only cause it pails in comparison to my... wait for it... theoretical £312,506. Come swim with the "whales" mayn.
    I plan for the best and I plan for the worst - Dbl Edge
    Show and prove, otherwise humble thyself
    Catch me on LINE app - Line ID: dbledgedep
  • Dbl_Edge_DEPDbl_Edge_DEP Member Posts: 552
    @iSkyi Professor Earthtones would have been one of the best people to work with on this but I understand he retired from the game at one point.
    I plan for the best and I plan for the worst - Dbl Edge
    Show and prove, otherwise humble thyself
    Catch me on LINE app - Line ID: dbledgedep
  • StHallStHall Member Posts: 70

    @Killdozer187_ exactly.
    I have NO gold DR badges. And I've been playing this game since 1972.

    That's impossible!! NML has only been out since 1975!!
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Bill_ZRT Thank you for the concern, I actually really appreciate it. It is nice that several people took the time to comment on this post, it made my night seeing that! Fortunately, I was already completely aware of their reluctance to share information on in-game mechanics... I've done this pretty hardcore for a while now, and I've learned to expect this far more often than transparency.

    Over time, I've learned to approach requests for information with an equal amount of opaqueness. For example, I actually already know 'exactly' how the data values for body shot % chance modifiers are retrieved and communicated inside the game. I know how many different factors play a role in its final value, and I even know where the specific values are pulled from, in what format, and under what circumstances (I could even retrieve the values if I were eager to breach terms of services, but I'm not).

    Even more interesting is I know of many red flags in the game that, in all my time reading over other player's attempts to collaborate on theory crafting, I have never seen mentioned. It makes me curious if people are aware of these features, if they work the way I believe they may, or if perhaps it is a misinterpretation on my end. More than anything, I'd just like a easier route for communication between various members of the community with similar interests in understanding the underlying math and mechanics of the game and also those that worked to build it all. Seriously, thank you again for the reply!
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Killdozer187_ @Dbl_Edge_DEP I know you were likely kidding about the DR shortage, but it may actually be something that can be looked into... it is hard to say. I'll see what I can find out.
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    Wow I love the fact people do this sort of thing, just read up a little on what theory crafting is. One question though is not sure what you mean by “red flags”. Or am I just being stupid?
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid I mean that I've 'stumbled' across evidence that suggests that many aspects of the combat math for this game are not just difficult to find information on, but also difficult to pinpoint correlation for. An example would be critical strike damage. There are a lot of really great threads on this forum discussing theories for how the actual critical strike dmg is calculated. A frequent theory I see, for example, is that crit dmg multiplier varies from class to class and they may even have ranges of variance within themselves. I've found evidence that they may have a similar relationship with level difference (b/w target and attacker) to one that body shots have. This would make verifying/using the findings of previous players very difficult.
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    Gotcha, thanks for the reply sky, it’s amazing how a little knowledge can help optimise your game play and always found it strange how little information is given out for this game. Without OLT’s bible I wouldn’t have a clue how half of this game works. I don’t know if it was intentional but I think it has really helped develop the community that exists today. As in without the forum and he discussions of ideas I think I would have quit years ago with frustration.
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid I almost fully agree with you there, but what they did was against the grain. They performed a two part process: 1) Gather data/information on the topics at hand. 2) Analyze, interpret, and create/conclude based on what was found in step 1.

    What everyone discusses is point #2, because point #2 is interesting, useful, and impressive. Making the information on the mechanics difficult to access doesnt facilitate the creative aspect of the process... it just hinders step 1. I have my theories as to why so much info is withheld, but they are harsh and subjective so I'll refrain hahaha
  • Dbl_Edge_DEPDbl_Edge_DEP Member Posts: 552
    @iSkyi I was being serious at the DR badge drop rates. They are significantly low. In fact, a common theme you will find, is that CC badges are most common, where DR is the opposite. There doesn't seem to be a certain way to create DR badges whether low or high quality, that reduces my enjoyment in the game. I get to +10RSL, then I have to throw in the towel.

    @StHall one person on this post is lying about when the game was released... and I don't think I can handle the truth of who it was, my heart can't bear it at this time lol.
    I plan for the best and I plan for the worst - Dbl Edge
    Show and prove, otherwise humble thyself
    Catch me on LINE app - Line ID: dbledgedep
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    @iSkyi have you done anything with regards to who walkers choose to attack? My theory is they will attack the leader wherever possible but the other theory is they attack the survivor who can cause the most damage?
  • ADPaqADPaq Member Posts: 299
    @Firekid I have another, more cynical view. They attack whoever is most likely to end up in red and therefore spend the most time in hospital.

    Utterly anecdotal, but I have noticed that when there are two or more survivors to choose from the one that is already injured is always attacked first if possible. But maybe it's all just RNG, right?
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    But what if you had 3 scouts who haven’t been hit and would all struggle in one hit? And I’m pretty sure it’s not RNG.
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid @ADPaq I'm pretty certain I can give you a definitive answer on this topic. I'll have to check my notes when I get back to my computer, but here is a summary of what I know so far: The game's method for allowing certain unit behaviors is by ascribing a "faction" to them. It's a bin that they may temporarily belong to for the purpose of determining allowed actions, frequent behaviors, and even some events. Within those bins, characteristics are attached to specific units to further specify their role in the game. For example, "raider" would be a faction. "Walker" would be a faction. Walker type would be a characteristic. Alertness state would be another characteristic. The decisions they make are based on many different factors. It runs through a checklist, basically, of all the characteristics in play to make a choice for the Walker.
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid @ADPaq A value is calculated for potential targets, being set to 0 if they are killed, nulled in some other manner, in a struggle, etc. This game goes very, very far out of its way to not perform calculations, however. Almost all information is pre-existing and simply applied to an object. I bring this up because it would lead me to assume that certain conditions take precedence over others, rather than all of them coming together to create a net output that is used to make a choice.
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    In case anyone is watching this thread to see if anything comes up, I thought I'd share this: I made a tool today to get the answers I want since it is looking like I won't get a response from anyone from Next. So far I've gathered a lot of evidence to support theories that have been mentioned in the past:

    1) The three range classes do not share a base body shot chance (before level difference considerations).

    2) ASL, which is equal to level (+ 1 if hero) (+stars over 5, AKA pink stars), difference with a target walker's level, "Level Difference," impacts body shot chance equally for all 6 classes. There are unique values for body shot chance at the following level differences: 2 (and below), 3, 4, 5 (and above). At 2, the level-based body shot chance is 0% (only base amount is in play, so melee survivors won't body shot). At 5 and above, it is 100% (so for melee and ranged, the only way to not body shot is w/ razor (melee) or piercing (ranged). Those are confirmed. The following values, however, were calculated w/ the tool: At 3, ~33.33%, at 4, ~66.66%. I will update these numbers in the future as more data points are collected.

    3) Critical strike chance is very likely (like 90% confident) to be affected by level difference the exact same way body shot chance is... and before anyone thinks I am accidentally attributing it to level diff when its just body shot making it happen less frequently, I am taking that into account.

    4) As a very specified fun fact, in case anyone is interested... so far the 400 data points at level diff of 2 and below have the base body shot chance for hunters at exactly 1%. I just found that interesting.
  • DonCoquiDonCoqui Member Posts: 580
    iSkyi said:

    I actually already know 'exactly' how the data values for body shot % chance modifiers are retrieved and communicated inside the game. I know how many different factors play a role in its final value, and I even know where the specific values are pulled from, in what format, and under what circumstances (I could even retrieve the values if I were eager to breach terms of services, but I'm not).

    Staying plugged in w/ the forum for a good dose of daily entertainment .
    "You wanna impress me? You take the wheel for a little while mofo." --Eddie Murphy, Delirious
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @DonCoqui I'm sorry, I don't understand.
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    edited July 2019
    @iSkyi what about the chance of a walker getting a critical hit on your survivor? I’m guessing that’s dependant on ASL difference too. You got any info on that?
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid As a matter of fact, I do. Similar to there being threshold ASL diff values for bodyshot chance when attacking a walker, there is a threshold at which point every hit from an enemy walker is a critical strike. The exceptions to this are with armor that provides a chance for the walker to body shot and when dodge activates... in which case the critical strike is reduced to a normal attack (you don't dodge anymore).
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,949
    @iSkyi care to share what level that is and is it the same for melee and ranged? 😁
    Doing a great job by the way keep it up!
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @Firekid so information I provide under this specific context can't be guaranteed to still be a feature, but I did go through every patch in the past 2 years to track changes in information I'd collected from various forums, posts, and other sources. It's just possible I missed something. With that said...

    Seems like the game works on a consistent, reoccurring theme of 2;3;4;5. LVLDiff < 2 = 2 and LVLDiff > 5 = 5. The threshold for walkers always critically striking is said to be that 5+ category.

    This is the only information I've provided so far that I have yet to personally look into. I'll try to remember to check it out tommorow for exact confirmation.
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 1,933
    I must say, luring at this post, I truly am jealous of your ability to make a tool for this.

    Critical hit chance
    Body-shot chance
    Scout charge attack damage boost. (It seems to be a percentage but not of your entire damage)
    Chance of walking past a walker, is it level dependant?

    But also things like: having destructive, power-strike, ruthless, weekly bonus, etc all together.
    There are still some uncertainty there for me.

    One of wich is actually if a critical damage badge and destructive are added percentages or if they are seperate multipliers.

    The variations on damage output make it a nasty chore to find out.

    I wish you good luck and I would love to see more of those hard-to-determine dynamics unveiled.
  • jimmorrison369jimmorrison369 Member Posts: 1,933
    Also, as you may or may not know, I'm pretty good a dissecting complex matrixes of data to find correlation.

    So if you have data of some sort I would love to analyse it to find the absolute truth about how damage in- and output is calculated.

    Something like a survivor that has a +badge a %badge in damage, also has powerstrike or charging. Ruthless all together. Having them do like 100 hits with all the above and can compare when 1 of above is absent. That's valuable data.

    Etc etc.
  • BurmeliinisBurmeliinis Member Posts: 272
    Regarding badge crafting, it seems pretty clear that the reason there is so little information about it is due to 3 simple facts.

    1. The amount of combinations in recipes is quite large and a player’s total amount of badges is low, so getting a large enough dataset is hard.

    2. Some players have aquired large datasets, possibly through questionable means, meaning they naturally are unwilling to share their info.

    3. There is very little evidence that recipes even have any effect on crafting so the vast majority of players do not even consider kerping a tally of recipe and results.
  • iSkyiiSkyi Member Posts: 21
    @jimmorrison369 Hi! My personal notes contain a lot of information from you, you've been very helpful in my investigations since you often explain the misconceptions about these topics in posts about them.

    Everything you mentioned, I too have faced as obstacles in this. Some of the information I have found answers for. Some of it I have found evidence for how it MAY work... and some I may never have a clue, but I will share this with you once back at my pc.
Sign In or Register to comment.