Are we really having double tokens calls?

Today: Morgan

7 calls made, 105 radios

1x 256 Morgan tokens

36,57 tokens per call

2,46 tokens per radio

Sorry NG, but I'm not stupid.
romeoRiotZappaPigBenisShadowWalkerflyingcowking
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Comments

  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,204
    Agree, the odds aren't great on these calls. I've only been seeing 64 since we've been having them and a lot of the time, all green goblins...
    DanielBezATLAS-Zromeo
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,695
    But if it wasn’t a double you would have got 128 and an even shitter return on your phones. I also had crap luck on my Morgan calls today. 130+ phones and 1 X256 and 2X64. Even worse was my partner got 2 x256 and 1x 516 and the rest 64 out of the same amount of phones! 😥
    DanielBez
  • DanielBezDanielBez Member Posts: 99
    > @Firekid said:
    > But if it wasn’t a double you would have got 128 and an even shitter return on your phones. I also had crap luck on my Morgan calls today. 130+ phones and 1 X256 and 2X64. Even worse was my partner got 2 x256 and 1x 516 and the rest 64 out of the same amount of phones! 😥

    I think I would prefer Firekid, a 5 radio call with more chance to win tokens. We had it with Jesus and other heroes. I bought a bundle today because I had hope to win 500 tokens to put a second pink on my Morgan . But.... 😢
  • FirekidFirekid Member Posts: 1,695
    I never liked those 5 calls, always seemed to get 2 browns on them or if it was the hero just 10 of them. Which would be 30 tokens for 15 calls or much less. I do feel that NG need to find a good balance of 5, double and 40 calls though to suit everyone’s needs.
    DanielBez
  • ATLAS-ZATLAS-Z Member Posts: 2,484
    I blew almost 200 radios and only got a few 64s nothing higher
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    DanielBez
  • romeoromeo Member Posts: 608
    5 calls for all green goblins & 64 Eugene.
    Not seeing any Morgans
    DanielBez
  • maku11maku11 Member Posts: 25
    yeah. I tried 10 calls and got just 128 Morgans
    I was so unlucky or something changed
    DanielBezromeoDbl_Edge_DEP
  • psychwolfpsychwolf Member Posts: 1,204
    I've heard from many people in my guild that they've had terrible luck with this call. More than the usual.
    DanielBezromeobigbeano
  • Huricane444Huricane444 Member Posts: 144
    edited August 27
    Pss
    ....
    DanielBez
  • Austin_ShiongAustin_Shiong Member Posts: 20
    A lot of players save their phones for new Rick, Daryl and Glenn's double call, we all know that. No wonder NG did some changes on the 2x call to prevent us from getting to many alt heroes tokens.
    DanielBezromeoATLAS-Z
  • GovernatorGovernator Member Posts: 3,577
    Yeah, sample size is not good. 7 calls, not one single Morgan token. But I did get 128 Maggie and 32 Tara. The rest were Green Goblins. RNG hated me yesterday. :|
    xbamfx
  • BilldingerBilldinger Member Posts: 176
    5 calls, 32 Dwight tokens...Suck it NG.
  • FluxxxFluxxx Community Manager Posts: 307
    Yes we are having the double calls more often, but we haven't changed anything with the calls or their odds. This call has the same set-up as all of the previous double calls.
    DanielBezTCBRITOromeoATLAS-Zxbamfx
  • Verdao1914Verdao1914 Member Posts: 11
    With each passing day the game gets less exciting! I fully agree with what Daniel is talking about. The calls were yes modified or if they were not supposed to be. I don't think it's fair to have put 2500 phones to invest in Survivalist Rick and hand me an average of less than 30 Tokens per call! I have recorded all my 166 calls and I can say: YES, ARE FOOLING THE PLAYERS!
    romeoDanielBezbigbeanoxbamfx
  • Verdao1914Verdao1914 Member Posts: 11
    > @xbamfx said:
    > Sorry about your luck but I killed it on this call 900 radios I think close to 2500 tokens. People really need to stop using a sample size on 5-10 calls lol.

    I made 166 calls and the average was less than 30 Tokens! I don't think the problem is sampling!
    DanielBez
  • tjhookrtjhookr Member Posts: 41
    edited August 27
    30 token/call is almost the statistical average you should get on double calls, op was actually really lucky to get 2.46 per radio
  • vshield50vshield50 Member Posts: 1,926
    When was the last Michonne call? Was it this year?
    ShayHaxbamfx
  • rchaprchap Member Posts: 81
    Larger sample size. I used 700 radios on Morgan and got 960 of his tokens. Seems like the return should be higher.
    xbamfx
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 153
    Does anyone remember:
    - the percentage chance to get Morgan tokens?
    - the percentage chance to get 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 tokens for him (which are then doubled)?
  • GrendelGrendel Member Posts: 153
    My theory:
    1) Sometimes NG secretly boosts the percentages or simply gives us the prize due to some marketing strategy to keep us engaged in the calls.
    2) When NG doesn't do that, it makes the call results seem worse even if they are statistically correct.
    3) And then there's simple dumb luck.
  • MarlowMarlow Member Posts: 1
    Morgan's calls had a 14% chance of getting his tokens, although I don't remember the breakout percentages of the 64, 128, etc. That 14% chance also means every call has an 86% chance of not getting his tokens, regardless of calling 1x or 100x.

    I made 35 calls and got Morgan tokens 17 times, 48.6% of the time, which was higher than my normal double call percentages. 14 of the calls were 64 tokens and 3 were 256 tokens, totaling 1664 tokens.

    A month or so ago when there was the first Huntsman Daryl call, I made 82 calls and got Daryl tokens 29 times (35.4%). 21 were 64 tokens and 8 were 256 tokens.

    I don't have my Stabby Rick numbers from a few weeks ago, but I had a lower percentage of hits although some were 512 token calls.

    I tend to hoard phones for 4-6 weeks before spending them on a 2x call. As a sample population of one, I'm seeing decent results compared to the posted 14% chance.
    SPC_TORRESxbamfx
  • rchaprchap Member Posts: 81
    The posted chance applies to each card. So saying you had Morgan shown on 17 calls, means that his card came up 17 times out of 105 chances (35 calls) (assuming he didn't show more than once in each call). That's 16%, which is reasonably close to the posted probability.
    Grendelcrambert_necWellyLugajimmorrison369
  • DrJankDrJank Member Posts: 6
    edited August 27
    It's annoying to calculate, but relatively easy to simulate.

    Assuming 14% double hero rate, and probabilities of 84%, 15%, 1%, and doing a couple sets of 10 million calls, you get about 37 tokens of the selected hero per call, or about 2.467 tokens per call. I'm ignoring other hero tokens here.

    FWIW, the all alternate hero call gives you about 3.7 tokens per phone, assuming the same distribution of probabilities.

    Here's a bit of R code if you want to play around with it: https://pastebin.com/C3fTgtJT

    ETA: Oh, and the probability of getting any double token hero on a single call is 1 - (1 - 0.14)^3, or 37%
    tjhookr
  • reekookrreekookr Unconfirmed, Member Posts: 57
    edited August 28
    Well the percentages are faked, cause during this 40 call, i get 1 star hero, that shouldnt be possible
    xbamfx
  • xbamfxxbamfx Member Posts: 960
    @Verdao1914 I don’t know how you calculate it on your end but it’s 2x call for me. Last 2 times the huntsman Daryl call came I did approximately 75 calls both times maybe first time I did close to 100 calls. First event ratio 3.38HD tokens per radio, on second HD event I only got 2.32HD per radio but I also did less calls. When you say less than 30 tokens per call I’m assuming you’re pretty close to the 2.0 ratio per radio which means X2 is in effect lol. If you get more than 2.0 which is basic luck I’ll agree, you have nothing to complain about. It’s all in the slot machine roll mechanics, some hit jackpot and some don’t. Sorry, I hope you get better results next time 😉.
  • DrJankDrJank Member Posts: 6
    Here's a histogram of doing 166 calls 10,000 times, using the above assumptions.

    Less than 30 tokens per call is clearly unlucky, but not extremely unlikely - happens about 10% of the time.


    jimmorrison369
  • DanielBezDanielBez Member Posts: 99
    > @xbamfx said:
    > @Verdao1914 I don’t know how you calculate it on your end but it’s 2x call for me. Last 2 times the huntsman Daryl call came I did approximately 75 calls both times maybe first time I did close to 100 calls. First event ratio 3.38HD tokens per radio, on second HD event I only got 2.32HD per radio but I also did less calls. When you say less than 30 tokens per call I’m assuming you’re pretty close to the 2.0 ratio per radio which means X2 is in effect lol. If you get more than 2.0 which is basic luck I’ll agree, you have nothing to complain about. It’s all in the slot machine roll mechanics, some hit jackpot and some don’t. Sorry, I hope you get better results next time 😉.

    @Verdao1914 was saying that he made 166 calls, using 15 phones each one. The result was about 30 tokens per call. Right?
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