Did 14 radio calls, didn't get a single Hunter, likely at a 0.3% probability, indicating glitch

I am on chapter 4, but have not yet completed it. Due to that, I would think that I'd only be able to call Scouts, Bruisers, and Hunters. I assume all the types of survivors have an equal probability of being called. That would mean I'd expect to get a Hunter about 1/3 of the time when I make a radio call. Over the event weekend, I made 14 calls (using 15 phones each time), using all the phones I had ever gained. I got only Scouts and Bruisers. Everyone seems to agree that Hunters are much more useful than Scouts and Bruisers. If the probability of getting a Hunter was 33.33%, then the probability of me not get a single Hunter with 14 calls is 0.3%. Yes, way less than 1 percent. I think my game is bugged which caused me to not get a single hunter, thus essentially wasting 210 phones (all the phones I ever got) because I was looking to get an additional Hunter.

I would like to get my phones reimbursed to my account. This also means that I was deprived of the increased drop rates for Epic and Legendary survivors event when trying to get a Hunter, so I won't have a good chance of getting an Epic or Legendary survivor until the next event. I can provide screenshots of the entire situation and more information if necessary. Thank you for any assistance.

Comments

  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    The probabilities are not equal across all classes. The first character class you start with is scout. No matter how high your level is, scout is always the highest probability when you call.

    The remaining order depends on what classes are unlocked.

    After that is shooter.

    Then warrior.

    Next, hunter.

    Finally assault.

    Why? Because the game parallels the show. Yes, hunters are more useful, but since season 2, the survivors rely more on melee skills whenever possible. 1) Bullets are a finite resource and must be conserved. 2) Firearms attract walkers. Handguns are used more often than rifles and semiautomatic assault weapons.

    I have kept track of all my pulls since starting the game in early December. I have made 136 calls. I have drawn 39 scouts, 31 bruisers, and 9 hunters.

    Shooters, hunters, and assaults were unlocked after the first radio event I participated in, so I did not include them here. Now that they are all unlocked, I am starting to track a new data set.
    image
  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    TL/DR version. It wasn't a bug. It was luck of the draw. They won't give you your radios back.
    image
  • AlibabaAlibaba Member Posts: 1,275
    @Tony1 Not a bug, moving to general section of forum.

    Alibaba lvl49
    LINE me: princealibabwa
    Aegis Official FB Page
  • RustyOrcRustyOrc Member Posts: 51
    I have gone to 30 radio calls without hunters in the past. Then suddenly get a whole bunch.

    Again, the random number generator in the game is not very good.
  • eetueetu Member Posts: 637
    lyrgard said:

    If the random number generator give results we don't expect, then it has more chance to be good random number generator than a poor one.

    You, Sir, get the most insightful comment of the day award.
    ggbatslunaranlmfgunnutTheLostOnes
  • eetueetu Member Posts: 637
    Tony1 said:

    If the probability of getting a Hunter was 33.33%, then the probability of me not get a single Hunter with 14 calls is 0.3%. Yes, way less than 1 percent.

    While it doesn't rule out the possibility of a bug, if you look at the app stores there are several million downloads of the game, and thus the odds of someone happening on a 0.3% probability event are, well, good :/
    Jennylmfgunnut
  • Neil_JNeil_J Member Posts: 1,873
    I made 1/15 call yesterday and got a 11/19 epic hunter, therefore a hunter return rate of 100%.

    Remember: The are lies, damned lies and statistics!
    “You never know how strong you are until being strong is your only option.” (Bob Marley)
    ant
  • jesterjester Member Posts: 2,752
    The odds are equal for each class, across the board.
  • DanaDana Member Posts: 115
    edited March 2016
    Sorry @Tony1 you expecting a hunter is like me expecting a legend. Ive been playing since November and have yet to 'call' a legend of any class. Im a level 42 with a maxed out radio tent...denied!
    Stonewall Guild/Six Shooter Posse
    Sierrasanchezi910Zeena
  • NomadslandNomadsland Member Posts: 36
    So I probably shouldn't mention that I've only been playing about 3 weeks and I've gotten 4 hunters out of about 10 radio calls... 2 of them epics
    Shoot first think NEVER!
    sanchezi910
  • OvidmikelOvidmikel Member Posts: 965
    I get nothing but hunters it seems or scouts. Lol. All epics and leg this weekend gotta hold your mouth right lol
  • blynknzblynknz Member Posts: 1,988
    All I have ever pulled are rare hunters. Therefore there can't be any Epic hunters in the game.
    Zeena
  • Shut_UpShut_Up Member Posts: 2,295
    Only progressing to episode 4 and having 3 classes may have to opposite effect you're looking for. Maybe you haven't progressed far enough to get another ranged weapon survivor. I know early on I had trouble getting hunters. I think people have more trouble drawing hunters than any other class in general.
    ggbatsZeena
  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    edited March 2016
    @eetu, with a little adjustment, you need this meme to award as called for

    image
    rgerkman
  • JennyJenny Member Posts: 346
    @lyrgard You forgot confirmation bias. ;-)
  • SierraSierra Member Posts: 71
    @thebluebox , I can't find it right now but the mods confirmed that all survivors are equally likely to come up. Meaning if you only have Scout, Hunter, and Bruiser available then there is a 33.3% chance you will get a Hunter.
  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    I never actually saw that. I was going by what my guildies told me. It seems the entire guild get the same order of frequency with minor variations. That's why I started tracking it. My personal data reflected what they said, so it seemed that the variables are close. Is it possible the actual algorithm has a slight variance, like 35% scout, 33% bruiser, and 31% hunter? with a +/- 2% distribution, that would be considered statistically even. When dealing with 6 classes, the expected distribution is 16.66%. Anything within a +/-3% would be considered statistically even. So, hunter could have a probability of 13.66% with a scout at 19.67% and still be considered statistically even.

    Then again, each roll is generated on it's own. So, we are in the realm of permutation rather than standard percentile distribution.
    image
  • Tony1Tony1 Member Posts: 12
    @thebluebox, you state "Anything within a +/-3% would be considered statistically even" like it's always true. I can't have people who read your post going out into the world believing that. During election seasons, you see a lot of polls that state that the margin of error is around +/-3%. That means that if the poll shows that one candidate is getting 52% of the vote, and another candidate is getting 48% of the vote, then it's statistically the same. (Some poor-quality polls have larger margins of error around +/-7%) This scenario cannot simply be applied to anything with percentages.

    It could be "statistically even", as you describe it, if I only made 100 radio calls, and I got a Scout 31 times, a Bruiser 33 times, and a Hunter 36 times. Those numbers are pretty much even given that small sample size of 100. It would NOT be "statistically even" if your tracking was based on your entire guild's radio calls and you all had a total of 100,000 radio calls and got a Scout 31% of the time, a Bruiser 33% of the time, and a Hunter 36% of the time. That sample size is so large that any small percentage difference between the results would indicate a statistically significant difference, or a statistically real difference, caused by something real and not just a fluke in sampling. The cause creating the statistically real difference would likely be due to Next Games programming in this hypothetical case.

    I wasn't really even using statistics in my original post, I was only using simple math to produce a totally accurate probability given an equal 33.33% chance of calling each class, but statistics has found its way into the discussion. Obviously someone doing 1 radio call and getting a Hunter does not mean that the rate of getting Hunters is 100%, and if someone really does do 30 radio calls and doesn't get a single Hunter, then it is very bad luck if not a glitch. If the game's random number generator is really bad, then that's a different story and should be fixed. If the rates of calling each class are truly the same, then my situation would be very unlikely (less than 0.3% chance of happening), but bound to happen eventually to someone. But with Next Games' record of glitches, it's easy to think that it's caused by a glitch (or maybe a bad random number generator) and not just poor luck.
  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    It's actually a permutation, if I remember my Freshman college Statistics class. Unfortunately, I don't remember the equation to go with it.

    Every call is a separate probability. 1:3 chance per pull. With a coin toss, there is a 1:2 chance of landing on heads. Flipping a coin 20 times would yield 10 heads, right? Well no. I might flip it 20 times and get 18 heads. You might flip it 20 times and get 7 heads. As the sample size gets larger, the results will approach 50%. It's a permutation, not a simple probability.
    image
  • NCDawgFanNCDawgFan Member Posts: 2,070
    I made one call this afternoon from my fully maxed radio tent (when I noticed I had 15 radios banked) and pulled an Epic Hunter. Unfortunately it was a 9/18 so it has a long way to go to help my team. I have a 17/17 and a 16/16 Hunter already, both 3 stars. This radio calling is a crap shoot at best. My first Legendary pull was a scout who lives in my Outpost because he is of little use to me on missions. My second is a shooter who gets used more than the scout, but not much more. I rely on my level 17 warriors and hunters the most unless the mission faces a herd then I carry one or two assults.
  • Tony1Tony1 Member Posts: 12
    @thebluebox, I have a Master's degree in Statistics from a rigorous program. This is simple math to me, as I stated, and it's a mathematical fact that the probability of the scenario I outlined is 0.3%, if all classes are equally likely.

    Using your coin example, if we were having some fun flipping a coin, and I really wanted heads, and you flipped the coin 14 times and it came up tails every time, I would be likely to call shenanigans and accuse you of using a double-tailed coin, especially if you had a record of being untrustworthy (glitchy in Next Game's case). Flipping a coin 8 times and getting all tails is almost as likely as my no-Hunter situation.
  • theblueboxthebluebox Member Posts: 807
    @Tony1 Valid point. I was a history major and just barely remember permutations. The only practical application I have had is compounding interest on my home loan. I do have to analyze statistical data when archiving antique postal records (18 ledgers of COD records from the 1940s) or assisting with other areas of research. Mostly, I am looking and accounting for outliers.

    Without actually seeing the algorithm, your guess is probably a bit better than mine. I noted a trend and based my hypothesis on that. You seem to have the mathematical background to explain the apparent problem.

    Curious though, am I correct in that we are dealing with a permutation as the number of tries increases?

    (Googling a good statistics refresher course...)
    image
  • NomadslandNomadsland Member Posts: 36
    blynknz said:

    All I have ever pulled are rare hunters. Therefore there can't be any Epic hunters in the game.

    Whatever the blue outlined ones are, lol. I don't read stuff!
    Shoot first think NEVER!
  • NecroboogieNecroboogie Member Posts: 1,108
    Awesome swag bag even without a hunter ;)
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